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BTC Analysts: Bitcoin usually faces downside risks after a "golden cross"
Benjamin Cowen, a well-known cryptocurrency market analyst, conducted an in-depth analysis of the "golden cross" pattern in Bitcoin charts. This pattern refers to the 50-day moving average crossing the 200-day moving average upwards. Cowan pointed out that although this is technically seen as a bullish signal, investors tend to experience price declines shortly after the crossover occurs, contrary to widespread market expectations.
The correction belongs to the normal market structure
According to Cowan, before the gold crossover was formed, the market's rising trend pushed the moving average higher; however, once the crossover was completed, the market tended to sell off from local highs. By comparing historical data, Cowan noticed that during the gold crossover in 2019 and 2023, prices retreated by 12% to 15% at the time of the crossover, and then prices recovered and reached new local highs.
Cowan said that given the current market structure, the ongoing correction is very natural. He stressed that the key factor would depend on the nature of the rally that followed the decline rather than the depth of the initial selling wave. He added that it was unclear whether Bitcoin would hit a new high or form a lower peak after the sell-off ended.
Outlook for future scenarios
When discussing future scenarios, Cowan pointed out that if higher peaks form during the rebound, the bullish trend will strengthen. Instead, he pointed out that if the rebound weakens and forms a lower peak (as seen in 2014 and 2015), the risk of another downturn in the fourth quarter of this year could increase.
The above content does not constitute investment advice.
