伯恩斯坦预测：2035年预测市场规模将达10万亿美元，较原预测增长10倍

Wall Street's expectations for the forecast market expand tenfold

Bernstein's latest forecast shows that by 2035, the annual trading volume of the forecast market industry will reach US$10 trillion. This figure is about 24 times the $410 billion forecast this year and 10 times its previous forecast for 2030.

Bernstein's analyst team led by Gautam Chhugani pointed out in a report sent to clients on Tuesday that trading volume in the industry is expected to grow at a compound rate of about 70% annually by 2035. The industry's overall transaction volume has surged from approximately US$50 billion in 2025 to nearly US$300 billion in the first eight months of 2026.

Financial asset contracts will overtake sports betting as the largest category

Data shows that sports transactions will account for 61% of total transaction volume in 2025, but Bernstein expects this proportion to fall to 38% in 2035. At the same time, the market share of contracts linked to cryptocurrencies, stocks and commodities (collectively referred to as "financial assets") will rise from 12% to 49%, becoming the largest trading category for the first time.

Analysts wrote in the report: "We expect new products such as KPI markets that allow users to trade a single corporate metric (such as production, delivery, or subscriber growth) rather than directly trading the stock price itself." That means investors can make bets on whether the company's shipments will increase this quarter without buying or shorting stocks.

他们补充道：“此外，永续期货正在从加密货币领域扩展至大宗商品和个股领域。”永续期货是指没有到期日的合约，交易者可以无限期持有头寸，而无需在特定日期平仓。

平台数据印证结构性转变

预测市场允许人们就某事是否会发生交易“是”或“否”的合约，范围涵盖美联储利率决议到公司财报等。如果事件发生，每份合约结算为1美元；若未发生，则结算为0美元。因此，价格本身即反映了事件发生的概率预期。

以Kalshi平台为例，其加密货币类交易量占比从1月的不足5%跃升至8月的约20%。该平台的大宗商品交易量也从2025年全年的不足200万美元，飙升至2026年至今的近5.9亿美元，仅8月份就达到4.1亿美元。目前，Kalshi控制了行业约60%的交易量，高于一年前的35%。

机构资金入场重塑市场格局

早在今年4月，伯恩斯坦曾预测预测市场到2030年将实现相对温和的1万亿美元规模，较2025年的510亿美元有所增长。当时他们认为，增长将主要源于机构资金的涌入，而非体育投注规模的扩大。

"We expect an institutional market to emerge around economic, commercial and political contracts as investors seek more direct and independent exposure to specific events." They wrote in their report at the time. At the same time, they also pointed to infrastructure factors driving the shift: "Improved regulatory clarity at the federal level... expands the reach of markets, while blockchain-based tokenization and integration with the cryptocurrency market have enabled global liquidity, the creation of long tail events, and institutional participation."

This time, the expected window for ten-fold growth is extended from 2030 to 2035, indicating that Bernstein tracked data during the summer makes its April forecast seem too conservative.

The potential market is huge

Bernstein estimates that the current potential betting pool for cryptocurrencies, stocks and commodities alone is as high as US$70 trillion and will grow to US$90 trillion by 2035. Even if the market is forecast to capture only 0.5% of this, the annual trading volume of financial contracts alone will reach US$4.7 trillion, not including any sports bets.

Vlad Tenev, founder and CEO of Rhode Island University, has taken the lead in laying out this shift. In an interview with CNBC this week, he said: "We have seen other categories (such as cryptocurrencies) taking up a disproportionate share. I think in a few years, sports will become a minority, similar to a decline in the proportion of active trading among large brokerages."

Robinhood自身的合约业务营收也实现了十倍增长，在2026年第二季度达到1.56亿美元。伯恩斯坦单独预测，随着加密货币类别在平台交易中占据更大份额，预测市场将成为Robinhood今年重要的收入来源。

监管不确定性仍存

伯恩斯坦指出，鉴于法院对于此类合约是属于联邦监管的衍生品还是州级监管的赌博存在相互矛盾的裁决，美国体育预测市场在2027或2028年之前不太可能获得明确的监管框架。

在这一问题得到解决之前，行业正朝着2026年交易量达到4100亿美元的目标迈进。对于伯恩斯坦而言，这不再是一个上限，而是一个底线。