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FollowingGalaxy Research lowers the probability of passing the CLARITY bill to 10%
Galaxy Research has lowered its forecast for the probability of passing the CLARITY bill in 2026 to 10%. The agency pointed to unresolved differences within the Senate, limited time after recess and deadlock in negotiations as the main reasons. At the same time, with the market structure bill still pending in Washington, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are each advancing regulatory measures.
Senate postponed vote, future of CLARITY bill unclear
According to Galaxy Research, Senate Majority Leader John Thune did not call a vote on CLARITY bill before the August 7 recess. He later said the first vote would be scheduled when lawmakers resume in mid-September. However, Galaxy pointed out that the September session will only last about two to three weeks-the Senate will resume on September 14 and is scheduled to recess on October 2. Galaxy also pointed to several points of disagreement that have slowed down the negotiation process, including ethics for government officials, pressure from community banks, and changes to developer protection terms. A bipartisan Senate group submitted an ethics proposal to the White House on July 30, but Galaxy said the White House has not responded publicly.
SEC considers exemption for cryptocurrencies as bill is stalled
According to Galaxy Research, the SEC had previously planned to introduce two regulatory exemptions. One rule called "Reg Crypto" will provide a path for public crypto asset issuance; another "innovation exemption" will allow secondary trading of tokenized securities through decentralized finance. However, the agency postponed both measures after previously announcing plans. Galaxy said the SEC may now continue to advance these measures as negotiations on the CLARITY bill remain unresolved. The agency also noted that Commissioner Hester Pierce plans to leave the SEC in November. At the same time, the CFTC has taken action to defend its jurisdiction over forecast market contracts. This week, the agency issued an emergency order to counter New York Attorney General Letitia James 'actions against Kalshi.
Agencies take the lead as Congress promotes the CLARITY bill
Galaxy said that actions by regulators can temporarily provide regulatory coverage while Congress considers legislation. However, administrative measures lack the durability of laws passed by Congress. The agency expects the SEC to issue Reg Crypto, Innovation Waivers, or both within weeks or months. Alex Thorne, head of Galaxy Research, wrote the report. The CLARITY bill is still scheduled to be considered by the Senate after the August recess.
