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BTC 
ETH Bitwise: The Senate's setback is only temporary, not decisive.
Although the Senate suffered a setback in the vote on the CLARITY Act, Bitwise believes this is only a temporary obstacle, not a decisive failure. The rebound in Bitcoin prices contrasts sharply with the decline in the probability of passage of the bill, weakening the direct price correlation between the two.
While regulatory rules can be advanced, congressional legislation can provide greater legal certainty. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, had previously predicted that the setback could trigger a long-term downturn in the cryptocurrency market, but he currently calls the failure a "speed bump, not a roadblock."
Hagen pointed out that Bitcoin's increase since July and Wall Street's continued expansion of digital assets support this view. Bitcoin fell about 4% after Tuesday's Senate vote and clearing activity intensified in the crypto market, but this did not change long-term optimistic expectations.
Bitcoin's rebound weakens the view that "bill failure is bad"
Data shows that Bitcoin prices broke through the $80,000 mark on September 4 after hitting a low of $57,950 on July 1. During this period, the probability of passage of the bill on the Polymarket platform dropped from 39% to 18%. Hogan said the divergence weakened the argument that "the CLARITY Act is a necessary condition for this round of gains."
此次参议院正式投票以49票对50票的结果未能终止辩论（cloture）。该法案距离所需的60票还差11票。尽管投票结果阻止了进一步辩论，但并未最终否决这份市场结构法案。值得注意的是，四名共和党人反对终止辩论，而参议员汤姆·蒂利斯（Thom Tillis）在结果明朗后改变了投票立场，为后续重新审议保留了路径。
机构行动与监管路径并行
即便在联邦加密货币监管尚未完全解决之际，市场机构的创新仍在继续。Robinhood推出了其兼容以太坊的链；摩根士丹利引入了Solana和Ether相关的交易所交易产品；DTCC也处理了涉及约40家公司的代币化证券交易。这些举措表明，传统金融领域的接入正在加速。
侯根指出，SEC（美国证券交易委员会）和CFTC（美国商品期货交易委员会）的支持性领导层让金融机构对至2029年的前景充满信心。尽管《CLARITY法案》陷入停滞，但这两个监管机构均发出了继续制定规则的信号。
- SEC动态：8月18日，SEC提出了《加密资产法规》，其中包括量身定制的豁免条款和有条件的安全港机制。公众评论期将持续至10月。
- CFTC权限：CFTC可以在现有授权范围内采取行动。然而，只有国会才能扩大其对现货加密市场的管辖权。
虽然机构规则可以提供短期的指导，但它们可能面临诉讼或在未来政府更迭中被逆转。相比之下，《CLARITY法案》若能通过，仍能提供更强、更持久的法律确定性。
宏观压力仍是独立风险因素
除了监管不确定性外，宏观经济压力构成了另一重风险。美联储于9月16日将利率上调至3.75%-4.00%，这是自2023年以来的首次加息。随后，比特币交易价格回落至约76,274美元附近，同时约有5.71亿美元的加密多头头寸被清算。
目前，该法案仍未解决，且没有任何一家监管机构已最终确定全面的替代框架。市场参与者需密切关注后续立法进展及宏观政策变化。
