Ethereum faces a critical daily test: two major results deserve attention

Key Points

The 100-day EMA is the most immediate test at the moment. $1985 remains the next significant resistance level. ETF flows improved after recent weakness. Short-term trading demand remains uneven.

As of August 8, when writing, ETH was trading at approximately US$1920, slightly above the 100-day moving average (approximately US$1906). The U.S. spot Ethereum ETF attracted approximately $245 million in net inflows over the past week, while CoinGlass data showed inconsistent signals for short-term spot and futures activity.

Ethereum is testing a two-week resistance breakthrough

Since the end of July, the 100-day moving average has suppressed Ethereum many times, so today's close is crucial to judging whether this rally can continue.

This resistance was formed when ETH was rejected on July 27 after it approached the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (approximately US$1985). Prices then fell back below the moving average and remained largely below that level until they rebounded this week. Yesterday's market finally pushed ETH to break through the average, and prices remained above the average as of writing.

The moving average is currently around $1905, which is very close to current prices, so it is not uncommon to break the intraday moving average. The daily closing price is more instructive because it will show whether buyers can maintain the breakthrough after multiple failed attempts to recover the level.

With this rise, momentum has also improved. The daily RSI is around 57, which is above the neutral 50 level, but has not yet entered the traditional overbought area.

The US$1985 region has rejected ETH twice

Even if it holds its 100-day moving average, Ethereum still faces a more difficult resistance area. 0.5 The Fibonacci retracement level is near $1985, almost exactly coinciding with the position where the rally stalled on July 27. The area also overlapped with the price range before Ethereum accelerated in early June, with ETH eventually falling to around $1500. As a result, buyers are approaching a chart area that has played a key role in both the recent rally and previous sell-offs.

If it breaks through US$1985 decisively, the downward 200-day moving average (about US$2050) will become the next target. Prior to this, Ethereum's short-term structure improved, but the greater resistance left by previous declines has not yet been cleared.

ETF flows recover from periods of weakness

According to SoValue data, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately US$245 million in the past week. The rebound is noteworthy after a period of weak fund performance, but a week of strong performance alone is not enough to establish a lasting return to institutional demand.

The Ethereum ETF has its latest rebound after a difficult summer, during which outflows repeatedly dragged down overall capital flows. Therefore, the current $245 million makes more sense as an improvement after recent weakness than as a confirmation of a new long-term trend. This also coincides with ETH's attempt to regain an important technical position. But this does not mean that ETF buying drove the market to break through the 100-day moving average, as Ethereum is traded in spot, derivatives and other markets around the world.

For the current landscape, continued capital inflows are more important than the positive size of a single week, especially when ETH again hits resistance at $1985.

Trading capital flows have not yet been confirmed.

CoinGlass data provides a more cautious signal than price charts. Net spot flow has been approximately US$24.36 million in the past 24 hours and approximately US$79.91 million in the past three days, meaning that aggressive selling exceeded aggressive buying in both time periods.

Futures are less clear. Three-day net flow remains positive at about $407 million, compared with the latest 24-hour reading of about-135 million. This combination does not show continued buying pressure in both markets as ETH attempts to hold on to its 100-day moving average. Spot activity remains biased towards aggressive selling, while futures positions are more volatile.

CoinGlass net flow measures the difference between aggressive market makers buying and aggressive market makers selling. Positive futures flow does not necessarily mean that traders have opened new long positions, as short covering can also generate aggressive buying.

Futures flow

4 hours: inflow of US$242.51 million, outflow of US$277.74 million, net outflow of US$35.23 million, net rate of change-144.44%, net flow to market value of-0.015%.

8 hours: inflow of US$422.78 million, outflow of US$374.03 million, net inflow of US$48.75 million, net rate of change of +139.43%, net flow to market value of 0.021%.

12 hours: Inflow of US$765.29 million, outflow of US$705.45 million, net inflow of US$59.84 million, net rate of change +130.76%, net flow accounted for 0.026% of market value.

24 hours: Inflow of US$3.66 billion, outflow of US$3.80 billion, net outflow of US$134.72 million, net rate of change-124.54%, and net flow to market value-0.058%.

3 days: inflow of US$14.04 billion, outflow of US$13.64 billion, net inflow of US$407.47 million, net rate of change-25.41%, net flow to market value of 0.18%.

Spot flow

8 hours: inflow of US$26.01 million, outflow of US$26.65 million, net outflow of US$649.21 million, net rate of change-189.00%, and net flow to market value-0.00028%.

12 hours: Inflow of US$49.32 million, outflow of US$51.55 million, net outflow of US$2.24 million, net rate of change of +89.89%, and net flow to market value of-0.00097%.

24 hours: Inflows of US$219.05 million, outflows of US$243.41 million, net outflow of US$24.36 million, net rate of change of-34.67%, and net flow to market value of-0.011%.

3 days: inflow of US$808.7 million, outflow of US$888.62 million, net outflow of US$79.91 million, net rate of change-830.63%, and net flow to market value-0.035%.

Price comes first, capital flow has not yet fully followed up

Ethereum's technical improvement has exceeded the follow-up speed supported by capital flow. ETH is currently temporarily standing at the 100-day moving average, the RSI has rebounded above the neutral level, and the flow of ETF funds has rebounded after a weak period. But the CoinGlass data was not convincing, with spot flows negative in both the 24-hour and three-day cycles, and futures did not give the same clear signal.

This does not negate price movements, but rather suggests that stronger buying has not persisted in the markets examined in this article. Today's daily close will provide the first confirmation point. If the closing price is above the 100-day moving average, ETH will be in a more favorable position, once again challenging the $1985 resistance level. If the close falls below the moving average, the two-week resistance issue remains unresolved and will bring the nearby 0.382 Fibonacci area (approximately US$1,865 - 1,870) back into focus.

Disclaimer : This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is volatile and technical bits may fail without warning.