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比特币（BTC）突破8.4万美元关口，ETF势头强劲，收益率压力犹存

2026-09-29 21:29:35

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核心要点

债券收益率上升与国际紧张局势削弱市场信心，加密货币ETF投资活动虽有所放缓但积极趋势持续。比特币在周末触及约85,000美元的高点后，重新站稳于84,000美元关口之上。

债券收益率与国际紧张局势压制市场信心

周二早盘交易期间，比特币（BTC）维持在84,000美元上方，收复了部分近期跌幅。此前，该数字资产在周末交易中曾触及85,000美元，随后出现回调。根据Investing.com的数据，截至美东时间上午6:40，市值最大的加密货币上涨1.36%，报84,000美元。以太坊同样录得正向波动，引领主要数字代币温和上涨。

不断攀升的政府债券收益率以及华盛顿与德黑兰之间持续的外交紧张局势，使市场参与者保持警惕。金融市场仍在考量美联储进一步收紧货币政策的可能性。作为基准的美国10年期国债收益率在9月份达到了19年来的最高点。这是在美联储决定加息25个基点并给出严厉的前瞻性指引以应对持续通胀压力之后发生的。

本周原油估值也有所上升，因为美国与伊朗之间的外交谈判进展甚微。特朗普总统否认了周末有关他提议向伊朗提供制裁解除，以换取其保证霍尔木兹海峡通行自由及限制核计划的报道。

Rising borrowing costs often put downward pressure on speculative investments such as cryptocurrencies. This is because higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets relative to low-risk alternatives such as government securities.

In a positive signal from mature financial institutions, Citigroup announced the expansion of its blockchain-based asset services to Japan and the United Arab Emirates. Some analysts interpret this as evidence of deepening institutional adoption.

ETF investment activity slows, but positive trend continues

On Monday, total U.S. spot cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) inflows were US$64.8 million, down approximately 80% from last Friday's inflow of US$330.8 million.

According to SoValue data, as of September 28, the total net inflow of the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF yesterday was US$31.07 million, marking eight consecutive trading days of net inflow. Meanwhile, total net inflows to the Ethereum Spot ETF yesterday were US$17.1 million.

Bitcoin-focused ETFs dominated Monday's inflows, reaching $31.07 million. The Ethereum product followed closely with an inflow of $17.1 million; funds tracking Solana captured $12.7 million; and the XRP ETF received $3.96 million.

尽管增速放缓，但这四类资产类别均保持在正值区间，并保持了连续的流入序列。比特币ETF将连胜纪录延长至连续8个交易日，在此期间累计流入约30亿美元。以太坊ETF实现了连续第七个交易日的净正向流入，其中贝莱德（BlackRock）的iShares以太坊信托贡献了周一以太坊总流入中的1,540万美元。索朗纳ETF将连胜纪录推至七个交易日，Bitwise的BSOL产品吸引了大部分新增资本。XRP ETF录得了连续第五天的增长，Canary Capital的XRPC基金囊括了该类别的全部流入额。

Zcash成为例外。其美国ETF在周一录得810万美元的净流出，而前一周其资金流入量约为3,500万美元。

根据Coinglass的数据，比特币期货未平仓合约价值——即活跃衍生品合约的总值——已降至2024年的低点628,000 BTC。这低于8月初比特币交易价格在63,000美元左右时记录的763,000 BTC水平。

市场参与者正带着降低的杠杆头寸和低迷的散户参与度进入第四季度，这通常是比特币表现最为强劲的时期。

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