Chainlink prices stabilize at $11 support, weakening as wallet volumes surge

Chainlink's surge in new wallets has largely subsided, with prices sticking to the Fibonacci support level of US$11.16

Chainlink (LINK)'s surge in new wallets has basically subsided, and only about a quarter of the activity during the August peak period is now available. However, active addresses perform far better than new addresses, and this volatility is mainly limited to the LINK token itself, rather than the entire cryptocurrency market.

The current price is holding at the Fibonacci retracement level of $11.16, which is the bottom of its support range and below the $11.74 neckline. This wallet growth is related to Chainlink's announcement of integrations with Coinbase, Schwab and Bottomline, rather than organic market demand.

In late August, Chainlink's network welcomed a wave of fresh wallets, but most of them had left. Sanitation's online data showed that the number of new addresses per day climbed to a peak of 1,601 from 974 in early August, and then fell back to 1,140. LINK prices are currently trading around $11.64, having previously surged to about $13.73 on September 3 prompted by news of a bank partnership. Tokens are currently being tested at a level with special technical weights.

The range of US$11.16 to US$11.74 is superimposed on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, the bottom of the significant support area, and the neckline of a potential double-top pattern. This makes this week a key decision point for chart movements.

New wallets are rapidly lost, and activity remains firm

The key difference revealed by the data is Retention rate. New addresses (the number of wallets that first came into contact with the Chainlink network) lost about three-quarters of their growth after their peak. The performance of active addresses was different, with the indicator rising from 3,599 to 5,572, and then slowing down to 4,821, retaining about two-thirds of the increase. This suggests that most of the initial interest dissipated after it arrived, while a large number of wallets with existing transactions remained.

• Daily new addresses: It was 974 at the beginning of August, peaked at 1,601, and is now 1,140 (retaining about 25% of the surge).
• Daily active addresses: It was 3,599 at the beginning of August, peaked at 5,572, and now stands at 4,821 (retaining approximately 66% of the surge).

For comparison, during the same time period, Solana's active addresses increased by 7.5% and Ethereum's increased by 5.2%. In contrast, Chainlink's fluctuations far exceed both. Sanitation comes with a note worth reiterating because it distinguishes data from interpretation: The rise in the number of active addresses does not confirm repeated returns of the same people, and may reflect more frequent transactions by a small number of wallets. The total address count records the activity rather than the intention behind it, so the retained participation is true, but its exact source is not determinable by the raw data. These numbers rule out a broad downwind effect on cryptocurrencies, as Solana and Ethereum barely moved during the same period. The wallet story belongs to LINK.

Coinbase, Schwab and Bottomline each bring different user groups

The timeline is consistent with Chainlink's trading flow, rather than a shift in retail sentiment. News came in late August that Coinbase chose Chainlink as the oracle layer for tokenizing U.S. stocks on the Base network, and Charles Schwab subsequently added LINK, alongside Solana and Avalanche to the brokerage business. Each headline provides a different group of users with a reason to first contact the Internet, which is the kind of surge in new addresses that fades once news is priced.

The impetus for September came from Bottomline. On September 3, the payment provider, which serves more than 600 banks and processes approximately $16 trillion in annual transactions, said it would use the ISO 20022 messaging protocol to connect institutions through Chainlink's Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) and runtime environments. The news pushed LINK higher to about $13.73 within days. Since the pilot bank and production date were not confirmed, the market regarded it as positioning rather than actual income and sold off the surge. This is the mechanism behind the double-top pattern on the daily chart: two catalysts, two pushes, and the second is weaker.

The day before, Wyoming chose Chainlink's Proof of Reserve to publish automated audit data for FRNT, making it the first U.S. state stablecoin to adopt this standard. The pace of two announcements in a week, one from wholesale payment providers and one from the state Treasury Department, attracted wallets visiting the Internet for the first time and explained the surge in addresses at the end of August better than any retail narrative.

Prices consolidate between Fibonacci level of US$11.16 and neckline of US$11.74

The Fibonacci retracement measures the entire journey from a June low of $7.01 to a September high of $13.73 and marks the level at which pullbacks tend to pause. The 0.382 retracement level fell at $11.16, forming the bottom of the support range drawn on the chart, and prices stayed above it. Directly above,$12.15 at 0.236 is the first resistance level that recovery must break. The 20-day moving average is at $11.74, within the same range, and also serves as the neckline for the double-top pattern, the low point between the two peaks of failure. If the daily close falls decisively below the line, the pattern will be confirmed, echoing the decisive resistance test LINK faced last month, and holding it keeps the bullish structure alive.

Fibonacci maps·US$7.01 low to US$13.73 high 0 -Swing high, limiting two rounds of push US$13.73 0.236 -First resistance above US$12.15 -Current price US$11.64 0.382 -Bottom of the support range US$11.16 0.5 -Overlapping Double Top Target US$10.37 0.618 -Gold pocket, close to SMA 50 US$9.58 1 -Swing low US$7.01

A close above $12.15 will invalidate the double-top pattern. The two scenarios are clearly separated at the Fibonacci level. On the upside side, recovering $12.15 and closing in the $12.50 to $13.00 range will neutralize the reverse reading and reopen the September high, which is why the same consolidation can be marked as a bull flag rather than a top. On the downside, losing the $11.16 floor points first to $10.37, then to the gold pocket of $9.58. This lower cluster has extra weight because it overlaps two other markers: the double top projection on the textbook is close to $9.9 to $10.0 (calculated by subtracting the pattern height from the neckline), and the 50-day moving average of $9.99.

Kinetic energy has turned, which is in line with cautious interpretation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a 0-100 indicator that measures buying and selling pressure, has retreated from more than 70 segments to 54.21 and fell below the signal line of 64.15. A reading below the signal signals a stagnation of upward momentum. The RSI also failed to print a higher peak with the second price high, a slight divergence that usually accompanies this pattern. The broader trend holds the opposite view. The 20-day moving average rose above the 50-day moving average, both above the 200-day moving average, both rising after the golden cross, and prices were well above the 200-day moving average of $9.09. This is a strong uptrend meeting its first real test, not a trend that has collapsed.

RSI (14)54.21 Below signal 64.15 Open interest contracts US$666.8 million Down from a peak of approximately US$784 million Daily Trading Volume US$660.62 million Same with recent range SMA 20 /neckline US$11.74 Level to hold on

Open interest contracts withdrew more than US$100 million from high. Positions in futures markets support the profit-taking story. Open interest (the total value of open derivative contracts) reached approximately $784 million during the surge on September 7, an 11-month high, before slowly falling to $666.81 million. Daily trading volume was approximately US$660.62 million. Price corrections accompany a decline in open interest contracts, usually indicating that traders are closing their positions rather than accumulating new short positions, which is read as deleveraging rather than an active bearish push.

Circle's Arc launch is the next real test

Recent catalysts have been added to the calendar, which distinguishes this setup from a purely technical standoff. Circle's Arc main network will go online on September 16, Chainlink has been named its oracle and connectivity partner, and the CCIP v1.5 upgrade (adding self-service token integration and zkRollup support) has yet to be audited. Both will push Chainlink's institutional narrative away from announced deals towards measurable use, which is the gap exposed by Bottomline's response. The question is whether this will lead to wallets that are retained rather than wallets that are left after a surge, which will be the question answered next time address data is printed.