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ETH Ethereum Price Analysis: Daily Chart Perspective
Ethereum is currently trading around US$2500 after a sharp correction from the US$2700 resistance zone. The latest price movements put pressure on key support areas. Although Ethereum is still above the 100th and 200th moving averages, weakening momentum and the recent rebound in exchange supply ratios suggest that traders should be wary of further volatility before assuming a broader recovery will continue.
Ethereum's daily chart shows that assets rebounded strongly from a low of nearly $1500 in June, and then rose rapidly, breaking through the $2000 region and entering the $2400 range. Since then, ETH has climbed to the $2700 resistance zone and has been consolidating here in the past few weeks until sellers regained control in early October.
The latest rejection signal from the $2700 supply area has pushed ETH back into the immediate support area of $2400. Buyers began to react after the recent sell-off, with yesterday's K-line penetrating support and rebounding, but the rebound remained moderate and a convincing bullish reversal pattern has not yet been established.
If this support holds, ETH may try to recover towards the main resistance area near $2700. Effectively breaking this level will improve the short-term structure and potentially reopen the path to $3000.
However, a decisive break below the US$2400 support zone on the daily line will weaken the structure of the recovery, as the upward channel that has driven price increases since the June low will also break downwards. In this case, the next significant support area is between $2,000 and $2,200, where the 100-day and 200-day moving averages have recently formed a golden cross.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also dropped to around 40, indicating weakening momentum and a shift towards bearish territory. Although the indicator is approaching oversold levels, it has not yet reached the traditional threshold of below 30. If it can rise above 50, it will provide a stronger signal for buyers to regain control of the situation; and if it continues to weaken below 40, it will make it easy for ETH to test support again.
ETH/USDT 4-hour chart analysis
The 4-hour chart more clearly shows the recent selling pressure. Ethereum consolidated between $2600 and $2800 for most of late September before falling sharply earlier this week. As ETH fell below the $2600 low, the decline accelerated, eventually pushing prices into the $2400 region.
The latest K-line shows a moderate rebound towards $2500 after a sharp decline. This suggests buyers are stepping in near support, but the rebound is still limited and not enough to confirm that the adjustment is over.
即时阻力区位于2600美元至2700美元之间，ETH必须克服下跌过程中形成的看跌失衡才能攀升。在下行方面，2400美元支撑区是首先要监测的水平。ETH已对该区域做出积极反应，但若再次跌破，可能会将价格推低，若此情景发生，市场潜在地会测试更广泛的2200美元支撑区。
与此同时，4小时RSI已从深度超卖读数恢复至约40。这一反弹表明卖压可能正在缓解，但动能仍然相对较弱，且处于中性水平50之下。该指标需要与价格同步走强，以支持更具说服力的复苏。
链上数据分析
交易所供应比率衡量的是中心化交易所持有的以太坊流通供应量相对于该指标追踪的更广泛供应量的比例。它有助于说明交易所可用ETH数量的变化，尽管它本身并不能独立确定持有者是否有意出售。
图表显示，2026年大部分时间里交易所供应比率持续下降。该指标从年初的约0.142降至9月的0.124。在同一时期，ETH的价格从其夏季低点恢复，并攀升至2700美元附近。
这种行为值得注意。比率的下降表明，相对于该指标所代表的总供应量，交易所持有的供应量总体变小。交易所可用性的减少可能与积累或转入自我托管相一致，从而降低立即可用于现货销售的ETH数量。然而，仅凭图表无法确定这些运动背后的原因。
然而，最近交易所供应比率从其低点反弹。与年初看到的下降相比，这一增加相对温和，但需要与ETH最新的价格修正一起监控。
如果该比率在ETH挣扎于2700美元下方时继续上升，可能表明更大比例的供应量正返回交易所，从而增加可用的卖出流动性。如果这种情况伴随着持续的价格疲软和更强的交易所流入，这种解释将更加令人担忧，可能会压倒需求，并在未来几周内将价格推得更低。
