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Following
ETH Ethereum has been hovering near the same pivot point for a month.
As the daily chart shows, Ethereum traded around $1870 on August 15. 0.382 The Fibonacci retracement line crosses the same area, while the 100-day simple moving average is at $1875, a gap of less than $5.
The Ethereum daily price chart shows prices hovering around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement line.
This is the area that Ethereum regained in mid-July. At the time, our previous Ethereum price analysis pointed out that $1872 was a key level that could confirm a breakthrough or pull prices back into previous ranges. A month later, Ethereum traveled through this location many times, but failed to form a trend.
Most daily closing prices remain between approximately $1830 and $1950. This makes the Fibonacci level the center of consolidation rather than a clear support level. The next useful signal is more likely to come from the boundary of the interval rather than crossing the midpoint again.
Glassnode data shows fatigue rather than confirmation bottom
Glassnode's seller fatigue constant has dropped to approximately 0.0055, close to the bottom of the range visible since 2022.
Glassnode charts track Ethereum prices and seller fatigue constants.
Glassnode calculates this indicator by multiplying the profit percentage of ETH supply by the 30-day price volatility. Such low readings reflect shrinking volatility and reduced supply of earnings, conditions that may reduce marginal holders 'willingness or ability to continue selling.
However, this indicator does not count active sellers and cannot confirm a bottom. Ethereum has stopped extending its June decline, but attempts to rebound continue to be blocked between $1900 and $1950. The reading helps explain why the market is stabilizing, but does not show buyers are strong enough to end the consolidation.
The five-week ETF capital inflow trend ended
The capital flow made up for the lack on the demand side. According to data, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF recorded a net outflow of US$2.26 million in the week ended August 14. This ended five consecutive weeks of positive inflows, during which the funds had attracted approximately $566 million.
The latest outflow only accounted for approximately 0.4% of cumulative inflows during the period, so a week's net outflow was not enough to establish a trend of institutional withdrawal. But it does suggest that the steady ETF buying that existed for most of the July rally did not strengthen as Ethereum approached the top edge of the range.
Taken together, Glassnode and ETF data partially explain why Ethereum continues to return to $1870. Selling pressure has eased, but fund demand has not accelerated enough to push prices out of range. New ETF inflows could support another test of $1950, while continued outflows would make breakthroughs dependent on buyers elsewhere in the spot market.
Breakthroughs have two clear boundaries
A daily close above $1950 would break its recent rebound high and suggest that demand has finally broken its month-long balance. The next test will be at $1990 near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement line and $2020 near the 200-day moving average. Together, the two form a stronger resistance band than local highs.
On the downside, the rising 50-day moving average of about $1830 marks the bottom edge of the current structure. Losing this moving average and failing to rebound quickly will convey more information than briefly falling below the midpoint again. This would expose $1730 near the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement line and weaken the rally since the late June low.
Two possible breakthroughs will send different signals. An upward break through the range requires buyers to overcome remaining supply, while a downward break may occur without aggressive selling, as long as buying near the support level weakens.
Technical indicators, on-chain indicators and ETF traffic data describe current market conditions but do not guarantee future price movements. This article is for information reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
