为何Zcash在9月反弹后价格持续下跌？

Zcash fell below the US$1500 support level and fell back towards the US$1400 region.

In the latest round of severe market correction, Zcash (ZEC) lost its US$1500 support level and prices fell back towards the US$1400 region. The previous strong September rally faced new selling pressure.

Currently, Zcash is trading at close to $1400. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 53.41, while its moving average is still significantly above that value, at around 65.60.

Cryptocurrency signal analyst firm Alpha Crypto Signal pointed out that the US$1,170 - 1,210 range is the next potential area where ZEC may have bullish confirmations. At the same time, the Gemini Exchange has migrated its Zcash infrastructure to an open source full-node Zakura written on Rust, a move designed to prepare for the NU7 upgrade planned for November with faster block generation speeds.

The Zcash Foundation tentatively sets the NU7 upgrade date for November 5, which will shorten the block interval time to 25 seconds.

Price Trend and Market Data

According to CoinGecko data, as of the time of study, ZEC's trading price was approximately US$1412, down 0.4% in 24 hours and 12% in 7 days. In the last 24 hours of trading, token prices have fluctuated between $1360 and $1488. Its market value is approximately US$24 billion and trading volume is approximately US$1.31 billion.

The correction came after ZEC broke above $1500 multiple times in September and hit a seven-day high near $1688. Despite the latest decline, CoinGecko data showed that the privacy token has risen by about 70% in the past 30 days, indicating that the current trend is still in the middle of a larger monthly upward trend.

Technical Analysis: Testing the key area of US$1400

On the daily chart, ZEC has slightly fallen below the mid-track Bollinger Band (located around US$1,410.33). The upper track is at approximately $1,772.26, and the lower track is close to $1,048.41. Trading below the mid-track suggests that short-term momentum has weakened after a September climb.

If it can recover the US$1410 mark, ZEC will return to the middle track of the Bollinger Band. The next major resistance level remains $1500, which previously served as support until sellers lowered it. Above this level, the $1,600 - 1,700 area was the main resistance area during the most recent rally.

At the same time, market momentum has cooled. The 14th Relative Strength Index (RSI) was around 53.41, a sharp drop from the overbought reading reached during the September rally. Its RSI moving average remains high at around 65.60. An RSI reading above 50 does not mean that ZEC is in oversold territory, but the indicator is actually neutral, indicating that buying power has weakened compared to the beginning of the month. As a result, the price behavior of $1,390 - 1,410 becomes the first technical area to pay attention to before lower support levels need to be focused on.

Analysts focus on support near $1200

加密货币分析师Alpha Crypto Signal撰文指出，如果回调持续，ZEC正接近一个可能形成多头头寸的区域。

该分析师确定1170-1210美元是关键的下行水平支撑区域，并表示任何多头头寸的建立都取决于ZEC达到该区间后的看涨价格确认。分析师将该区域描述为“潜在的多头兴趣区”，但并未声称价格必然会跌至该处或从此反弹。

#ZEC $ZEC在近期回调后正接近一个潜在的多头兴趣区。我正在密切关注1170–1210美元附近的下行水平支撑区以观察反应。如果$ZEC到达该区域并显示出看涨确认，我将寻找做多机会……

1170美元区域也曾在早期的ZEC市场结构中出现。在Zcash此前突破1300美元时，据报道流动性主要集中在1170美元下方，而ZEC在9月16日单日涨幅超过20%。

对于当前的局势，若失去1400美元，则近期的日内低点1360美元将成为下一个可见的价格参考点。更深层次的下跌至分析师提出的1170-1210美元区间，将代表从9月高点进行的更大规模的回撤。相反，若能稳定收复1500美元以上，价格将回到最新抛售潮中失去的水平。

9月牛市使ZEC远高于早期水平

随着美国首只上市现货Zcash ETF的推出，Zcash带着强劲 momentum 进入9月。在Grayscale将其长期运营的Zcash信托基金转换为纽约证券交易所Arca市场的ZCSH现货ETF后，ZEC在9月初突破了1000美元大关。

涨势持续至月中。据报道，ZEC在9月16日因单日涨幅20.46%而交易于1337美元附近，盘中高点约为1385美元。当时的技术阻力集中在1375美元和1500美元。

ZEC随后清除了这两个阻力位，并在反转前交易至1600美元以上。最近的衍生品数据显示，在退潮期间交易者削减了杠杆。9月28日的一份OKX永续合约快照显示，随着ZEC下跌，24小时内美元未平仓合约兴趣从1.9069亿美元降至1.6495亿美元。这些数据描述了该场所未平仓敞口的减少，但并未确立哪一方发起了抛售。

另一方面，链上活动显示，在一个大型钱包在回调期间将ZEC从中枢化交易所撤出。Onchain Lens报告称，该钱包在发帖前两小时从Binance撤出了2640枚ZEC，当时价值约372万美元。

鲸鱼两小时前又从Binance撤出了2.64K $ZEC（约372万美元）。过去一个月，该钱包已从Binance和Gate累计获取14.19K $ZEC（约2000万美元）。

根据追踪器数据，过去一个月内，同一钱包通过从Binance和Gate的提款累计获得了14,190枚ZEC，价值近2000万美元。仅交易所提款并不能确立持有者是否打算保留、转移或稍后出售这些代币。

与此同时，Tyler Winklevoss将当前对Zcash的兴趣与加密市场的早期阶段进行了比较。Gemini联合创始人写道，Zcash“感觉就像2019年的加密市场”，指的是围绕这一注重隐私的资产的新兴关注度。他的评论仅代表其对市场情绪的看法，并未提供ZEC的价格目标。