迈克尔·塞勒的Strategy公司暗示将再次大手笔购入比特币

Michael Saylor reiterated that MicroStrategy may have increased its holdings in Bitcoin, but has not yet confirmed

On October 4, as the company released a new cumulative chart, Michael Saylor once again sparked speculation that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) may have purchased more Bitcoin. Previously, the company confirmed 847,666 Bitcoin positions.

Latest position data and trading details

According to MicroStrategy's latest Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings, the company purchased 1,665 bitcoins for $142.7 million between September 21 and September 27. The acquisition brought the company's average cost to US$85,681 per piece, increased its total holdings to 847,666 pieces, and a total acquisition cost of US$63.95 billion.

As of now, the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin held by Microstrategy is US$75,437 (including fees and expenses). At Bitcoin's current market price of approximately $85,250, the market value of its holdings is approximately $72.3 billion, which is higher than the company's reported acquisition costs of approximately $8.3 billion. However, this valuation changes in real time as Bitcoin prices fluctuate.

Seler's new developments suggest rather than confirm an increase in holdings

On Sunday, October 4th, Seler posted the words "More orange than ever" on social media and attached a micro-strategy Bitcoin purchase chart. However, this information does not disclose the purchase quantity, transaction date or price, so this information alone cannot confirm that a new Bitcoin acquisition has occurred.

This expression is similar to previous weekend signals. Previously, Siler had posted "Even more orange" content, and the company later disclosed the transaction of 1,665 bitcoins on September 28. Although the pattern is similar, there is no guarantee that the October 4 post will lead to new acquisition disclosures. As of Sunday, there were no new SEC documents showing additional Bitcoin purchases.

Financing channels and stock issuance limits

Microstrategy funded recent Bitcoin purchases by selling MSTR common shares. Documents show that the company sold 1,469,165 shares of MSTR stock between September 21 and September 27, with a net income of $246.2 million. Of this,$142.7 million was used to purchase Bitcoin and $103.5 million was used to repurchase STRC preferred shares.

In addition, an additional US$48.1 million came from existing cash for STRC repurchases, bringing the total preferred share repurchases during the week to US$151.7 million. As of September 27, MicroStrategy's U.S. dollar reserves were US$5.02 billion, with an additional approximately US$1 billion in independent U.S. dollar cash.

The document shows that as of September 27, MicroStrategy's MSTR mark-to-market offering plan still has US$18.84 billion available for future offerings and sales. The available limits of other related preferred shares are: STRC is US$17.51 billion, STRD is US$4.01 billion, STRK is US$2.1 billion, and STRF is US$1.62 billion. It should be noted that STRC, STRD, STRK and STRF are preferred shares rather than corporate bonds.

Market Indicators and Analyst Views

MicroStrategy's own market dashboard reported that its mNAV ratio was 1.18 times after the data update as of October 2. At that time, MSTR's share price was US$159.11, the company's Bitcoin holdings were 847,666, and preferred shares were approximately US$14.13 billion. The mNAV measure will fluctuate with changes in MSTR stock price, Bitcoin price and capital structure and should not be regarded as a confirmation signal for future Bitcoin purchases.

Spot ETF holdings increase

At the same time, US spot Bitcoin ETF holdings also continue to grow. CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha pointed out that since July 1, positions in the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF have increased from approximately 1.2 million bitcoins to approximately 1.288 million bitcoins on October 4, an increase of nearly 88,000 (7.3%). During the same period, the price of Bitcoin rose from approximately US$59,500 to approximately US$85,000, an increase of nearly 43%.

Taha said that the amount of bitcoin held by ETFs has increased as prices rise, but the data does not clearly state how much of this rebound is driven by ETF demand. Over the past three months, ETF holdings have grown more slowly than the increase in Bitcoin prices.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju takes a more optimistic view of the current cycle. He pointed out that the bear market for Bitcoin "ended this summer" and that the market is in the early stages of a new cycle. The expectation he mentioned that a possible rise of 3-5 times from cyclical lows is only a prediction and does not determine where Bitcoin will trade next.

Conclusion: Official confirmation is required

MicroStrategy has not disclosed whether it purchased any bitcoins after September 27. Although its latest regulatory filings show that a large amount of MSTR issuance capacity is still available, unused capacity does not prove that shares have been sold or the proceeds have been invested in Bitcoin.

Given the company's recent pattern, the next official disclosure will provide the clearest answer. MicroStrategy stated in a September 28 filing that its website dashboard serves as a Regulation FD disclosure channel for publishing Bitcoin purchases, positions, securities prices and other company information. Currently, the latest entry on the Microstrategy Bitcoin ledger is still published on September 28, covering information on 1,665 bitcoins purchased in the week ending September 27.