随着交易者变得更加谨慎，山寨币季节或将回归

“山寨币季节”可能仍是一个动态目标，但交易员关注的资金轮动趋势已难以被忽视

根据CoinMarketCap的数据，在过去30天里，涵盖迷因币、去中心化金融（DeFi）、隐私计算、人工智能以及基础设施等多个领域的代币均取得了显著涨幅。其中，迷因币发射平台代币PONP涨幅超过350%，Uniswap的UNI涨幅超过110%，Arbitrum的ARB上涨超过150%。此外，被归类为聚焦AI领域的NEAR协议代币涨幅约为180%。上周，隐私代币Zcash创下超过1,600美元的新纪录，其他表现强劲的代币还包括LIT（比特币Layer-2解决方案）和PUMP（迷因币发射平台）。CoinMarketCap的山寨币季节指数及更广泛的市场图表进一步印证了这一趋势。

核心要点

CoinMarketCap的“山寨币季节”指标尚未达到官方设定的阈值，但过去30天的市场表现更像是一次广泛的板块轮动，而非单一主题的短暂爆发。评论人士指出，尽管迷因币仍是本轮行情的一部分，但市场叙事正潜在地向“收入”和实用性方向转移。Talos的数据显示，资金正集中在少数资产上，而非均匀地分布在长尾资产中。自2024年底以来，做市商在山寨币交易中的参与度有所下降，这表明与之前的反弹相比，做市商在当前行情中的作用可能较小。零售投资者和专业交易者获取流动性和工具的便利性有所提升，这可能解释了为何在做市商驱动的流动性减少的情况下，买盘依然持续。

这是山寨币季节，还是仅仅是选择性轮动？

市场的行为并未完全符合所谓的“官方”山寨币季节定义。据该出版物称，CoinMarketCap的山寨币季节指数目前为64分（满分100分），较前一周的48分有所上升，但仍低于标志着新一个正式山寨币季节的75分门槛。这一差距对投资者而言至关重要，因为“山寨币季节”信号通常被用作衡量整个市场风险偏好的代名词。如果指数未确认出现全面的制度性转变，交易员更有可能寻找特定的叙事主题，而不是广泛地轮换进入大市值以外的所有资产。

This performance characteristic supports the above interpretation. While tokens are soaring in different areas-such as the privacy concept represented by Zcash, and DeFi and AI-related projects-the driving force behind them may be more selective participation than a sweeping shift in strategy.

What traders seem to be buying right now

Even among the coins that gained the most last week, the composition appears uneven. The data set cited shows that among the top 20 high-rise tokens last week, only two memes were on the list; in the previous week, only Puggy Penguins was selected. This background partly explains why many market observers believe that current market movements reflect "breadth before depth." Sergej Kunz, co-founder of 1inch, pointed out that the strongest growth among the buyer base in the past 30 days has been memin, but other categories-such as DeFi protocols, privacy tokens, AI projects and tokenized assets-are also attracting attention. However, his focus is on how investors can spread their exposure: more wallets are buying a wider range of tokens, often in smaller amounts, rather than placing all bets on a single bet.

Talos data is consistent with this view and further refines the picture. Sam Sen, head of international market regulation at Talos, said the data points to capital being concentrated in a small number of assets rather than being widely distributed among "long tail" assets. He also pointed out that September's flow direction data showed a "significant buying tendency," with buying dominated almost every trading day. This contrasts with the situation at the end of 2024, when buyers and sellers were evenly matched, and a variety of tokens, including DOGE, ADA and HBAR, achieved broader excess returns in the post-election rally.

The debate over relevance, revenue and narrative

Rather than viewing this rally as a simple rotation towards popular currencies, discussions are increasingly focusing on what these tokens have in common. Bankless podcast host David Hoffman suggested that significantly rising tokens such as ARB, UNI, JUP and ONDO have one thing in common: they "make money" and "generate revenue," which suggests a pragmaticity-driven impulse rather than pure speculation.

Having said that, many observers have emphasized that fundamentals are not the only driving force. Kunz's comments once again pointed to memein as the main growth engine for buyers, while Talos's Sen described the market as becoming more selective-centered around specific narratives and ecosystems rather than treating altcoins as a broad trading category.

结果是处于一种不稳定的中间状态：投资者可能并未完全放弃投机，但他们可能需要更清晰的参与理由。更广泛的市场启示是，本轮周期中的“山寨币季节”可能不再由单一主导主题驱动，而是由重叠的子故事组成——产生收入的协议、链上衍生品、隐私计算、AI关联领域、代币化资产，甚至是在主流平台上各类别之间日益增长的融合。

文章来源强调了代币化股票开始在Robinhood等非传统配对中与迷因币进行交易，说明了零售渠道如何压缩不同叙事之间的界限。据报道，其中一个引用的配对在9月初创造了超过4.25亿美元的24小时交易量，凸显了流动性围绕新组合形成的速度之快。

谁在为这笔资金买单：做市商、零售准入与专业工具

The most operational part of the report is its hints at market structure. Talos data cited by Sen showed that market makers 'participation in altcoin transactions has dropped from about 65% at the end of 2024 to about 32% in September, although capital flows have maintained a strong buying trend. Sen described this as a significant difference from the previous round of altcoin rebound, indicating that liquidity providers and market makers have a smaller role in the current market. At the same time, he believes access conditions have improved-exposure that previously required direct interaction with decentralized venues such as Raydium or Orca can now be obtained through mainstream platforms. In his view, this lowers entry barriers and expands retail engagement.

On a professional level, Sen also points out that traders have more tools to track activity-identifying the accumulation of funds in wallets, agreements and chains through wallet tracking and documentary trading strategies. Taken together, the report portrays the current rebound as driven by broader retail access and more sophistry of professional surveillance.

Potential "fundamental" advantages-if integration accelerates

一些最为乐观的评论来自Curve Finance和Yield Basis创始人Michael Egorov。他表示，与以往周期相比，他看到人们对具有切实用例和机构需求的协议兴趣更大，特别是那些能够将加密货币与现实金融活动连接的基础设施。稳定币被作为一个例子突出显示，特别是在链上外汇和金融科技应用中的使用。Egorov认为，一个关键驱动力可能是加密基础设施与现实经济之间日益增长的整合——如果这一趋势继续下去，可能会为本轮山寨币动能提供除了交易本身之外的额外买入来源。

但他也承认存在不确定性：这需要需求不断累积，而不仅仅是投机的关注。

对于读者而言，近期的问题不仅仅是“山寨币季节”是否在纸面上到来，而是市场是否继续围绕特定叙事集中，还是开始更广泛地轮动。请密切关注CoinMarketCap指数向官方阈值的移动，并监测Talos的流向和参与指标——特别是随着代币流动性加深，做市商的参与度是否会再次上升。