Bitcoin shock of $90,000 is blocked, ETF buying slows to near break-even point: Bitfinex analysts

比特币冲击9万美元受阻，周度ETF资金流入骤降

据Bitfinex分析师指出，随着美国现货比特币ETF的资金流入从23.9亿美元大幅降至2.411亿美元，比特币向9万美元发起的攻势在87,722美元下方停滞不前。

核心观点摘要

• 截至10月2日当周，美国现货比特币ETF资金流入下降了约90%。
• 经过连续233天的亏损后，ETF投资者终于收回了估算的平均入场成本价。
• Bitfinex预计，若现货买盘依然疲软，比特币将在84,000至87,722美元区间震荡。
• 分析师警告，若持续在81,300美元下方交易且伴随ETF资金流出，将威胁市场复苏势头。

现货买盘乏力制约反弹空间

Bitfinex在10月5日的市场更新报告中表示，比特币的复苏需要新的现货购买动力，而ETF投资者在其平均入场价格附近的买入意愿明显减弱。该交易所分析师在接受采访时称，尽管他们维持看涨观点不变，但预计本周比特币将在84,000美元与其年度开盘价87,722美元之间波动。“我们的上行观点保持不变，但时机取决于资金流向，而非日历日期。”分析师表示。

Reports show that Bitcoin fell back to around $84,000 after hitting $87,197 on October 2, the third time in two weeks that it has encountered resistance below its annual opening price. The report pointed out that in the 24 hours before the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls data, open interest in futures increased by $2.1 billion. Then as prices fell, positions shrank by $1.5 billion. Analysts attributed the failure to advance to futures activity that lacked sufficient spot buying to support it.

In an assessment of spot demand for bitcoin on September 30, Bitfinex warned that while reducing leverage ratios could limit liquidation risks, it would not provide the purchasing power needed for another round of gains. Previous reports put the increase at about 42.5% at the end of the third quarter. As futures premiums narrowed, the unwinding of some positions was attributed to weakening returns from catching spot and futures spreads. Open interest on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) dropped by 16,075 bitcoins on September 28, when the September contract expired.

To break out of the current range and move upwards, Bitfinex's latest report requires multiple ETF trading days to attract at least US$340 million in inflows each, with the daily closing price standing above US$87,722. In this scenario, analysts view $90,000 as the next test target.

Investors return to break-even point causes buying to slow down

The report set weekly ETF inflows from September 28 to October 2 at US$241.1 million. Although they dropped sharply from the previous week, the fund as a whole still maintained net inflows. During this period, Bitfinex pointed out that the net outflow of US$148.7 million on September 30 ended the previous inflow trend of nine consecutive trading days, with a cumulative inflow of US$3.08 billion. Data showed that BlackRock's IBIT products attracted $450.2 million in funds throughout the week, while Fidelity's FBTC products lost $168 million.

In a September 27 report on September ETF buying, data from Farside Investors showed inflows of approximately US$2.39 billion between September 21 and 25. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT led the way, attracting approximately $1.16 billion, followed by Fidelity's FBTC ($701.6 million) and ARK21 Shares 'ARKB ($294.7 million). During the same period, Morgan Stanley's MSBT products received $203.3 million in inflows, its largest weekly draw since its launch in April.

Based on Checkonchain's flow-weighted estimates, the latest Bitfinex report puts the average bid price for ETF investors at US$84,320. The report pointed out that Bitcoin stayed below this level for 233 consecutive trading days before regaining this level until September 21.

对于分析师而言，投资者回归盈亏平衡点是买盘放缓的一个可能解释，而非证明买入力度将持续疲软的证据。在他们看来，一旦ETF持有者拥有更大的利润缓冲，买入速度往往会加快。“宏观环境既未助涨也未打压，任何上涨都必须由现货买盘来推动，而目前这种买盘尚未回归。”团队表示。

失守84,000美元将考验九月复苏成果

Bitfinex分析师在评论中指出，84,000美元是比特币最大的成本基础聚集区，也是75%供应处于盈利状态的价位。低于该支撑位，团队预计比特币将重新测试9月至81,300美元之间的九月突破区域。他们表示，若跌破82,600美元，将使ETF投资者再次陷入亏损，可能减缓资金流入并推迟下一轮上涨。

即使每日收盘价低于84,000美元，只要ETF资金流保持平稳或为正，且短期持有者继续以获利了结，分析师仍将维持复苏观点。他们的判断标准使用了短期持有者支出产出利润率（SOPR），读数高于1.0表明销售获利。

然而，若持续在81,300美元下方交易且伴随ETF资金流出，团队表示77,000美元区域及77,200美元的“真实市场均值”将重新成为下行参考点位。

在10月1日关于比特币十月支撑位的报告中，ViaBTC首席分析师Jeff Ko和Bitget Wallet研究主管Lacie Zhang分别将82,000美元确定为关键的下行防线。Zhang将主要下行清算区置于82,000至82,500美元之间，警告称失去该区域可能加速下跌至80,000美元。她的看涨情景要求比特币守住82,000美元并收复87,500美元，之后才有望向95,000美元移动。

高国债收益率令12月降息预期承压

尽管美国招聘数据疲软，但Bitfinex分析师表示，货币条件尚未给比特币提供强劲的上行理由。他们引用9月就业增长2.9万人作为减少10月美联储加息概率的依据，同时核心PCE通胀率为3%且消费者支出稳健，使得12月加息的可能性依然存在。

分析师还指出，五年期国债收益率超过5%，十年期收益率超过5.2%，两者均创下19年新高，限制了投资者参与风险资产的兴趣。团队表示，更大力度的国债回购、更大规模的干预措施或更多短期票据的发行，可能会降低投资者承担风险所需的回报率，或增加市场流动性。

就现有的国债计划而言，9月27日的报告称，10至20年期及20至30年期板块的最大流动性支持回购额已从每次20亿美元增加至至少40亿美元。据该报道，这些大规模操作始于9月9日，并计划持续至11月4日。

针对下一次通胀测试，Bitfinex分析师指向10月14日公布的数据，紧随其后的是美联储10月27日至28日的会议。他们表示，核心通胀放缓将削弱12月加息的理由，而核心通胀稳定或上升且支出稳健则会加强加息论点。