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ETH Standard Chartered Bank: With a target price of US$10 at the end of 2030, Arbitrum (ARB) is expected to outperform Bitcoin and Ethereum
On September 15, Standard Chartered Bank released its first coverage report on the Arbitrum (ARB) token, setting its target price of US$10 at the end of 2030. The bank predicts that ARB will outperform Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) in the next few years.
As of September 15, ARB was trading at US$0.14, which means that the target price for the end of 2030 is about 70 times the current price. Standard Chartered expects that by the end of 2030, Bitcoin will reach US$500,000 and Ethereum will reach US$40,000. In contrast, the potential increase rate of ARB far exceeds that of these two mainstream cryptocurrencies.
Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, based this prediction on a trend he believes will define the next four years: traditional financial institutions are building their own blockchain networks. As a Layer-2 solution, Arbitrum is at the center of this argument, providing a technology stack for companies to launch their own chain and charging a fee for each use.
Rubinhood Chain rewrites Arbitrum's revenue model
Under the "Arbitrum Extension Plan"(AEP), Arbitrum will receive a rolling fee of 10% of net revenue from all external chains built based on its technology. Of this 10%, 8% goes to the Arbitrum Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO) treasury, and the remaining 2% goes to developer funds. Kendrick acknowledged that currently ARB holders have no direct claim on these fees and listed this as one of the main risks in the forecast.
Robinhood Chain于7月1日上线，成为AEP模式的第一个主要机构案例。在9月的头两周，其平均每日费用收入为280万美元；截至9月1日，累计用户费用达到375万美元，仅在24小时内就有约37万美元流入Arbitrum。按9月的运行速度计算，Arbitrum当月预计将从AEP中收集约500万美元的费用，这是Robinhood Chain上线前月收入的5倍以上。仅7月份，Robinhood Chain就支付了约36万美元的许可费，占当月Arbitrum DAO总收入的35%。
Kendrick指出，Robinhood Chain早期的活动主要由模因币发射台和交易应用驱动，而非该网络设计初衷所围绕的代币化股票和传统资产。此外，Robinhood还在一个为期90天的计划中为其官方钱包的用户补贴燃气费，该计划预计将于2026年9月底到期。渣打银行还设定了ARB的中期目标价：2026年底为0.50美元，2027年底为1.50美元，2028年底为3.50美元，2029年底为6.50美元。
4万亿美元代币化预测支撑长期看多逻辑
渣打银行的长期论点核心在于代币化现实世界资产（RWAs）的增长。该行预测，到2028年底，代币化资产的总价值将从约3400亿美元增长至4万亿美元。在此期间，仅代币化股票的价值就可能达到7500亿美元。根据RWA(dot)xyz的数据，截至9月15日，累计代币化资产价值接近390亿美元。
Kendrick表示，Robinhood Chain早期的商业成功提高了其他传统金融机构选择Arbitrum技术栈将资产上链的概率。“Robinhood Chain的早期成功增加了类似传统金融链也通过Arbitrum技术栈启动的可能性，”他写道。他还表示，如果收入模式被证明是可持续的，市场可能会重新评估ARB的估值倍数，使其更接近应用于Layer-1区块链的水平。
渣打银行指出了预测中的几项风险：资产代币化速度放缓、来自竞争对手区块链的竞争，以及缺乏向ARB持有者直接分配费用。Kendrick还提到了DTCC在代币化股票方面的工作以及未解决的美国监管问题（包括《清晰法案》），这些因素都可能影响时间表。另外，9月16日将有9260万个ARB解锁。
