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比特币发出引人注目的信号：警报响起！

2026-09-30 15:14:12

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比特币价格逼近八个月新高，市场动能隐现疲态

近期，随着比特币价格的强劲上涨，其价格已接近八个月来的最高水平。这一走势引发了市场对于加密资产上涨趋势能否持续的广泛讨论。尽管作为市场主导者的比特币保持了良好的价格表现，但链上数据却显示出上涨动能正在逐渐减弱。

由CryptoQuant追踪的“牛评分”（Bull Score）指标已达到满分100分中的90分，这在一定程度上印证了市场的强势外观。然而，现货与期货市场中比特币需求的回落，使得短期前景充满了不确定性，需密切观察。

比特币“牛评分”升至90分

在亚洲交易时段，比特币价格上涨0.4%，突破83,300美元大关。在此前的上涨过程中，比特币曾触及约87,400美元的八个月高点。

链上分析公司CryptoQuant发布的“牛评分”指数目前已达到90分。该指数将链上和市场的多种指标整合为单一度量标准，在比特币价格突破365日移动平均线后出现了显著上升。CryptoQuant认为，这一突破是确认牛市态势的重要信号。

需求疲软引发对行情持续性的质疑

尽管价格表现强劲，但比特币需求的下滑仍给行情的持续性蒙上了阴影。根据CryptoQuant的数据，过去30天内，现货市场的需求减少了约17万枚比特币。期货市场的变化则更为引人注目：投机性期货交易需求在9月14日约为16.4万枚BTC，而截至9月29日已骤降至1.6万枚BTC。这意味着在短短15天内，相关需求下降了近90%。

CryptoQuant研究主管Julio Moreno对此评论道：“在没有新需求支撑的情况下，反弹行情很难持续。目前现货需求仍在收缩，且期货增长停滞，维持短期上涨变得愈发困难。”

山寨币转入交易所速度加快

随着比特币市场需求出现疲软迹象，山寨币投资者的动向也成为判断市场短期走向的关键指标。数据显示，仅在7天内，就有约7.6万枚山寨币被转入交易所。这一数字创下了自2025年10月以来的新高，且这些转账来自约5.1万个不同的地址。山寨币大量流入交易所，通常被视为投资者准备抛售或实现利润的信号。

与此同时，山寨币的价格走势依然保持积极。SOL和ZEC涨幅约为2%，在大盘币中表现突出；XRP小幅上涨约1%，接近1.50美元。以太坊（ETH）、BNB和TRX的涨幅则在1%以下。

Given slowing demand for bitcoin and increasing inflows of altcoins into exchanges, the market expects investors to pay close attention to whether selling pressure will intensify in the future.

Can Bitcoin's rally continue?

Bitcoin's "Ox Score" reached 90 points, indicating that the market remains strong from the overall trend. However, a drop in spot demand by 170,000 BTC units and a 90% plunge in futures trading demand sent a clear signal that the upward momentum may be fading in the short term.

In addition, investors entering the market recently hold an average of approximately 33% of unrealized gains, which has also prompted the market to be highly vigilant about potential profit-taking behavior. Upcoming U.S. inflation data and changes in interest rate expectations may also become key factors in determining Bitcoin's short-term trend. If demand strengthens again, the upward momentum is expected to be supported; conversely, if the current shrinking demand situation continues, the selling pressure on Bitcoin may increase further.

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