Arthur Hayes supports ETH, predicting that Bitcoin may reach its US$1 million target by 2030

Bitcoin still has the potential to see a significant rise in the next few years, but Hayes is not betting solely through BTC on

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said that Bitcoin still has the conditions to rise significantly in the next few years, but he does not intend to express this view through BTC alone. In a recent episode, Hayes believes that the macroeconomic environment may lay the foundation for Bitcoin to reach a "seven-digit" price by 2030-while revealing that he is currently deploying Ethereum because he sees faster, clearer risk-reward ratio.

Hayes 'comments came against the backdrop of divergent market views. In the same episode, Markus Thielen of 10x Research said it is "mathematically impossible" for Bitcoin to reach $1 million by 2030, citing the fact that the dynamics that previously drove capital inflows may not be reproduced at the required scale in the next four years. Hayes disputes this premise and points to different macro drivers.

Core Points

Arthur Hayes insists that Bitcoin may return to "seven digits" by 2030, basing this expectation on liquidity and macro policies rather than relying solely on spot demand.
Despite being bullish on Bitcoin, Hayes said he is currently buying ETH and expects ETH to "achieve a 3-to 5-fold increase relatively quickly."
Hayes is less optimistic about Hyperliquid's rising potential and believes that high expectations reduce the asymmetry when new capital enters.
Regarding BitMEX, Hayes said he felt positive about the exchange's closure because it ended "at our own will" and not because of a hack.

Why Hayes believes Bitcoin will reach US$1 million by 2030

The core of Hayes 'prediction is not a single indicator, but a collection of catalytic factors. In his view, the bursting of the AI bubble, widespread monetary expansion (large-scale money printing), and the possibility of yield curve controls in the United States are all factors that may support a continued risk-appetite cycle.

He also hinted that recent market lows may have already emerged. Hayes said that $58000 is "likely to be the bottom" for Bitcoin, after which prices could "fluctuate upwards" and described the current environment as an "disgusting rebound."

The key point readers need to understand is that Hayes is not simply calling for momentum trading. His argument is that macro liquidity conditions can reshape Bitcoin's demand curve and its performance may exceed expectations contained in models that focus more on capital needs.

This framework is important because Thielen's rebuttal-presented just a few weeks ago on the same show-takes the opposite approach. Thielen believes that the inflow needed to reach $1 million is so huge that the amount of capital Bitcoin has attracted over the past 15 years is unsustainable. In other words, one side is simulating the ability of incremental capital inflows, while Hayes is betting that macro policies may accelerate the transformation of the entire capital inflow mechanism.

Hayes shifts focus from Hyperliquid to Ethereum

Although Hayes remains constructive about Bitcoin, he expressed lack of confidence in Hyperliquid's rising potential. He believes that the market already knows about the project and has "huge expectations" for it, reducing the "asymmetry" that can make large capital allocations attractive.

Hayes added that his own allocation decisions also involve opportunity costs-he said that with already high expectations, Maelstrom Capital's deployment of funds into the broader "altcoin space" may provide "better risk-reward" than focusing on Hyperliquid.

These comments came shortly after U.S. President Trump said the United States was working hard to introduce Hyperliquid into the country. Hayes, who was pardoned by Trump in 2024, denied the idea that the president's remarks can directly drive the price of crypto assets. He believes that the real determining factors are the U.S. Treasury, the Federal Reserve and other monetary authorities, not political signals.

For Hayes,"irrelevant": Politics and Monetary Policy

Hayes believes that politicians 'remarks may be "interesting" but may not necessarily translate into price changes. He also questioned whether Trump would invest political capital in promoting crypto legislation-specifically mentioning the CLARITY bill, given competing priorities and sluggish voter interest.

For market participants, the key is not that politics never matters, but that Hayes 'perspective prioritizes macro policy mechanisms over headline risks. Within this framework, short-term announcements can affect the narrative, while long-term monetary conditions determine whether the broader market can maintain new highs.

BitMEX closes: Hayes calls the exchange a "smooth landing"

Hayes also talks about BitMEX, the derivatives exchange he co-founded with Ben Dolo and Samuel Reed in 2014. BitMEX recently announced that it will close on September 23 and urged users to close positions and withdraw funds before the deadline. Hayes said he "feels very good" about the shutdown precisely because it happened under the company's control.

He told the show that the exchange was closed "at our own will" and stressed that it was not closed due to a hack. He described this as "landing the aircraft in a controlled manner."

He also took the opportunity to say that operating a cryptocurrency exchange has become extremely difficult. In his view, competition is so fierce and operating costs are so high-especially in terms of security and the infrastructure needed for data centers-that unless companies have the size of major players like Binance or OKX, the business model is no longer feasible. This is an important signal for entrepreneurs and operators: Even well-known platforms may conclude that the cost of survival outweighs growth prospects.

Ethereum is currently the "first choice"

Hayes 'clearest point of action is his current preference for Ethereum. He called ETH his "first choice" currently and said that compared to Hyperliquid, Ethereum provides a better risk-reward ratio for investing "idle money" in the crypto space.

In his outlook, Ethereum has room for rapid growth. Hayes said he expected ETH to "achieve a 3-to 5-fold gain fairly quickly," adding that Hyperliquid could still rise, but he did not believe it was in a position to achieve a similar multiple.

Hayes also provides a structural reason: Ethereum is the foundation layer of DeFi, and although it is "hated" for various reasons, it is "long overdue" for a broader performance cycle. He pointed out the specific link between ETH and Bitcoin momentum, mentioning ETH's reaction as Bitcoin rose-in particular, saying he saw ETH "surge 20%" as Bitcoin rose.

"Everyone hates it. It is the only large crypto asset that has not yet exceeded its all-time high in 2021."

The practical significance for investors is that Hayes is actually moving from a high-expectation, high-profile deal (Hyperliquid) to an asset that he believes is both structural core and still trading at a price below a key historical benchmark. Whether this cycle can materialize will depend on how macro liquidity evolves and whether capital continues to flow into large networks rather than being dispersed to newer platforms.

Looking ahead, the market may focus on two things at the same time: whether the macro conditions highlighted by Hayes will translate into continued demand for key assets, and whether Ethereum can regain stronger relative momentum than Bitcoin and newer platforms. If the liquidity background changes, the debate between the "mathematics of capital inflows" and Hayes's macro-driven argument may soon go from theoretical to more verifiable.