赛勒称停滞的CLARITY法案或推动比特币活动

Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor predicts that the failure of the CLARITY bill in the Senate with a 49-50 vote may prompt more capital to flow to Bitcoin.

As U.S. regulators continue to formulate rules for cryptoassets based on existing powers, Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor predicts that the defeat of the CLARITY bill in the Senate may instead become an opportunity to promote funds to flow into Bitcoin.

Summary of Core Views

• The CLARITY bill was 11 votes short of the 60 votes needed for passage and failed to be advanced.
• Thaler expects regulators to move forward without waiting for Congress to vote again.
• According to Thaler, banks may expand Bitcoin custody services and provide loans backed by Bitcoin.
• Both Coinbase and Bernstein believe that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will continue to improve regulations related to cryptoassets.

Michael Siler posted on Platform X (formerly Twitter) stating that despite the stagnation of the CLARITY Act, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Treasury Department can still advance regulatory rules within the current legal framework.

"With the CLARITY bill at a standstill, I expect the SEC, CFTC and Treasury Department to move forward with rulemaking under existing law. But progress does not have to wait for Congress." Siler wrote.

His remarks portrayed the vote's failure as a potential opportunity for Bitcoin's development rather than a sign of a complete stagnation in U.S. crypto policy. According to Siler's analysis, banks can launch more Bitcoin custody services and provide additional loans backed by the asset, thereby opening up new channels for capital entry into the market.

Thaler also mentioned the GENIUS Act, which has established a federal framework for payment stablecoins. Discussing the remaining policy gaps, he added: "The only clarity you need is Bitcoin."

For U.S. investors, Siler's forecast focuses mainly on the services provided by regulated financial institutions. More bank custody options provide clients with another way to hold Bitcoin, while bitcoin-backed loans allow borrowers to obtain cash without immediately selling their positions.

Thaler did not provide a timeline or name any banks preparing such products. His comments described the actions he expected from regulators and financial institutions after Congress failed to advance the Market Structure Act.

作为Strategy的首席执行官，塞勒一直因其监管地位和固定供应量而将比特币与其他数字资产区别对待。此前报道显示，在参议院准备对CLARITY法案进行投票期间，塞勒曾捍卫美国人推广加密货币的权利。在那场辩论中，塞勒主张公职人员和企业领导人应自由支持比特币。当时，Strategy恢复了该资产的购买计划，将其政策立场与公司长期的比特币国库战略紧密相连。

Strategy的敞口也为美国股票投资者提供了一条间接进入比特币市场的途径。这家纳斯达克上市公司的股价通常会对加密货币价格变化、公司采购行为以及为其额外收购筹集资本的方法做出反应。

CLARITY法案未能在参议院60票门槛测试中过关

参议院就终止辩论并推进CLARITY法案进行辩论的程序动议进行了投票，结果为49-50票。由于需要60票才能通过，该提案距离门槛还差11票。

这一程序阶段的失败阻止了参议员们进入全面辩论阶段及潜在的修正案讨论。这并非是对是否批准该立法的全民最终投票。

该法案旨在建立针对数字资产发行、交易和监管的联邦规则。其主要条款之一是将权限划分给SEC和CFTC，使这两个机构在证券和数字商品方面拥有更明确的角色。

The analysis pointed out that before the vote, ethical guidelines, the protection of decentralized finance (DeFi) developers and stablecoin rewards were the main points of controversy. Lawmakers are also divided on terms related to President Donald Trump's crypto-asset interests.

According to the proposal's four-part mature blockchain testing standards, networks that meet decentralization requirements can be classified as digital goods. Assets that fail the test will continue to be subject to securities laws, registration rules and SEC oversight.

The measure was passed in the House of Representatives in July 2025 by a vote of 294-134, with 78 Democrats supporting it. It was subsequently passed by the Senate Banking Committee in May 2026 with a 15-9 vote, but gaining 60 votes in the Senate required bipartisan support.

Although the cloture motion failed, the bill did not automatically disappear from the Senate agenda. If supporters receive enough promises, lawmakers can put it back on the calendar and schedule another vote.

Coinbase and Bernstein expect regulatory action

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong also said the vote should not prevent U.S. regulators from developing clearer rules. Although he expressed disappointment with the results, he believes the SEC and CFTC already have tools that can be used within their current remit.

阿姆斯特朗表示，共和党人与民主党人之间的谈判可能会继续，保留了参议院再次投票的可能性。但他的评论并未确定立法者何时会进行第二次尝试，也未说明吸引60票需要做出哪些改变。

伯恩斯坦分析师在高坦·楚格尼（Gautam Chhugani）领衔的一份报告中提供了类似的评估。据该公司称，在数月的国会谈判未能产生法案后，SEC和CFTC的规则制定可能会变得“激进且迅速”。

分析师确定了代币分类、去中心化金融、自我托管和代币化股票等监管机构可以采取行动的领域。伯恩斯坦还预计，监管机构将解决与代币化现实世界资产相关的产品问题，包括基于此类资产的永续合约和个股。

监管机构制定的规则不具有国会法案同等的法律地位，并且可能在未来的政府更迭中面临法院挑战或政策变动。然而，阿姆斯特朗和伯恩斯坦都预计，监管机构将继续利用现有法规已授予的权力。

银行准入仍是塞勒预测的核心

塞勒的预测也取决于受监管银行是否选择扩展其数字资产业务。托管要求银行 safeguard 客户的比特币，而抵押贷款则引入了信用、风险管理和还款要求。

对于美国加密公司而言，普通银行账户和支付系统的长期访问权一直影响着其运营能力。一份关于美国银行准入的审查解释了美联储支付系统、主账户和商业银行关系如何塑造了数字资产公司可用的服务。

同一份审查指出，包括美国银行、花旗集团、高盛、德意志银行和瑞银在内的21家主要银行已承诺成立一家联合美元稳定币公司，目标定于2027年上半年。这项计划中的合资企业将使传统银行直接与Circle和Tether等既定发行商竞争。

稳定币监管已通过《GENIUS法案》独立取得进展。该法律指示联邦机构为支付稳定币发行人制定规则，包括与许可、储备和监督相关的要求。

财政部于2026年4月提出了实施规则，而货币监理署（OCC）则在2月发布了其自己的《GENIUS法案》拟议监管规定。OCC的提案涵盖由其管辖机构进行的支付稳定币发行及相关活动。

行业高管继续批评CLARITY法案的投票结果。Ripple首席执行官布拉德·加里林豪斯（Brad Garlinghouse）表示政治凌驾于政策之上，并呼吁对该措施失败的原因进行事后复盘。他将结果归咎于民主党人的反对，而谈判部分集中在与特朗普数字资产利益相关的更强道德限制要求上。