TAO prices fall back: Market sentiment weakens and key support levels are to be tested
Bittensor (TAO) has recently seen a significant correction after a strong rise earlier this month. Token prices fell nearly 7% in 24 hours and have recorded continuous declines since Monday, September 7. At the same time, open interest contracts fell 14.3%, and the cumulative spot volume distribution (CVD) continued to decline, indicating that market demand was weakening. TAO has previously climbed to a high of $277, but the current weakness has caused traders to question whether buyers can quickly regain control of the situation.
Weak demand and key technical resistance
TAO hit a three-month high of $277 after launching Raydium, bringing long-lost confidence to bulls. However, the recent sell-off quickly erased some of the gains. Data showed open interest fell 14.3% in 24 hours and spot CVD has declined steadily since Monday, reflecting weakening demand in both the spot and derivatives markets.
This weak demand pattern poses a challenge for short-term bulls. If the weakness persists, TAO may face five consecutive trading days of decline, which will indicate that market selling pressure has increased. From a technical perspective, TAO faces significant resistance at $291.6, which was the all-time high in June this year. If it can exceed $291.6, it will provide support for further short-term gains; the psychological barrier of $300 is another obstacle. Market momentum is expected to improve only if strong demand drives prices to break through these two resistance zones at the same time. Otherwise, sellers may maintain control near current levels.
Macrostructure and potential opportunities
Weekly charts show a broader bearish structure. The low formed in April 2025 was around $167.8, while the two-week closing price in 2026 was below that level, confirming the market's bearish structure. Currently, the weekly relative strength index (RSI) is located near 49, indicating that kinetic energy is neutral and both long and short sides have room for operation. However, the Energy Wave Indicator (OBV) has been in a steady downward trend since October, suggesting that underlying buying pressures continue to weaken. As a result, TAO needs stronger volume support before bulls announce a trend reversal.
Outlook for key points:
- Bullish signal: A breakthrough of $291.6 will be an important bullish signal, and then the target points to the psychological level of $300. If the $300 resistance is successfully cleared, the short-term outlook will improve significantly.
- Main thresholds: The swing point of $377.8 is a key bullish threshold, and a break through this level will confirm a stronger weekly recovery.
- Potential Buying Zone: $190 is an important level for traders seeking low-risk entry. A further pullback to $190 could attract buyers to intervene, especially after the recent pullback. Traders can observe whether demand picks up again before considering establishing long positions.
In addition, the trend of Bitcoin (BTC) will also affect the short-term direction of TAO. If BTC falls again, it could curb demand for risky altcoins and make it difficult for TAO to regain momentum without broader market support. Prior to this, TAO still faces additional selling pressure risks.

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