Analysts warn that if the US CPI data remains strong, Bitcoin could face further impacts due to leve

Analysts warn that Bitcoin remains vulnerable to inflation-driven sell-offs. The market has not yet fully reduced its leverage levels.

Analysts also cautioned that after a wave of cryptocurrency liquidations worth $811 million, the total number of open positions remained relatively stable at around $140.9 billion. However, Bitcoin still faces further sell-off pressures due to inflation. Bitget Research noted in its assessment before the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that this data highlights potential vulnerabilities in the market.

The high number of open positions indicates that leverage risks remain present.

According to Bitget Research’s report, after the liquidation wave, the total amount of open positions in the crypto market remained at a high level of $140.9 billion. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, stated in an interview with crypto.news that the recent forced liquidations may have removed some vulnerable Bitcoin positions, but they haven’t completely eliminated any leverage exposures that could lead to further declines.

Lee said, “The latest liquidation wave has indeed reduced Bitcoin’s leverage, but it may not have fully reset the market’s position. For me, the high number of open positions before the release of the Consumer Price Index indicates that there is still significant leverage exposure. I warn that if inflation data changes unexpectedly, traders may re-evaluate bond yields and Federal Reserve policies, which could lead to another round of market adjustments.”

报告引用CoinGlass数据显示，截至周二上午的24小时内，加密货币市场发生了8.11亿美元的清算，其中多头头寸承担了大部分损失。随后的24小时内，清算总额降至1.4亿美元，但未平仓合约仍保持在1409亿美元。Lee将10年期美债收益率置于5.20%附近，他指出，高于预期的通胀数据可能是触发新一轮清算的可能诱因。他的警告基于数据结果以及市场中仍存在的杠杆规模。

另一方面，Lee认为，早期的清算浪潮可能清除了那些最容易受价格下跌影响的头寸，从而潜在地限制了后续的抛售压力。相反，如果通胀数据温和，当交易者重建风险敞口且空头头寸面临压力时，比特币可能会出现强劲反弹。因此，他的评估表明，强制平仓可能在任何方向上加速价格的波动。

核心通胀或挑战美联储暂停加息的预期

Bitget Wallet的研究主管Lacie Zhang警告称，顽固的核心通胀可能给美联储的政策预期带来挑战。她指出，如果能源溢出效应、关税或持续的需求使物价压力居高不下，投资者可能低估了这一风险。

在发布前的评估中，Zhang将美联储在10月维持利率不变的概率设定为接近77%。她警告称，如果核心通胀读数偏高，或者国债收益率再次承压，可能会导致比市场目前预期的更剧烈的重新定价。尽管投资者普遍预计今年晚些时候还将有一次加息，但持续的通胀可能会使美联储采取“更高更久”的利率路径，超出这一假设范围。

Zhang的预测范围显示，整体CPI环比约为0.5%–0.6%，同比约为3.6%–3.7%。对于核心通胀，她引用的预期值为每月约0.2%，每年约2.4%–2.5%。她还援引了排除汽车和汽油后的零售销售额环比上升0.28%、同比上升4.05%的数据，并提及纽约联邦储备银行行长John Williams的表态，即2027年可能无需进一步加息。

现货ETF资金流入回暖，但链上需求尚未同步

对于通过现货ETF持有比特币的美国投资者，Bitfinex分析师此前已将通胀读数与12月的政策前景联系起来。他们在10月6日关于比特币ETF购买放缓的报告中指出，温和的核心通胀将削弱再次加息的理由，而坚挺的消费支出和持续的核心通胀则会加强这一理由。

Nansen's senior research analyst, Nicolai Sondergaard, described a resurgence in demand for Bitcoin ETFs. However, this resurgence has not yet received definitive support from blockchain-based trading data. Sondergaard noted that after a net outflow of $678.9 million from Bitcoin ETFs between October 5th and 9th, and another outflow of $65.4 million on October 12th, Bitcoin ETFs attracted $175.7 million in inflows on October 13th. Previous sell-offs involved large-scale withdrawals from US-listed funds. A report dated October 8th, citing data from Farside Investors, indicated that there were $494.9 million in redemptions related to Bitcoin ETFs on October 7th. Among these, BlackRock’s IBIT saw a decrease of $207.7 million, Fidelity’s FBTC saw a decrease of $105.1 million, and ARK 21Shares recorded a redemption of $101.7 million. In Nansen’s latest “Smart Traders” dataset, Sondergaard reported that Solana received approximately $555,000 in inflows within 24 hours, while Ethereum received $22,000 in inflows. However, over the course of a week, both assets experienced net outflows. Regarding wallets related to Bitcoin, he observed mixed flows of funds, with no clear signs of widespread accumulation. “The demand for ETFs is recovering faster than confidence in the blockchain.” Sondergaard characterized the current activity as “selective positioning,” rather than an expression of overall market confidence. He estimated the annual consensus inflation rate at 3.6%, and the core CPI at 2.5%. Bears need to break through the $84,500 level to establish their dominance.

In Zhang's market assessment of the Bitcoin CPI, the trading price of Bitcoin is currently ranging between $83,400 and $83,500. The initial support level is around $81,000 to $82,000. Another potential downward target is near the recent low of $80,400. Above this range, Zhang believes that the resistance levels would be at $84,000 to $84,500, followed by $85,000 to $87,000. She also notes that if Bitcoin can maintain its position above $84,500 to $85,000 with strong trading volume support, then bulls could regain control over the market. This would require further inflows of capital to sustain this situation.

In this optimistic scenario, Zhang expects core inflation to remain at 0.2% or lower, and expectations for further interest rate hikes to decrease. In addition to inflation data, she also considers the Federal Reserve's expectations for December, ETF flows, and continued institutional accumulation as key indicators of market trends.

Previously, Jeff Mei, CEO of BTSE, also proposed a similar two-sided scenario when analyzing the Bitcoin CPI price trend on October 12th. He suggested that unexpectedly strong inflation could push Bitcoin down below $80,000, while more moderate data could support prices returning to around $86,000 or higher.