Bitcoin: Strategy expects third-quarter profit of $20.91 billion

Strategy expects digital asset revenue to reach $20.91 billion in the third quarter of 2026

According to its October 5 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Strategy expects digital asset revenue to be $20.91 billion in the third quarter of 2026. This gain is a book appreciation at the accounting level rather than actual realization: it reflects a revaluation of the 847,666 bitcoins held by the company. As of September 30, the value of these bitcoins was US$70.82 billion, while their initial purchase cost was US$63.95 billion. Although there was a loss of $8.32 billion in the second quarter, the cumulative balance for nine months was still negative about $1.86 billion, according to Cointerbune's calculations. Final results for the third quarter have not yet been announced.

Overview of core data

• Positions: As of September 30, 847,666 bitcoins were held at an average cost of US$75,437 (based on an SEC filing dated October 5).
• Balance sheet value: US$70.82 billion, US$6.87 billion higher than the purchase price (calculated by Cointerbune).
• Recent purchases: Purchased 334 bitcoins between October 1 and 4 at a cost of US$28.7 million, with an average unit price of US$85,839 (ibid.).

Why did Strategy show revenue of $20.91 billion in the third quarter?

This is because Strategy uses fair value to account for Bitcoin, which is priced at market prices. According to Strategy filings filed with the SEC, third-quarter digital assets earnings of $20.91 billion were the result of management estimates. This change is mainly related to the revaluation of Bitcoin reserves due to the increase in BTC prices.

According to the second quarter 10-Q filing and October 5 filing, the value of Bitcoin recorded on the balance sheet increased from US$49.67 billion on June 30 to US$70.82 billion on September 30. Based on these data calculations, despite the limited increase in the number of bitcoin holdings, Strategy's bitcoin reserves increased by approximately 42% during this period. This means that the gain comes from revaluation rather than cash inflows through the sale of Bitcoin.

How many bitcoins does Strategy hold as of September 30, 2026?

According to an SEC filing dated October 5, Strategy held 847,666 bitcoins as of September 30, 2026. Its cumulative total purchase cost is US$63.95 billion, and the average price per bitcoin is US$75,436.60. Its book value is US$70.82 billion.

According to the 10-Q document, as of June 30, the company held approximately 846,000 BTC units. Calculations based on this data indicate a net increase of approximately 1,700 bitcoins during the quarter.

Is Strategy really profitable on Bitcoin?

从账面上看，是的。根据10月5日的 SEC 文件，截至9月30日，其比特币在资产负债表上的估值为708.2亿美元，而此前支付的成本为639.5亿美元。基于此数据计算，这代表了68.7亿美元的增加。关键阈值在于平均成本75,436.60美元。9月30日比特币价格约为83,500美元，高出平均成本近11%。

这意味着储备再次高于其获取成本，而在6月30日时，其低于成本142.7亿美元。然而，自1月以来的累计会计损失并未完全消除。

来源：2026年第二季度10-Q文件及10月5日8-K文件。第三季度数据：管理层估算，未经审计。

Strategy 的扭亏为盈：2026年第二季度、第三季度及九个月总计

(图表来源：Cointribune 基于 SEC 文件制作)

为何209.1亿美元的收益未被兑现？

Because it measures changes in value, not sales behavior. Therefore, this figure does not represent a realized profit. This is based on changes in fair value accounting, estimated by management, and has not been audited by KPMG according to SEC filings. This means that it does not factor in Strategy's cash flow.

Based on our calculations, after adding this gain to the unrealized loss of US$22.77 billion in the first half, the nine-month balance is still negative at approximately US$1.86 billion .

In addition, according to the SEC filing, the gains are accompanied by deferred tax liabilities estimated at $1.88 billion that have not yet been paid. On the cash side, from September 28 to October 4, Strategy spent $176.3 million to repurchase STRC (its floating rate preferred shares).

"Our goal is to have STRC trade between $99 and $100 over the long term." -- Phong Le, CEO of Strategy, speech at the release of the second quarter earnings report on July 30, 2026

Will Strategy continue to buy Bitcoin after the end of the third quarter?

Yes, but on a limited scale. As of September 30, Strategy held 847,666 BTC. As of October 4, its holdings were 848,000, based on an SEC filing dated October 5.

The latest purchase threshold is US$28.7 million, which means that 334 BTC units were acquired at an average price of US$85,839 between October 1 and 4.

最终的第三季度数据将包含在财报发布中，根据财报日历，预计发布日期为10月29日。然而，Strategy 尚未确认这一日期。这意味着第四季度的结果将取决于比特币价格与9月30日水平（约83,500美元）之间的差距，我们将继续在我们的 Strategy 专题报告中跟踪这一动态。