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ETH Ethereum supply milestone: More than 43 million ETH has been pledged. Can the price break through?
Ethereum has reached an important supply milestone: approximately 35% of ETH is currently in pledge status. However, despite increasingly tightening supply conditions in the crypto market, Ethereum prices have not been able to achieve sustained increases.
According to data from Ethereum.org, more than 43 million ETH have been pledged. At the same time, ETH is trying to recover after recently falling below the important support level of $2400. This trend has put pressure on the market's short-term bullish structure.
This divergence is very eye-catching: more and more ETH is being pledged and exchange balances continue to shrink, but buyer power is still not enough to drive a decisive breakthrough.
More than 43 million ETH entered the pledge network
Ethereum's official pledge data shows that more than 43 million ETH have been committed to secure the security of the Proof of Sole (PoS) network. Verification nodes pledge ETH to participate in transaction verification and receive rewards. As a result, a significant portion of Ethereum's total supply is temporarily unavailable for immediate trading, although these pledged ETH have not been permanently withdrawn from circulation.
这种供应动态变得愈发重要。Coinpaper近期探讨了以太坊是否正在“耗尽卖方”，因为随着交易所储备下降，质押比例持续攀升。资金离开交易所并不必然导致价格上涨，它们可能出于多种原因进入质押、机构托管或个人钱包。但是，如果交易所余额下降，且超过三分之一的ETH被质押，一旦需求突然加速，市场上可立即交易的供应数量将大幅减少。
为何以太坊涨幅不及预期？
问题的另一面在于需求端。ETH近期跌破2400美元，监管不确定性及ETF资金流出对更广泛的加密货币市场造成了负面影响。
这与几天前的情况形成了鲜明反差。当时，ETH曾挑战2600美元关口，交易员再次关注3000美元目标是否重现。机构需求也表现出不稳定性。本周早些时候，ETF资金回流，其中包括一次约1.21亿美元的净流入，但这种改善尚不足以促成ETH的持续性突破。
这解释了为何35%的质押里程碑不应自动被视为看涨信号。只有当新的需求涌入市场时，降低流动性供应的影响才会真正显现。若缺乏这一关键因素，以太坊可能在创下质押参与记录的同时，价格仍陷入盘整格局。
紧缩的供应能否推动ETH重返2600美元？
当前的以太坊价格预测取决于买方能否利用日益受限的供应背景获利。ETH首先需要站稳2400至2500美元区间。若能实现有力反弹，2600美元将重新成为焦点，随后交易员可能会重新评估更大的上行目标。
从技术面来看，存在更为乐观的预期。近期的“看涨旗形”形态表明，如果以太坊能突破更广泛的大盘整理区间，目标价可能指向约3050美元，尽管这一目标仍存在不确定性而非保证。
就目前而言，质押里程碑提供了另一种信号：超过4300万ETH已锁定在网络中，约35%的供应量被质押，且交易所余额持续下降。这些条件使得以太坊对未来需求增加更加敏感，因为可供即时交易的代币数量减少了。
然而，仅靠供应稀缺性是不够的。如果ETF和现货需求增强，而质押率维持在历史高位，这种组合将提高ETH收复2600美元并挑战更高阻力位的几率。反之，如果需求依然疲软，以太坊创纪录的质押参与度可能会继续与难以突破的价格表现共存。
