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BTC 比特币下跌1.8%：伊朗风险推高油价，市场关注关键支撑位
此次下跌延续了自10月7日开始的广泛回调趋势。当日，由于买方未能维持较高价格，比特币跌至约84,000美元附近。此前的加密市场回调导致杠杆多头头寸被清算，主要代币均受波及；而最新的走势则将比特币进一步推向低于其近期难以坚守的水平。
核心要点
- 比特币交易价格接近82,600美元，24小时内下跌1.8%。
- 在有关美国可能对伊朗采取打击选项的报道后，原油价格上涨。
- 0.236斐波那契回撤位与50日简单移动平均线（SMA）在80,500美元附近交汇。
- 76,090美元是下一个较低的斐波那契参考点位。
油价将通胀与国债收益率重新置于焦点
比特币的下跌发生在《大西洋月刊》报道白宫要求五角大楼制定针对伊朗的可能打击方案之后。该报道引用了政府官员的消息，但并未确认已批准军事行动。尽管如此，随着交易者重新评估该地区进一步动荡的前景，油价依然走高。
Brent crude traded at more than $101 a barrel on October 8, Reuters reported, extending an energy risk premium that persists due to the latest tensions in the Middle East. More expensive crude oil could keep inflation expectations high, prompting investors to demand higher returns on long-term government debt. This background has put pressure on financial markets: Reuters reported that in previous transactions, U.S. 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields hit 24-year highs as oil prices broke the $100 mark.
Bitcoin is also affected by its own spot flows, leverage and profit-taking. The new report adds another layer of caution by bringing oil prices, inflation expectations and government bond yields back into the same discussion framework. In previous conflicts, Bitcoin's response to Iran risks has shown how quickly oil price fluctuations shift traders 'attention away from cryptocurrency-specific needs to focus on borrowing costs and inflation.
Stronger support is below the current price
At 04:07 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), Bitcoin traded at approximately US$82,686 on Bitstamp, down approximately 0.71% from the day's opening price, while CoinMarketCap records showed a 1.8% decline in the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin is approaching the support level of US$80,500. In addition, Bitcoin is trading below the rising trend line, which follows its rebound from September lows. A daily close below this line will weaken the slope of the short-term recovery, but the more substantive chart test is at a lower level, where two different reference indicators overlap:
- Daily support cluster: US$80,400 -80,550
- US$80,430 marks the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level for Bitcoin to rise from approximately US$57,729 to US$87,440.
- The 50-day simple moving average is near US$80,550, putting both indicators in the same narrow region.
The retracement level reflects the extent to which Bitcoin has given up recent gains, while the 50-day moving average reflects its recent trading trends. Their overlap gives the interval greater weight than a single rising diagonal.
The daily close around this range will determine the next move
If prices hit the support cluster and close back above it, the correction will remain limited to recovery. However, momentum has cooled: the daily relative strength index (RSI) remains near 50, below its moving smooth line of about 62. This suggests that the upward momentum in September has waned, but has not reached the extreme level of oversold.
If the closing price continues to fall below this range, US$76,100 near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level will become the next lower reference point. This is a level of technology that needs to be monitored, rather than predicting that Bitcoin must reach that point. The 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages are at about $72,260 and $71,800 respectively, forming a deeper area with limited guidance on immediate response.
Oil prices, yields and Bitcoin support are tested together
Oil prices, Treasury yields and Bitcoin's response in supporting the cluster will now be closely linked in traders 'attention. A calm energy market would remove a source of stress. A sustained breakthrough below this range indicates that macro concerns have reached a market that is losing short-term momentum.
