Is the Bitcoin bear market over? What does the 53% decline reveal?

比特币市场格局重塑：熊市幅度收窄与长期趋势分析

比特币从2025年10月创下的124,824美元高点，跌至2026年6月的58,525美元，累计跌幅约为53%。相比之下，此前三轮牛市周期中的最大回撤幅度介于76.7%至84.5%之间。BloFin Research将这一显著差异视为比特币市场结构发生根本性变化、可能已进入新阶段的强烈信号。然而，6月份的低点尚未最终确立，市场仍面临不确定性。

为何本轮下跌幅度小于历史同期？

BloFin Research基于每日收盘价进行的计算显示，本轮周期的下跌幅度相较于过往周期更为温和。如果比特币在6月份触及的58,525美元确认为本轮周期的底部，那么这将是历史上跌幅最小的一个熊市周期。

周期阶段从峰值到谷值的跌幅2013–201584.5%2017–201883.8%2021–202276.7%2025–202653.0% 与此同时，上涨周期的回报率也在收缩。BloFin的周期分析指出，比特币从谷底反弹至峰值的倍数在第一轮周期中约为530倍，而在最近一轮周期中已降至8倍。无论是上涨还是下跌幅度的收窄，都暗示比特币正在逐渐失去过去那种剧烈的价格波动特征。

However, a smaller decline in itself does not alone prove that the market has matured permanently. If June support breaks below, the view that this bear market is milder than in the past will also weaken.

Has Bitcoin entered a bull market?

BloFin Research focuses on two key indicators that support long-term trend recovery:

1. 50-week moving average

Bitcoin regained its 50-week moving average of approximately US$78,800 in September. It then broke through the $86,000 mark in early October, and as of October 11, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $83,000. The 50-week moving average is an important tool for tracking long-term price trends. As long as prices remain above this moving average, it provides support for bullish scenarios; if prices continue to fall below this moving average, the technical trend may weaken.

2. MVRV Ratio

MVRV (Market Capitalization to Realized Value Ratio) measures the relationship between the total market value and the actual value along the chain. On October 11, the ratio rose to about 1.54, while its 365-day moving average was 1.44. These two data together point to the continuing trend of Bitcoin's long-term recovery. However, it should be noted that moving averages and MVRV do not guarantee the future price direction, and even if indicators remain optimistic, Bitcoin may still encounter a new wave of selling.

What are the positions of institutional investors?

BloFin Research pointed out that the increase in long-term holders may be one of the key factors changing the market cycle. As of September 2026, the number of bitcoins that have not been traded for more than 155 days has reached 16.64 million, accounting for approximately 83% of the circulation supply.

In addition, as of October 2, the U.S. spot bitcoin ETF holdings were approximately 1.3 million BTC, and the bitcoin holdings of publicly listed companies were 1.29 million BTC. Together, these two groups control approximately 13% of the circulation supply. This ownership structure suggests that Bitcoin has a larger long-term investor base.

Despite this, the existence of long-term holders does not eliminate selling pressure in the market. The outflow of US$679 million in spot Bitcoin ETF funds last week is strong evidence: despite institutions hoarding large amounts of BTC, the withdrawal of funds during periods of market stress suggests that demand may still be weak.

Is the four-year cycle law failing?

Bitcoin's four-year cycle still has obvious temporal characteristics. BTC peaked in October 2025, about 18 months after the halving in April 2024, which is consistent with the peak interval of previous cycles.

The main changes are reflected in the magnitude and duration of the decline. If the June lows are maintained, this bear market will last about eight months; previous downturns typically last 12 to 13 months. These data do not suggest that the four-year cycle has disappeared completely, but rather suggest that its impact may diminish over time. A larger institutional investor base and an increased proportion of long-term holders support the theory that price fluctuations will no longer be as dramatic as in the past. However, data from a few cycles alone is not enough to fully predict future price movements.

Bull market prospects and key support levels

Whether Bitcoin can remain above the 50-week moving average is one of the core conditions for judging a long-term bullish scenario. If the price effectively falls below this moving average, the technical signal will tend to weaken.

US$58,525 is another key test level. If Bitcoin falls below this level, it means that the June low is not the lowest point of the current cycle, and previous pessimistic expectations will be confirmed.

To sum up, the view that "Bitcoin has experienced a mild bear market" currently relies on two prerequisites: the stability of the June low and the effectiveness of long-term bullish indicators. If ETF outflows accelerate and prices lose these supports, the argument that "this bear market is shorter and lighter than history" will have to be reassessed.