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BTC JPMorgan Chase: Bitcoin's breakthrough of the production cost line gives miners some breathing space
The Block reported that analysts at JPMorgan Chase believe that if Bitcoin continues to maintain its upward trend, its recent trend of breaking through the bank's estimated US$85,000 production cost line will provide some room for relief for miners.
Bank analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou pointed out that Bitcoin has exceeded this price barrier this week after falling below production costs for 280 consecutive days.
Historical role of production costs as a "soft bottom"
Analysis points out that Bitcoin's production costs have historically served as the "soft bottom" for its price. When BTC trades below this bottom line, miners with higher electricity and equipment costs may suffer losses. In this case, miners may be forced to sell BTC, shut down operations, or even withdraw from the market.
Analysts emphasize that chronic low profits have forced Bitcoin miners to relocate equipment to areas with lower electricity costs, sell, scrap or recycle old equipment, or even put machines on standby. The last time this occurred was in 2018, when Bitcoin lingered within the range below estimated production costs for 224 days.
Although today's Bitcoin mining industry has expanded significantly, similar survival pressures still exist as high-cost miners withdraw.
Price increases reduce forced selling risk
该银行的分析师表示，当前比特币价格突破生产成本线的态势可为矿工提供些许慰藉：“只要这种趋势得以维持，新的背景环境应为比特币矿工提供缓解，从而降低他们被迫抛售的风险。”
转向AI业务与哈希率下滑
多位矿工已将重心转向人工智能（AI）业务。分析师指出，由于AI公司愿意为现成的基础设施支付高额溢价，AI业务对这些矿工而言显得更具可预测的盈利能力和稳定性。
然而，随着越来越多的矿工将其设施的一部分资源分配给AI业务，摩根大通分析师指出，比特币网络的哈希率正在放缓。事实上，自去年10月比特币创下超过126,000美元的峰值以来，哈希率已从高点下滑19%，挖矿难度也下降了15%。
矿工结构变化有助于网络去中心化
分析师注意到，随着公开上市的矿商转向AI领域，私有拥有者和主权矿商在运营中的份额正在增加。他们认为，这种局面有助于比特币网络避免集中度风险，并在除减半事件之外的未来时期实现生产成本的缓慢上升。
截至撰写本报告时，根据Decibel数据，比特币交易价格为83,790美元。
