Bitcoin price forecast: 140,844 BTC will expire on October 30, a key point for the current US$80,000

10月30日比特币期权到期分析：市场定位与关键价位

10月30日，Deribit期权交易所将有140,844份比特币合约到期。截至周六下午，比特币价格为82,977美元，名义价值高达116.9亿美元，其中三分之二为看涨押注。最大的行权价位于95,000美元，比当前水平高出约14%。从算术角度看，若到期价为78,000美元，对另一方（看跌方）更为有利。本月剩余时间的走势将在上述两个数值之间展开，而决定方向的关键水位是80,000美元。

期权到期并非价格变动的独立驱动因素

期权到期本身并不会直接推动比特币价格变动。然而，随着到期日的临近，它会改变对冲的成本以及期权卖方账面持有的合约数量。在未来三周内进行买卖或对冲操作的任何人，面对的是一个其头寸分布已在今天可见的市场。本文旨在解读这些公开合约的头寸分布，而非对其进行猜测。

Deribit数据详解：多头主导但结构分散

Deribit占据了全球比特币期权交易的大部分份额。根据其公开统计数据，该交易所报告每个到期日的未平仓合约数量。10月10日下午的数据显示，10月30日到期的合约共有140,844份，其中看涨期权（Calls）为95,165份，看跌期权（Puts）为45,680份。

• 看涨期权Gives holders the right to buy Bitcoin at a fixed price, increasing in value when the price rises.
• Put options are their counterparts and increase in value when the price falls.

The put/call ratio on that date was 0.48. This means that for every $1 of a short bet, there are about $2 of a long bet. In comparison, the weekly expiration of contracts on October 16 was only 15,037, and the monthly expiration of October 30 was 9.4 times that. Large institutions usually position themselves based on a monthly perspective rather than a weekly perspective, so October 30 has a greater impact on prices than any previous date.

Why is the largest "bullish wall" at $95,000, while the current price is only $82,977?

The distribution of exercise prices is more telling than the total. Of the 95,165 open call options, only three exercise prices accounted for 54,750:

• US$95,000:25,031 contracts, 14.5% above current price
• US$90,000:15,158 contracts, 8.5% above current price
• US$100,000:14,562 contracts, 20.5% above current price

When it comes to put options, the situation is different. The largest single position was the exercise price of $70,000 (3,212 contracts), followed by $80,000 (2,791 contracts) and $72,000 (2,531 contracts). This suggests that hedging positions are denser and lower, while bullish bets are concentrated in a narrow range well above current prices. There is a simple explanation for this model, not about confidence: imaginary call options cost less. Investors with large portfolios and don't want to miss out on upside opportunities tend to buy cheap $95,000 options rather than buying the full amount of Bitcoin. As a result, the height of the "bullish wall" measures potential funding reserves rather than the number of market participants actually expected to reach $95,000.

The maximum pain point (Max Pain) is located at US$78,000 and its meaning

Based on the same distribution, the point that minimizes the total amount of compensation paid to the option buyer can be calculated, i.e. the "maximum pain point." For October 30, the level is at $78,000, 6% below the current price. If Bitcoin expires at this price, most open contracts will be void and the seller will retain the royalties charged. It should be noted that the biggest pain point is an accounting figure based on today's positions, not a forecast or target price. This figure changes as new contracts are opened and assumes that the seller does not adjust its accounts. Research has shown that the theory of maximum pain points in stock options is not reliably linked to the actual expiration price. This figure provides weighting information indicating in which price range most contracts are concentrated.

What is more influential in practice is the seller's hedging behavior. The person selling options will take a reverse position in the spot market and continue to adjust. This adjustment intensifies when the price approaches the strike price with a large number of open interests. In the last few trading days before expiration, as long as prices stay within a contract-intensive range, this may inhibit price volatility; once prices leave that range, they may amplify volatility. The densest range is currently between $78,000 and $80,000, with 5,262 put contracts open.

Weekly maturity reversal ratio on October 16

The next maturity date is smaller, but the story is the opposite. There were 15,037 contracts open on October 16, including 9,025 put options and 6,012 call options. The put/call ratio is 1.50 instead of 0.48. The largest single position at that date was a put option of $80,000 (2,262 contracts). The same level ($80,000) appears as the largest hedge below the price on both dates. In the short term, investors are hedging against the risk of falling below $80,000; in a monthly perspective, they are betting on $95,000 and above. This is not a contradiction, but a regular division of insurance and speculation: no one wants to be unprotected for the next two weeks while the trend is still expected to move higher throughout the month.

Changes since October 9 forecast

On October 9, the column quoted Standard Chartered Bank's assessment, which reiterated its target price of US$100,000 before the end of the year, despite the outflow of US$729 million from the spot ETF in two days at that time. Since then, the price has rebounded to $82,977, or 1.58%, from $81,686 on Thursday. During this period, the $80,000 level was not tested. The new perspective comes from the futures market's view of this goal. The US$100,000 pointed out by Standard Chartered Bank is covered by 14,562 contracts expiring on October 30 in the options market, and the US$95,000 has 25,031 contracts. Analysts 'goals do not exist in isolation: In the futures market, more money is invested below the $100,000 integer mark than the mark itself. Comparing the bank's forecasts with the position distribution shows the same optimism, except that the goal is closer.

At the same time, the daily range of fluctuations remains narrow. Over the past 24 hours, prices have fluctuated between $82,229 and $82,987, with a range of only $758 (0.9%). The range for the past 30 days is US$75,590 to US$86,597; current prices are 1.07% above the monthly average of US$82,097 and 4.2% below the monthly high.

Funding rate 0.00595%: Perpetual contracts show no signs of greed

In addition to the options market, there is also a second futures market-Perpetual contracts. These contracts never expire and are aligned with spot prices through balanced payments (funding rates). When rates are high, bulls pay short positions, and the market shows a heavy top trend. On Deribit, the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts is 0.00595% every 8 hours, or 0.0179% per day, and approximately 6.5% annually. 这是一个不起眼的数值。在10倍杠杆下，仅持仓成本每天占本金的0.18%，直到到期日的20个交易日累计为3.6%，此时价格尚未发生任何移动。永续合约未平仓本金总额为8.292亿美元。

这一读数表明：期权端头寸乐观，但杠杆端并不如此。过热的资金费率将是清算潮的预警信号。年化6.5%意味着该信号缺失。

网络难度上升3.03%，恰逢10月16日

第三个角度来自链上数据。比特币网络每2,016个区块调整一次难度，以确保平均每十分钟挖出一个区块。根据mempool.space的数据，距离下一次调整还差920个区块，预计上调3.03%，时间约为10月16日，即周度到期日。网络算力约为每秒1.0 zettahash，当前难度为132.72万亿。难度上升意味着尽管近期价格下跌，矿工仍在增加产能而非关机。这对价格方向不是信号，但提供了背景：随着难度增加，比特币的生产成本上升，被迫出售比特币以支付电费的矿工往往倾向于卖出更多而非更少。

到期前如何检查你的头寸

For German investors, the type of instrument used to hold Bitcoin is not only about returns, but also about taxes. Coins held directly are subject to private disposal as stipulated in Article 23 of the Income Tax Law, and the familiar tax exemption rules for holding for one year apply. Options, futures and perpetual contracts are forward transactions and are regarded as investment income in accordance with Article 20 of the Income Tax Law. The one-year period does not apply, and income exceeding the savings tax exemption is subject to tax.

This has a practical consequence that is often ignored before the expiration date: Hedging your coin with put options will not cause the coin to lose its one-year tax exemption period, because hedging and holding are two separate transactions. Conversely, selling coins and paying them back later through a perpetual contract means that you have disposed of your holdings and the term starts from scratch. Which variant is more tax-beneficial depends on the purchase date, which you need to record yourself. Use tax tools with portfolio tracking to handle both scenarios before transactions.

Three points can be checked today without having to prejudge the direction:

1. Your entry date: If it exceeds twelve months, sales will be tax-free; selling before the period is about to expire is usually not a better option.
2. If you hold a leveraged position, pay attention to the cost of capital: 0.18% per day with 10 times leverage, and the cumulative amount will reach 3.6% by October 30.
3. Your trading platform: Perpetual contract providers report funding rates and clearing prices differently, and these differences can become expensive when things need to happen quickly.

编辑部的观点：看涨超额并非价格信号

我们对这些数据评估如下：0.48的看跌/看涨比率常被解读为信心，但这正是我们认为过于短视的地方。证据在于分布情况。95,165份看涨期权中有54,750份位于90,000美元及以上，即在今天的成本很低，仅在三周内波动超过8%时才具有价值的行权价。这样的头寸类似于廉价的彩票，是糟糕的情绪指标。

反驳将此读数转化为信心的论据包括：年化6.5%的资金费率显示没有过热的杠杆，且自10月9日以来价格回升1.58%而未测试80,000美元水平。一个不冲向最重要对冲区的市场并未陷入恐慌。因此，我们的解读是冷静的：头寸友好但薄弱，稳健的信息不在于方向，而在于80,000美元水平，两个到期日均在此处拥有最大对冲。我们由此不得出任何价格预测。

10月30日到期情景推演：跌破80,000美元则看涨阵营失去缓冲

你可以分三步处理当前局势：

1. 注意80,000美元水平。这是10月16日2,262份和10月30日2,791份看跌合约所在的位置，均是价格下方的最大对冲。如果价格跌破此位，看涨方将失去缓冲，卖方的对冲交易将从抑制波动转为放大波动。
2. 密切关注资金费率。If it increases significantly from the current 0.00595% every 8 hours, the risk of a wave of pre-maturity liquidations will increase.
3. Check your purchase date. Whether sales before October 30 are tax-free depends on this. A portfolio tracker with tax features can extract term information from your transactions.

(As of October 10, 2026. This article does not constitute investment advice. Price and fee structures are subject to change; please check terms with your provider before purchasing. Trading cryptocurrency assets, especially leveraged forward transactions, may result in a total loss of invested capital.)