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Bitcoin leaves Binance at its fastest daily growth rate in three years

2026-09-26 00:34:36
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比特币自2023年以来首次出现单日最大净流出,持仓站稳84,000美元上方

比特币在最新一轮反弹后价格维持在84,000美元以上,币安(Binance)交易所出现了自2023年以来最大的单日净资金流出量,超过13,800枚BTC被提走。

关键数据概览

• 币安录得超过13,800枚BTC的单日净流出,这是该交易所自2023年以来最高的此类读数。
• 随着BTC价格坚守84,000美元关口,该交易所的比特币储备在四天内减少了约20,000枚。
• 尽管提款行为直接减少了币安上立即可用的BTC数量,但净流量数据无法揭示持有者转移代币的具体原因。

分析师观点:结构性突破与FOMO情绪

CryptoQuant分析师Darkfrost于9月25日表示,近期币安的活动主要由提款主导。币安约占各类型投资者可访问的交易所中比特币总量的30%。他指出,比特币已进入一种不同于以往反弹的看涨动态。自7月高点以来,BTC的表现约为45%,且此次反弹 notably 突破了重要的结构点位。

七日平均净流量已降至负2,000枚BTC左右,而在最新的单日读数中,币安的净流出量超过13,800枚。分析师将其描述为该交易所三年来最大的单日净流出。数据显示,币安的比特币储备从约705,000枚下降至685,000枚,在此期间移除了约20,000枚BTC。CryptoQuant的图表显示,此次流出水平是2023年以来所未见的。记录数据时,比特币交易价格接近84,300美元,较7月水平上涨约45%。

突破阻力位与大户增持

比特币的最新走势使其穿越了此前限制其复苏的价格区域。Darkfrost指出,BTC已连续数日收于5月高点(约82,000美元)之上,他认为这是市场结构的重要变化。9月25日,比特币交易价格约为84,000美元,此前曾触及87,000美元区域。

这一走势发生在部分大型持有者积累筹码之后。据报道,持有100至1,000枚BTC的地址在7月15日至9月24日期间累计增持了113,950枚BTC,使其总持仓量达到约524万枚。此外,美国现货比特币交易所交易基金(ETF)在9月23日录得3.4698亿美元的净流入,这是连续第五个正流入交易日。

相比之下,ETF的需求情况与9月中旬有所不同。比特币基金在9月14日至9月18日当周仅录得610万美元的净流入,而此前最后一个交易日曾有4.33亿美元的流入;同期以太坊基金则损失了约1.406亿美元。

Flow direction reversal: The flow direction of

Binance from inflow to outflow is diametrically opposed to the situation at the beginning of the year. At the time, Darkfrost reported that the exchange's weekly average Bitcoin inflow had increased from 378 to 1,190 in less than 10 days, while reserves had increased by 16,000 in a month. At that time, the increase in Binance inflows accompanied Bitcoin under pressure as more tokens became available for circulation on exchanges, with the single-day inflow even exceeding 3,600 on May 18.

The latest data shows that the direction has reversed, with current withdrawals exceeding deposits.

The significance of large-scale outflows

Darkfrost believes that the dominant outflows indicate that some investors have chosen to keep Bitcoin themselves rather than leave it on the exchange. He linked this behavior to long-term holding and pointed out that a mechanical reduction in exchange balances reduces potential selling pressure.

However, Bitcoin transferred from an exchange does not necessarily mean that it is being hoarded. Transfers may involve private custody, inter-platform movements, institutional custody arrangements, or other wallet activities. Net exchange flow only shows the movement of funds and does not establish how the owner plans to use these assets.

Binance's own reserve data provides an example of rapid changes in balances. Data on August 1 showed that Binance users held approximately 657,000 BTC, an increase of 16,349 from the previous monthly snapshot. Users 'positions increased by 25,838 in May and increased by 7,715 in June. CryptoQuant's latest data measures different periods of time and shows that BTC is flowing out of Binance during the current rebound.

历史对比与市场展望

今年早些时候曾出现过类似的供应模式。截至5月7日,自2月以来,近100,000枚BTC离开了币安、OKX和Gemini的储备。其中币安占了约50,000枚的降幅,其储备从2月21日的近670,000枚下降至约620,000枚。主要交易所的储备下降减少了交易场所中 readily available(立即可用)的比特币数量,尽管当时鲸鱼向交易所的转账仍在继续。

对于当前的走势,Darkfrost的解释取决于提走的资金是否持续远离交易所。持续的负净流量将使币安上立即可用的BTC减少,而大额存款的回归将逆转近期交易所供应的下降。

45%反弹后的积累信号

最新提款的时机引人注目,因为比特币价格在上涨的同时,资金仍在离开币安。根据Darkfrost的说法,比特币自7月水平以来上涨了约45%,但积累似乎在整个反弹过程中持续进行。他认为,一些原本等待类似以往熊市下跌的投资者,可能会随着复苏的继续而进入市场。他将币安突然出现的提款描述为预期比特币进一步下跌的“后来者”可能的FOMO(错失恐惧症)行为。

事实上,2026年早些时候,比特币交易所供应量已达到异常低的水平。5月,主要交易所的总储备金降至约267万枚BTC,这一水平与2019年8月相当。当时BTC交易价格接近73,000美元,尽管短期动能疲软且持有者盈利状况一般,但较低的储备金本身并未确认价格底部。

此次最新数据出现在比特币交易价格显著更高的背景下。9月25日,BTC在从87,000美元区域回调后,价格接近84,000美元,阻力位近期形成于86,700美元附近。Darkfrost表示,如果比特币继续保持当前进程,特别是如果观望的投资者开始入场,类似的交易所提款事件可能会再次出现。

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