在ADA价格反弹之前，Cardano仍有问题亟待解决

Cardano 价格自六月低点反弹，但上涨图表并不能回答关于网络的所有问题

DeFi（去中心化金融）流动性依然薄弱，近期的活动数据在被称为“持久复苏”之前，还需要更仔细的观察。ADA 目前交易价格约为 0.22 美元，此前在 6 月底曾跌至接近 0.13 美元的低点。此后价格有所进展。Cardano 能否支持持续的反弹，取决于图表之外的情况。

回顾自 6 月以来的 ADA 价格走势，显示出一个上升通道。自 6 月下旬触底以来，Cardano 价格形成了更高的高点和更高的低点，ADA 目前仍在该通道内运行，价格约为 0.22 美元。这种模式表明买家正在以逐渐升高的价格回归。这也为复苏提供了一个读者可以遵循的结构。只要 ADA 保持在通道内，六月的低点看起来就越来越远。

向 0.25 美元的迈进将是一个更具挑战性的测试。价格涨幅可能会在网络使用情况改善之前出现，但持续的反弹将使 Cardano 的基础活动难以被忽视。这正是更大问题的开始之处。

Cardano 的 DeFi 流动性仍是更大的疑问

Cardano 拥有数十亿美元的市场价值，但其 DeFi 应用程序中的存款金额却小得多。总锁定价值（TVL）衡量的是存放在借贷平台和去中心化交易所等产品中的资产。

本文提供的数据显示，美元计价的 TVL 较 2024 年底的高峰大幅下降。然而，比较时需要谨慎，因为 ADA 自身的价格也下跌了。即使所有者将代币留在应用程序中，存入的 ADA 在美元价值上也会贬值。

衡量 Cardano DeFi 活动的两种方式说明了这种区别的重要性：

• 美元 TVL：远低于 2024 年底引用的约 6.8 亿至 7 亿美元峰值。代币价格 accounted for 部分跌幅。
• ADA 计价 TVL：估计在 3.65 亿至 5.52 亿 ADA 之间，而之前的峰值超过 6 亿 ADA。这表明存入的代币减少幅度较小。

与 Cardano 的市场价值相比，稳定币流动性仍然有限。稳定币为用户提供资金进行交易、借贷和提供流动性，而无需首先承担 ADA 的价格风险。因此，较低的美元 TVL 并不能证明用户撤出了大部分 ADA。有限的稳定币供应本身就是一个问题。薄弱的流动性池会使大额交易变得困难，从而降低用户和做市商将资本引入 Cardano 应用程序的动力。

此外，将 Cardano 连接到其他网络也需要大量工作。其 eUTXO 设计与以太坊兼容链使用的模型不同。构建者可以创建桥接和集成，但不能简单地复制所有现有工具。

Cardano 提出的 DeFi 激励措施可能有助于将资本带入生态系统。真正的考验将在稍后到来：一旦任何奖励结束，用户是否会留下。

更多的人真的在使用 Cardano 吗？

更长期的交易趋势给 Cardano 带来了另一个需要解决的问题。本文提供的数据显示，2022 年平均每日交易量约为 90,294 笔，而 2026 年前 8 个月的平均每日交易量仅为 24,869 笔。如果两个数据使用相同的方法，这意味着下降了约 72.5%。

近期月度活跃地址数的增加提供了不同的视角。提供的数据显示增长了 63%，达到约 306,600 个。这值得密切关注，但月度地址计算的是在此期间至少出现过一次的钱包。它们并未显示每天有多少人返回。

活动的类型也很重要。一次治理投票可能让一个休眠的钱包上线一次，但常规的应用程序使用将是持续需求的更强有力证据。

Cardano 的质押系统有助于解释为何网络可以在没有高交易量的情况下拥有committed的 ADA 持有者。持有者可以将 ADA 委托给质押池，而无需频繁转账或使用 DeFi。庞大的质押社区并不必然产生日常的应用程序活动。

This does not mean that the recent increase in address numbers is meaningless. That means Cardano will need longer periods of transaction logging, application usage and fee growth before it can view the increase as a broader recovery.

Why network growth may matter to ADA prices

More users may help increase Cardano prices, but this connection does not happen automatically. The strongest arguments come from activities that continue over time and provide practical reasons for people to own or use ADAs.

Network growth may play a role in the following ways:

• DeFi use deepens liquidity: More capital in lending and trading applications can make these products easier to use.
• More transactions may incur higher fees: Cardano pays pledge rewards from fees and separate reserves. Higher fee income will reduce its reliance on reserves over time.
• Demand for stablecoins may support larger markets: A deeper pool of stablecoins could make Cardano more useful to traders, lenders and application builders.

These possibilities need to be kept moderate. Current DeFi deposits account for only a small portion of ADA's circulating supply, so they will not cause an immediate squeeze on supply. Cardano's pledge is also liquid, which means that the entrusted ADA will not be locked up and cannot be sold.

Projects such as Midnight could bring new users into Cardano's broader ecosystem. Their impact on ADA prices will depend on how these users interact with the ADA itself. Successful products elsewhere in the ecosystem do not automatically create equal demand for tokens.

What suggests Cardano is closing the gap?

Cardano needs to make progress on multiple indicators beyond the busy week. Lasting improvements will appear in several data simultaneously, especially as ADA prices remain relatively stable during the comparison period.

Higher DeFi deposits as measured by ADA will suggest that the change is more than just an increase in token prices. More stablecoin liquidity will provide more room for users to trade and borrow. Consistent daily transaction volume, app usage and fee growth will show people have reason to return.

The balance is important here. Cardano doesn't need every metric to reach its previous peak immediately. It does need evidence that its applications are becoming more useful and that recent activity continues after short-term events.

ADA Price Analysis

ADA's rising channel has kept the recovery from late June lows alive. Looking at the chart shows Cardano prices close to $0.22, with the next resistance level at around $0.25.

If $0.25 holds firm as resistance, ADA may continue to trade below that level in the channel. Breaking through it will put $0.30 in the spotlight. If the Cardano price subsequently clears $0.30, a move towards $0.50 could become possible in the coming weeks or months.

These are chart scenarios, not guaranteed goals. The ADA has resumed, but if DeFi mobility, regular usage and network fees improve along with prices, the case for a continued rebound will become stronger. The next test will be whether Cardano can make progress on both charts and networks.

FAQs

Is Cardano ADA a good investment?
Investing in Cardano (ADA) involves high risks due to the sharp drop in prices and low user activity compared to competing blockchains.

Will Cardano hit $1 in 2026?
Most major market forecasts and analysts believe that the possibility of Cardano (ADA) hitting $1 in 2026 is very slim.