10月1日解锁10亿XRP：决定走势的关键点位

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October 1 XRP monthly lock and unlock: a key node in the supply-demand game

On October 1, XRP's monthly time lock was opened again. This time, the unlock date coincides with the price just recovering from the correction. Based on current prices, up to 1 billion XRPs will be released from escrow accounts, worth up to approximately US$1.55 billion. For investors, the core question is not whether supply will increase, but how much will actually flow into the market and where the support level is below.

On Tuesday afternoon, XRP traded at $1.518 (approximately 1.339 euros), up about 1.5% in 24 hours. The trading range for the day was $1.464 to $1.561. For comparison, the price of Bitcoin was US$83,163 during the same period, down 0.4%. As a result, XRP outperformed the broader market, which is why this time point on Thursday attracted much attention.

Today's price trend of XRP: Consolidation two days before unlocking

In the past few days, the price has tested twice around US$1.46 and rebounded upwards. Upper resistance is at the day's high of $1.561. This narrow fluctuation range of about 6% is not common in XRP history, indicating that both long and short sides are waiting for the same time point.

Looking at the longer time period, the outlook is relatively friendly. According to data, XRP rose by 48.1% in the third quarter, setting the strongest quarterly performance in four years. However, prices are still significantly below their historical highs. Admission is not at the bottom or top, but at the middle of a period of predictable supply surges.

The truth behind the data: unlocking does not mean selling

在这样的日期面前，没有时间戳的价格数字毫无意义。本节所有数据均基于周二下午的情况。到了周四早上，情况可能发生重大变化，尤其是在解锁前后，价格变动以分钟计，而非天。因此，请牢记关键价位，而非具体的瞬时价格。

简单解释托管机制： XRP账本中的托管是一种协议层面的时间锁定。2017年，Ripple公司将大量XRP存入此类合约，每个合约在固定时间点释放设定数量的代币。XRP账本的技术文档描述了这一机制：托管对象持有金额，时间戳给出最早领取时间，只有后续的交易才能真正提取资金。

重要的是要理解：释放（Release）不等于出售（Sale）。 近年来，Ripple通常会将释放出的大部分资金重新投入新的托管合约中，期限往往长达数月。真正流入市场的是较小的剩余部分，用于分发协议、机构销售和运营成本。

术语辨析： 在报道中常看到Escrow（托管）、Unlock（解锁）和Release（释放）三个词并列。托管是合约，解锁指截止时间到期，释放指结果状态。这个过程总是意味着一定数量的XRP在技术上变得可用。至于是否被卖出，则是另一回事。

10月1日释放量及其对市场的影响

The reported upper limit is 1 billion XRPs. The specific dollar value depends on the price: at $1.518, a billion XRP would be about $1.52 billion; if the price fell to $1.40 on Thursday, it would be $1.4 billion. The oft-quoted valuation of $1.55 billion is based on price assumptions around $1.55.

The key lies in the actual proportion of people entering the trading venue. Historically, this ratio has typically been well below half. Therefore, during the first 48 hours after release, attention should be paid to the inflow of funds to the exchange address. If it increases significantly, it means that real selling pressure is coming; if it remains stable, the date is only a book operation and has no material impact on the market.

Hedging effect of ETF inflows and new supply

At the other end of the scale is spot ETFs. Data showed that the cumulative net inflow for six consecutive months was approximately US$1.77 billion, with US$22.65 million inflow on September 25 alone. This is not a daily chore, but a steady flow of money.

Comparing the two side by side shows the true balance of power. In theory, a single surge in supply of US$1.5 billion was faced with absorbing US$1.77 billion in demand within six months. If only a small amount of the release reaches the market, current ETF demand is mathematically enough to absorb it in a few weeks; if the full release is made, it will not.

Additional pressure brought by October

Markets are pricing a possible interest rate adjustment by the U.S. Federal Reserve on October 28. XRP does not produce a sustained return on revenue. In contrast, short-term Treasury yields are well above 5%, and without an interest advantage, coins usually give way first when interest rates are expected to rise. Therefore, the unlock date is not in a neutral environment.

Support $1.46 and Resistance $1.56: Interval analysis of the past 24 hours

There are three relevant regions in the next few days, each region being supported by price behavior rather than intuitive judgment:

$1.464 (intraday low): Prices have reversed twice recently. A daily close below this level will undermine the foundation of recovery.
$1.561 (intraday high): Next obstacle level. After the breakthrough, the price space will open up to the area before this correction.
$1.30 to $1.40: The next potential takeover area pointed out by many market observers may appear if $1.46 is lost. This is about 8% to 14% lower than current prices.

These levels are not predictions, but measurement points. Use them to make decisions in advance rather than improvise when the market changes.

Bullish and bearish logic for October

When there are differences in expectations, both positive and negative views should coexist, and the source must be noted.

Optimistic view: Based on the observation that institutions and large private holders currently tend to increase their holdings rather than reduce their holdings. Analysis showed that about 470 million coins were bought in the German market environment, with an ETF inflow of US$75.59 million within a week, and about 580 million XRPs were withdrawn from trading venues. Those holding this view believe that the unlock date has been fully priced by the market.

Caution: starts precisely with the above fact of strong inflows but weak price response. When demand of this magnitude cannot drive prices up, it suggests that sellers in the background are selling chips. Add in the supply released by custody, and the $1.30 to $1.40 area may be hit faster than the weekly chart shows. The two interpretations are based on the same data but come to different conclusions. This is an honest market reality.

European investors buy XRP: Compliance, Fees and Taxation

With the European MiCAR regulation coming into effect, trading platforms need to be authorized by cryptographic service providers to serve EU customers. The difference lies at the practical level: Authorized providers are subject to regulatory supervision and must isolate customer funds and maintain complaint channels. Please check whether your trading platform is authorized before purchasing, rather than just in a transition period.

Cost Note: Two often overlooked costs deserve attention. One is the Spread, which is applicable to every transaction, even if the promotion is zero handling fee; the other is the withdrawal fee, which is deducted when transferring out. These two items may be higher in small transactions than the transaction fee itself.

Tax considerations: For German private investors, XRP is considered an asset under Section 23 of the Income Tax Act. The rules are as follows: If you sell it with a profit within one year of purchase, the proceeds are subject to tax; if you hold it for more than one year, you are exempt. In addition, the annual tax exemption for private disposal transactions is € 1,000; if this limit is exceeded, all proceeds will be subject to tax, not just the excess.

Specifically: People buying today in anticipation of recovery after unlocking will have a tax deadline of September 29, 2027. Conversely, people who hold stocks since the fall of 2025 should check the purchase date of each batch before selling in October. When making multiple purchases, the first-in, first-out principle applies in practice, and selling a few days before the deadline may result in high tax costs. Using tax tools to automatically manage batch sequencing simplifies this arithmetic process.

Tax Documentation Required: The record of each position should include the purchase date, quantity, euro-denominated purchase price and fee, and equivalent details of the sale. Keep transaction records of the exchange. If the trading platform closes or you lose access, back-export is often no longer possible and the burden of proof lies on you.