Ethereum price breakthrough faces correction risk, with RSI reaching 86

Ethereum prices rose to US$2397, boosted by ETF inflows and short liquidations.

On August 21, Ethereum prices climbed 3% to about US$2397, after hitting intraday highs near US$2448, continuing a breakthrough driven by ETF inflows, short liquidations and increased risk appetite.

Summary

Ethereum prices hit US$2448 after rising more than 20% in the past week. The U.S. spot Ethereum ETF attracted a net inflow of US$189 million on August 19, the largest one-day inflow since October. The daily RSI rose to 86, putting ETH deep into overbought territory. If the weekly closing price is above $2450, pressure levels of $2500 and $3000 may be exposed.

Today's Ethereum price trend

According to data, the Ethereum price opened at US$2327 on August 21, then climbed to US$2448, and stabilized at around US$2397 as of press time. Ahead of the 3% daily gain, ETH had surged from below $2000 to above $2300 in two trading days.

The rally pushed Ethereum past several key levels that have limited its gains since April, including the psychological barrier of $2000 and the resistance zone of $2250. ETH also broke the Murray mathematical line of $2375 on the 4-hour chart, although prices struggled to hold on to that level after encountering resistance around $2448.

The momentum in the short-term time frame remains strong. In 4 hours, the Awesome Oscillator rose to 329.16 and showed an expanding green bar sequence, indicating that upward momentum has not weakened significantly.

However, daily charts show that ETH has deviated significantly from its previous trading range. Prices are currently trading about 5.5% above the upper track of US$2272 in the Bollinger Band, while the middle track of the indicator is still close to US$1957.

What are the factors driving Ethereum's rise?

According to SoValue data, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF recorded a net inflow of US$189 million on August 19, its strongest one-day performance since October 2025. Among them, BlackRock's ETHA contributed approximately US$122 million.

The buying of these ETFs occurred just as Ethereum broke through $2000, forcing traders holding leveraged short positions to close their positions. Data showed that during the initial breakout period, more than $1 billion of short Ethereum positions were cleared, resulting in broader cryptocurrency clearing events totaling more than $3 billion.

shows how ETH quickly moves through clearing clusters between $1900 and $2300. Forced buying related to short liquidations may have exacerbated the acceleration of the rally, although the breakthrough also coincided with new spot demand from U.S. -listed funds.

The macro environment also provides another catalyst. The U.S. Treasury Department announced that it will double the maximum size of longer-term nominal securities repurchases from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion. The change will take effect on September 9 and last until November 4. Investors interpret this as support for bond market liquidity. Subsequent weakening of U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar helped Bitcoin, Ethereum and other risky assets expand their gains.

Ethereum faces overbought signal below $2500

Immediate resistance for Ethereum is between $2448 and $2500. The lower boundary is the intraday high on August 21, while Murray's mathematical chart identifies $2500 as the next major resistance level. If it continues to exceed $2500, it may expose $2625, followed by $2750. The chart shows a stronger reversal risk around $2875, but ETH needs additional demand to hit these levels after such a sharp rise.

Daily momentum is the main short-term risk. Ethereum's 14-day Relative Strength Index jumped to 86.12, well above the 70 level usually associated with overbought conditions. The reading does not guarantee a reversal, but suggests that prices have risen much faster than their recent trend.

CoinGlass heat map identifies concentrated clearing areas around $2270 to $2350. Therefore, if it fails to break through US$2450, ETH may fall back to US$2375, followed by the US$2,300 - 2,250 region.

The US$2000 level is still the greater breakthrough support level. The mid-track of the daily Bollinger Band, close to $1957, and the dense clusters of heat maps around $1990, have strengthened the area, but such a deep correction will erase most of the latest gains.

Analysts focus on weekly closing of $2450

Cryptocurrency analyst Ted Pillows identified $2450 as the next resistance area for Ethereum. A weekly close above this zone could open up space to $3000, so the upcoming weekly close is crucial to confirm whether the breakout can continue, he said.

Market analyst Rain said ETH rose 17.1% in its initial one-day surge and pushed its weekly gain to more than 20% after breaking through resistance between $1980 and $2000. Rain also reported that the 30-day realized volatility rose from 39.6 to 62.6 in one day, showing how quickly the previous compression ended.

Rain said Ethereum must now prove $2000 can be used as a support level. Staying above this level would maintain the new market structure, while a deeper correction suggests that liquidation contributed more to the rise than continued spot demand.

U.S. regulation adds catalyst to the Ethereum market

This increase also follows the "Cryptographic Asset Regulation Proposal" released by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on August 18. The proposed framework would introduce customized registration exemptions for specific investment contracts involving crypto assets, including fundraising exemptions of up to $75 million per year. The proposal has not yet become law and will not immediately change the regulatory status of Ethereum. However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said its goal is to provide crypto asset issuers with clearer paths under federal securities laws, which improves the regulatory background for U.S. investors.

Ethereum's next move now depends on whether ETF demand and spot buying can absorb profit-taking around $2450. If a breakthrough is confirmed, US$2500 will become the focus; if it is rejected, there may be a cooling period due to overbought daily RSI, and the price will fall back to US$2375 or US$2300.