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BTC 比特币短暂突破摩根大通估算的8.5万美元生产成本线，但反弹能否持续仍存疑
在连续280天低于该阈值后，比特币价格曾短暂突破其平均生产成本。据摩根大通（JPMorgan）估算，这一成本约为8.5万美元。虽然突破该水平有望减少矿工的被迫抛售行为，但由于价格随后回落至约84,100美元附近，市场缓解压力的前景仍不明朗。
核心要点摘要
- 摩根大通将比特币的平均生产成本估算为8.5万美元。
- 在经历280天的低位运行后，BTC曾短暂突破此阈值。
- 若价格能稳定维持在8.5万美元以上，可能降低矿企的被迫抛售风险。
- 算力（Hashrate）和挖矿难度的下降有助于网络重新平衡供需。
- 利润空间压缩正促使部分矿工转向人工智能（AI）领域。
比特币生产成本升至8.5万美元
摩根大通目前估计，生产一枚比特币的平均成本接近8.5万美元。该行指出，约有20%的矿业公司处于亏损状态。这一成本估算主要涵盖了电力价格、设备效率、全网算力以及挖矿难度等因素。
Bitcoin prices hit this level for a while during the recent market rally, but then fell slightly. It is worth noting that in June, the banking institution estimated the production cost of bitcoin at only US$78,000, while the price of cryptocurrency at the time was approximately US$62,500.
The following key data reveals the tensions facing the industry:
- Bitcoin prices have been operating below estimated production costs for 280 days;
- A similar downturn in history was approximately 224 days in 2018;
- During the first quarter, nearly 15% to 20% of mining equipment failed to generate profits;
- Listed mining companies sold more than 32,000 BTC units in the first quarter of 2026;
- After breaking through US$85,000, the price fell back to approximately US$84,250.
It needs to be clear that production costs are an industry average. Operators with cheap electricity and up-to-date equipment can remain profitable even below this threshold; conversely, miners using old equipment could face losses even if the Bitcoin price exceeds $85,000.
Higher prices help reduce forced sell-offs
When bitcoin prices fall below production costs, mining companies must look for other sources of liquidity. They may need to tap into reserves, borrow money, raise capital, or sell more BTC to pay for electricity and maintenance costs.
在Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou的监督下，摩根大通的分析师指出：“如果这种新环境持续存在，应能减轻矿业专家的压力并降低被迫抛售的风险。”因此，突破8.5万美元这一阈值的持续时间比单纯的价格跨越更为重要。仅仅几小时的突破不足以恢复利润率或改变公司的投资决策。
数据显示，第一季度上市矿业公司为维持运营抛售了超过3.2万枚BTC。根据摩根大通提供的数据，这一数量超过了这些公司在整个2025年的累计销售量。
比特币网络适应利润率下降
竞争力较弱的矿业公司已将其机器迁移至电力更便宜的地区。其他公司则出售了旧设备、将部分设施置于待机状态，或回收了不再高效的型号。
这些退出行为减少了保障比特币安全所需的计算能力。摩根大通认为，自2025年10月达到峰值以来，全网算力已下降近19%。据报道，同期挖矿难度也下降了近15%。
这种机制使网络能够直接进行再平衡。随着部分机器停机，比特币会定期调整其难度参数。因此，仍在活跃运营的矿工在相同计算能力下验证区块的概率有所提高。
第一季度，CoinShares认为，当电价为每千瓦时6美分时，效率低于Antminer S19 XP的机器将无法产生利润。这种情况可能涉及全球机队中15%至20%的设备。
JPMorgan said production costs can serve as a "soft floor", but this does not guarantee an automatic rebound in prices. If miners reduce costs, stop machines, or accept temporary losses, Bitcoin could linger below that level for a long time.
Artificial intelligence diverts mining capacity
The compression of profit margins may also accelerate the transformation of some mining centers into artificial intelligence infrastructure. AI companies often offer more predictable contracts and can pay higher fees for quick access to power, cooling systems and data centers.
As a result, many listed mining groups have lowered their computing power growth targets. This strategic shift limits competition within the industry and may slow the rise in future production costs during a non-halving cycle.
This has also led to changes in the industry structure. According to JPMorgan Chase, listed companies are losing market share when facing private companies and sovereign operators, which are more hidden in official data.
To confirm that the market is improving, Bitcoin needs to remain stable above US$85,000. By then, the increase in computing power, difficulty and sales of mining companies will become key indicators to determine whether this threshold marks a true return to profitability.
