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BTC 特朗普红利面临资金障碍与国会审查
TLDR：若共和党在11月3日的选举中保住国会控制权，特朗普提议向每位成年公民发放5,000美元“红利”，但该计划需经国会批准且融资问题尚未解决。预计1.2万亿美元的支出超过了预期的年度关税收入，引发了对联邦借贷和通胀的担忧。
美国医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心（CMS）安排向2,080万名符合条件的 Medicare 受益人发放90美元的返利，大多数直接存款预计在10月8日左右到账。已发表的研究估计，最初的疫情纾困支票导致比特币价格上涨了0.6%，但并未预测未来支付的影响。
特朗普红利面临资金障碍与国会审查
唐纳德·特朗普于9月9日在达拉斯举行的共和党大会上首次宣布“特朗普红利”计划。他将该付款描述为分享经济成果，其条件是共和党控制众议院和参议院。以约2.45亿成年公民为基数，全国性的拨款成本约为1.23万亿美元。这一计算假设所有成年公民均有资格获得，且在任何收入限制减少受款人数之前。
President Trump and Vice President JD Vance noted that the plan would be funded through tariff revenue. However, private investment commitments do not automatically translate into federal income that can be used to pay for households. Erica York, an economist at the Tax Foundation, predicts that net revenue from the new tariffs will be US$125 billion in 2027. This only covers one-tenth of Trump's dividend, which means it will take almost a decade to meet cost requirements.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warns that tariff revenue is already showing up in deficit forecasts. The committee said the allocation could increase borrowing and inflation if there were no spending cuts or additional sources of revenue. Because Congress controls federal spending through appropriations bills, winning the election does not in itself authorize the issuance of proposed bailout checks. Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno said he plans to prepare legislation for review after the November 3 vote.
This election condition sparked vote-buying charges, although such criticism did not establish a criminal violation. Legal experts cited by PolitiFact believe that payments that benefit all Americans may be legally permissible. Officials have not yet released final eligibility rules or payment schedules for Trump's dividends. Previous proposals involving DOGE savings and $2,000 in tariff payments also failed to produce a nationwide check.
Medicare rebates advance, bitcoin stimulus debate heats up
The Medicare rebate comes from the Medicare Improvement Fund, which is authorized by Congress to hold $2 billion. CMS identified 20.8 million eligible beneficiaries, with a total payment of approximately US$1.87 billion. Most recipients should receive direct deposits around October 8, while paper checks will arrive in late October. Eligibility covers eligible original Medicare Part B participants living in the United States.
Medicare Advantage members are not eligible, nor are people who receive Medicaid premium assistance or pay income-related premium adjustments. The rebate is independent of the Trump dividend and does not require Republicans to win a majority in Congress.
Past bailout cheques provide evidence of households purchasing Bitcoin, although they cannot determine how recipients will invest future payments. A study in Management Science estimated that initial epidemic payments increased bitcoin-dollar transactions by 3.8%. Researchers estimate that these payments caused a 0.6% increase in the price of Bitcoin. The finding only related to the first round of payments and does not explain the overall increase in Bitcoin between 2020 and 2021.
The epidemic also saw near-zero interest rates and massive asset purchases by the Federal Reserve. These synchronized policies make it complicated to isolate the impact of cash payments from the broader liquidity landscape. If implemented, the Trump dividend could divert money towards digital assets, but the proportion of households investing is unclear. If tariff revenue is insufficient, borrowing costs and monetary policy may affect Bitcoin prices along with household investment.
Saturday's trading followed losses on leveraged positions in the crypto market. The amount cleared within 24 hours reached approximately US$434 million, including approximately US$322 million in long positions.
