赫哥塔之后：以太坊，但林·但林认为明年将迎来最后一次正常分叉

以太坊迎来“Hegotá”分叉：一个时代的终结与密码学世界计算机的演进

以太坊将于明年进行一次名为“Hegotá”的分叉，此后将开启一个新的纪元。这是联合创始人Vitalik Buterin于2026年9月27日发布的题为《密码学世界计算机》一文的核心观点。Buterin指出，“Hegotá”很可能是该网络的最后一次“常规”分叉，其特性和技术仍能被2015年的人所识别。在此之后，一切都将关乎递归STARKs、自动化形式化验证、高度优化的共识程序以及使整个系统具备抗量子安全性的任务。

对于持有者而言，目前无需采取任何行动。没有截止日期，没有代币兑换，也没有地址会在明天失效。重要的是方向：以太坊授权交易的方式、验证区块的方式以及你的钱包与网络通信的方式，在未来几年内都将发生变化。今天决定托管方式的人，实际上也在决定未来转换过程中自己将承担多少工作量。

周二中午，以太坊的交易价格在2,711美元至2,722美元之间波动（具体取决于数据源）。Buterin的文章并未引起价格波动，这是一个准确的发现：这是一项着眼于数年未来的技术演进，而非短期的交易冲动。

Vitalik Buterin在9月27日的论述要点

Buterin的论述起点是对“区块链”一词的批判。他逐节审视了原始的比特币白皮书，并将2010年的每种方法与以太坊计划在2030年解决相同任务的方式进行了对比。他的结论是：在几乎每一个部分中，方法已经或即将发生改变。

• 交易授权：2010年由签名回答；而在2030年，有时将是抗量子签名，有时是多个签名，有时则是零知识证明。
• 节点验证：2010年由下载并重新执行所有内容来回答；而在未来，只需检查SNARK（简洁非交互式argument of knowledge）以及通过PeerDAS进行数据可用性验证即可。

零知识证明是一种密码学方法，一方可以在不透露底层数据的情况下向另一方证明某个陈述为真。SNARK和STARK是此类证明的两种构造；STARKs摒弃了预生成的秘密，根据目前的理解，被认为具有抗量子计算能力。PeerDAS是一种方法，节点通过抽样检查来确定区块数据是否真正可用，而无需加载所有数据。

基于此，Buterin得出了一个超越技术的结论：像Lean升级后的以太坊这样的现代密码学网络，之所以仍被称为“区块链”，主要是出于历史原因。实质上，它是Satoshi Nakamoto核心思想与经过五十年学术研究涌现出的密码学工具的结合体，而这些工具在2009年要么不存在，要么尚未成熟。

Hegotá：2015年用户能理解的最后一个分叉

Hegotá是Buterin提到的计划于明年进行的以太坊升级名称。他指的是开发者社区粗略勾勒的路线图（strawmap）。他在文章中明确指出：“Hegotá可能是以太坊最后一个正常的分叉。”此后将进入一个新阶段，变化的不再是单个参数，而是构建本身。

这里的“正常”一词承载了真正的信息。一个正常的分叉会调整费用规则、引入新的交易类型或改进现有流程。2015年的用户都能理解这些内容。但Buterin预期的后续变化对该用户来说将是陌生的：用证明取代重新执行，基于不同数学原理的签名方案，以及由多方参与的区块生产而非单一生产者。

It should be pointed out that the road map is not a promise. Buterin himself mentioned the vision for the next three years, many of which are still in the research or early implementation stages. Each component must undergo regular review by core developers, and the dates for Ethereum development change frequently. Deducing specific dates from this article is an overinterpretation.

Recursive STARKs: How Ethereum proves a block instead of re-executing it

The current rule is: Anyone who wants to determine that a block is valid must re-execute it. Full nodes load transactions and run them again. This is why running your own nodes consumes storage space and computing time. The roadmap reverses this relationship: blocks come with their own certificates, and nodes only need to verify the certificates.

Recursion means that proofs aggregate proofs, ultimately forming a compact proof that represents a long list of operations. In practice, this means two things: First, the threshold for self-verification is lowered. Buterin explicitly mentions this as a side effect of privacy: People running their own nodes do not have to reveal to anyone the addresses they are interested in, and as the computing load disappears, it becomes easier to run nodes. Secondly, the role of the light client has changed. So far, they have only followed consensus, but must trust the honest majority for effectiveness. In the future, they should be able to establish their own data availability and calculations.

Anti-quantum signature and transaction authorization

对持有者影响最直接的一点位于Buterin表格的第一行。今天，签名证明你授权了交易。该签名基于椭圆曲线，一种在当前密码学理解下，足够大的量子计算机可能破解的方法。对于2030年，Buterin描述了不同的状态：有时是抗量子签名，有时是多个签名，有时是零知识证明。

以太坊基金会也在其公开路线图的网络安全部分将抗量子性列为工作领域。同样，这里没有出现切换日期，只有目标描述。这对你的影响更多取决于你访问余额所使用的软件，而非协议本身：你的钱包必须支持新的签名类型，在设备上则意味着新的固件。因此，日常使用中的样子取决于你的托管路径，而非协议；在欧洲层面，监管机构和管理人现在也关注这一问题。

此处需加一项限定，因为常被忽略：从“Hegotá是最后一个正常分叉”这一事实，并不能推导出以太坊在此之后就是抗量子的。它只表明工作重心将在Hegotá之后移至此处。对于一个拥有如此数量钱包、应用程序和合约的网络，从意向声明到全面实施的签名切换之间还有数年和许多中间步骤。

Hegotá之后的权益证明：少槽终局性与质押者的观察点

在共识方面，Buterin描述了从工作量证明到今天的权益证明，再到“高度优化”形式的路径。他特别提到了 few-slot finality , which means finality is achieved in a few slots rather than today's waiting period of about fifteen minutes, and "available chains", which are chains whose data can be verified to be available. In addition, block production involves multi-party participation, including through the FOCIL mechanism, which no longer allows the right to include transactions to be monopolized by a single builder.

If you pledge ETH through a provider or run your own validator, this will affect you in two ways. Faster finality shortens the time it takes for operations to be considered complete, which may speed up deposits and withdrawals from exchanges and pledge services. Any change in consensus means that validators must update clients before the deadline. People who miss dates will not receive rewards during this period and risk fines. This is not a new insight, but it is why serious pledges need to be maintained.

Buterin also mentioned in the article how the path of transactions entering the network will change. Today, it goes from the user to the mempool and then to the block producer. In the future, the memory pool itself should bring privacy attributes, and signatures and certificates should be separated as soon as possible and bundled by memory pool nodes. This may sound technical, but has one visible consequence: it is more difficult to read who is planning what from the memory pool, which is the source of many of today's pre-emptive trading attacks.

PeerDAS and Light Clients: Increased Weight of Small Nodes

PeerDAS是路线图中已经开始过渡的组件。节点不再加载所有数据，而是进行抽样，从而确定数据是否真正发布。存储历史的逻辑也是如此：不是每个节点保留所有内容，而是每个节点仅保留一小部分，分布在网络上。

对你而言，这主要关乎独立性。自有节点的成本越低，不仅相信钱包软件报告的数字，而且将其与网络进行检查就越现实。今天这对大多数私人持有者来说是不可能的，因此每个钱包都要求助服务提供商。想知道不同提供商如何处理这种依赖关系差异的人，可以参考软件钱包比较。

硬件钱包与软件钱包：持有者在签名标准中应注意的事项

签名方案的切换不是通过区块链，而是通过软件更新到达你的。这提出了你现在就可以针对托管路径回答的问题，无需等待Hegotá。

• 你的设备还能获取固件吗？只要制造商继续交付新方案，硬件钱包就适合未来。旧型号最终会停止支持，届时正好缺少网络期望的签名类型。
• 你知道恢复路径吗？任何安全保存恢复短语的人都可以更换设备。没有的人则受制于单一制造商的支持。
• 你的提供商知道密钥属于谁吗？如果你的ETH存放在交易所，它会完全承担这项工作。这很方便，并将风险转移到其偿付能力和监管上。
• 你使用智能合约账户吗？由合约控制的账户比绑定单一密钥的经典账户更能灵活适应新方案。这正是路线图中“账户抽象”术语所针对的目标。

通过ETP持有ETH：谁交出密钥问题

一些德国投资者根本不直接持有以太坊，而是通过证券账户中的交易所交易产品持有。对于这个群体来说，签名问题是发行方及其托管人的事务。你获得的是债务工具或股份，而不是私钥，因此话题从你的固件转向发行方风险。德国有哪些途径，以及如何识别成本和结构，详见我们的德国证券账户加密ETF和ETP概述。

这不是支持或反对任一途径的理由。这是任务的划分：自我托管给你控制权和维护义务。证券账户中的产品让你免于维护，并给你一个你无法影响其信用状况的交易对手。

持有期限与税务：协议升级对取得日期的影响

Each major upgrade raises a question: Does it have an impact on tax holding periods? Under Germany's current understanding, a one-year period for private disposal of privately held crypto assets is applicable, and an upgrade of the agreement does not constitute acquisition: your ETH is still the same asset and has not been exchanged or newly acquired. The situation is different if the fork produces two chains with two tokens, or if you sell and re-buy a position during the switching process.

Regarding Hegotá, there is currently no record of a split pointing to the chain; it is described as a planned upgrade that the developer community has jointly followed. Although what gives you certainty is the documentation of your own transaction: purchase date, quantity, price and equivalent amount per move. People who maintain continuous records never need to rebuild backwards when upgrading. Binding answers to your case come from tax advice, not trade articles.

Outstanding Things: Dates, Intermediate Steps and Research Status

Following Buterin's article, there are three points clearly outstanding that are part of any assessment. Hegotá 's time is roughly named "next year"; the article does not give a date. The order of the components after Hegotá has not been determined;Buterin describes a bundle of directions, not a sequence. Maturity varies: PeerDAS has already begun, while real-time proof and quantum-resistant signature schemes for entire blocks are, according to him, partially still in the research or early implementation stages.

Then, it is the direction, not the calendar, that is solid. Deducing price forecasts from them is a source of overstretch: roadmaps that span years do not drive daily prices, and there are no statements about valuations in the article. However, it is correct to infer that the hosting requires maintenance, which does not require a date.

Ethereum after Hegotá: Summary and recommendations

Find out how long your hosting path supports: Check if your device can still receive firmware and if your recovery phrase is within reach. Hardware wallet comparisons show which manufacturers continue to deliver and for how long.

For pledges, clarify who is responsible for updating the client: If it is your own validator, it is you; if it is a service provider, it is the provider. For what models exist and their costs, please refer to the overview of pledge platforms.

Consciously choose between keys and securities accounts: If you don't want to take on maintenance work, the products in your securities account are more honest than self-custody arrangements where you don't maintain them; relevant paths can be found in the German Crypto ETF Overview.

(As of September 29, 2026. This article does not constitute investment advice. Price and fee structures are subject to change; please check terms with your provider before purchasing. The main source is Vitalik Buterin's article "Cryptography World Computers" published on September 27, 2026.)