比特币价格反弹,旧华尔街模式重现
据CoinGecko数据,9月21日美东时间下午4:24,比特币交易价格为86,958美元。过去24小时内,其价格上涨了7.23%,延续了上周抛售后的反弹势头。
“卖在犹太新年,买在赎罪日”
“Sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur”(卖在犹太新年,买在赎罪日)是交易员数十年来反复提及的一种日历效应。传说称,在这两个犹太节日之间,市场往往趋于下跌,从而在赎罪日形成买入机会。尽管这一说法源于股市历史而非加密货币领域,但比特币在赎罪日似乎遵循了这一剧本。
由于赎罪日并非美国联邦市场假日,美国证券交易所周一照常进行常规交易。研究人员对1907年至2008年间道琼斯工业平均指数的每日回报测试了这一格言。他们的研究发现,在犹太新年前做空并在赎罪日后平仓的策略,产生了具有统计意义和经济意义的显著回报。
《股票交易者年鉴》(Stock Trader's Almanac)自1971年以来的数据显示,道琼斯指数在两个节日期间的平均跌幅为0.6%。然而,这一数据需要结合背景来看:2008年金融危机期间,道琼斯指数在该时期暴跌近21%,拉低了平均值。中位数跌幅为0.5%。
空头清算助推比特币反弹
There were more immediate reasons for Monday's market movements than just the calendar effect. Previous reports pointed out that as of late Monday morning, short Bitcoin positions worth $647.9 million had been cleared, part of a total of $746.6 million in Bitcoin liquidations over a 24-hour period.
When a short position is cleared, the exchange will buy Bitcoin to close it. This mandatory buying behavior can accelerate the rebound, as prices tend to trigger more bandwagon buying when they set stop losses through bearish traders.
Bitcoin broke through the $85,000 and $86,000 barriers after the US stock market opened. As oil prices and Treasury yields fell, stocks rallied, supporting demand for tech stocks and other risky assets.
This rally follows a difficult week for the crypto market. The Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act on September 15, causing the proposed federal market structure for digital assets to stall in Congress.

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