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BTC Bitcoin's monthly line showed a historic bottom signal: Fisher Transform indicator issued its fourth golden cross
Although Bitcoin prices have fluctuated between US$76,000 and US$79,000 recently, online analyst Willy Woo used the Fisher Transform indicator to conduct an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin's monthly chart. Woo pointed out that the Fisher transform indicator on the Bitcoin monthly chart has formed a "golden cross". According to his view, this phenomenon has only occurred four times in Bitcoin history and is an extremely rare bottom signal.
is not a signal for a sudden surge.
Woo said that the indicator was developed by John F. Ehlers proposed it in 2002 and was mainly used to identify turning points in Bitcoin's price movement. The current golden cross is the fourth bottom signal in history, and in the previous three occurrences, it has not triggered false breakthroughs.
However, Woo emphasized that this indicator alone cannot be used as a signal for a sudden trend reversal or a direct buy. He pointed out that Bitcoin prices may consolidate sideways for a period of time before continuing the current upward trend. In addition, in past bull cycles, the Fisher Transform indicator has turned from bearish to bullish, but this does not necessarily mean that the main uptrend has ended. Therefore, while the current signal points to a possible bottom, it does not by itself accurately predict a reversal of the trend.
The interest rate increase itself is not a decisive signal that Bitcoin has entered a bear market
加密货币分析师Murphy指出，仅凭美国和日本央行的利率上调决定，并不意味着比特币将重新进入熊市。他认为，货币紧缩的步伐、市场结构以及投资者持仓情况，在决定BTC方向时比单纯的利率上调决策更具决定性作用。
2022年与2023年的市场对比
分析师通过对比历史数据指出，2022年美联储实施了总计425个基点的加息，其中包括6月至11月连续四次每次75个基点的大幅加息。尽管如此，比特币价格仍从约41,000美元下跌至15,800美元。
相比之下，2023年美联储虽四次加息，每次25个基点，但比特币价格却从约16,500美元上升至42,000美元。
分析师还提到，在2015年12月至2017年12月期间，美联储五次加息，每次均为25个基点，比特币价格则从约454美元飙升至16,515美元。
基于这些时期的对比，分析师强调，单纯的利率上调决策并不必然导致比特币价格下跌。目前的比特币市场结构更接近2023年初的条件，而非2022年首次大幅加息时期。当时，通胀率下降，每次加息幅度从75个基点缩减至25个基点，市场开始计价加息周期的结束。
Analysts concluded that if the interest rate increase remains around 25 basis points and the market does not expect a new long-term tightening cycle, interest rate policy alone may not be enough to trigger a new bear market for Bitcoin. The pace and scale of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in the future will become a key factor in determining the trend of Bitcoin.
The above content does not constitute investment advice.
