比特币价格警告：BTC或正为多头设下巨大陷阱

比特币价格警告：BTC 可能正在为多头设置巨大陷阱

今日比特币市值约为 84,000 美元，上周的反弹之后，市场情绪依然不明朗。本月早些时候，BTC 曾短暂突破 87,000 美元关口，但这一走势并未演变为多头所期望的持续上涨行情。近期的交易反而将比特币拉回了 80,000 美元出头的低位区间。

加密货币分析师 CryptoCon 认为，这种犹豫不决的局面可能比表面看起来更为重要。他一直对“比特币真正的牛市阶段已经开启”这一观点持怀疑态度，而他最新发布的对数 MVRV（市场价值与已实现价值比率）图表又给了他保持谨慎的理由。在他看来，市场可能仍在构建一个令人信服的熊市结束假象，而非准备立即冲击新的历史高点。

本次比特币的 MVRV 结构有所不同

CryptoCon 的图表追踪了比特币价格走势以及 MVRV 的对数版本。MVRV 是一种旨在比较比特币市值与其最后一次流动时所隐含价格的指标。他图表中的关键部分在于重复出现的周期结构。

In previous Bitcoin cycles, there have been clear primary tops, secondary tops, followed by a return to CryptoCon labeled the "bottom area of the cycle." However, the current cycle does not fully follow this pattern. During 2024 and 2025, although the MVRV line produced multiple weaker peaks, it never fell back to the bottom of the green cycle below. This is what he finds suspicious. If the old cyclical structure still applies, Bitcoin may have skipped a link in history that normally occurs before the next major expansion.

Periodic peaks are weakening

Another detail on the chart is the long-term downward trend of MVRV peaks. The main tops in 2013 and 2017 are well above the levels recorded in 2021, 2024 and 2025. CryptoCon interprets this as evidence that the peak of the Bitcoin cycle is becoming less extreme. That alone is not necessarily a negative signal. As Bitcoin becomes a larger asset, lower relative valuation extremes make sense.

The bigger question is what happens next. One possibility is that the MVRV continues to compress over time and will never return to the bottom of the old cycle until Bitcoin moves higher. CryptoCon acknowledges this situation exists, but he is not convinced. His concern is that traders may assume that the structure of the current cycle has changed simply because Bitcoin has not yet experienced a reset process like the old cycle.

<> Source: X/@CryptoCon

该图表为另一次重大重置留下了空间。图表底部的绿色区域是 CryptoCon 标记的前几个周期低点出现的位置，分别出现在 2015 年、2018 年和 2022 年左右。他目前的预测显示，另一轮可能的访问将在 2026 年底左右到达该区域，而不是显示比特币立即进入垂直牛市阶段。这并不意味着他预言比特币会暴跌至某个具体的美元价位。该图表展示的是 MVRV 周期结构，而非直接的 BTC 价格目标。他的更广泛观点是，估值数据尚未表现出其在熊市场周期完成时历史上应有的行为方式。这意味着市场仍可能需要一段压力期、横盘交易或下行阶段，才能开始更具说服力的长期上涨。

11 月至次年 1 月可能是关键窗口期

CryptoCon 认为，从 11 月到次年 1 月的这段时间可以回答最大的疑问。如果比特币在此期间开始加速冲向新的历史高点，那么“旧的 MVRV 周期结构已发生改变”的论点将变得非常有力。相反，如果 BTC 停滞不前、失去动能或开始另一次较大的回调，那么最近的反弹可能开始看起来更像是一个针对那些认为熊市已经结束的交易者的陷阱。

His words were deliberately cautious. He is not saying that new highs are unlikely, but rather questions whether the market has won them. This difference is important because Bitcoin has demonstrated the speed of mood reversal this year. BTC recently hit an eight-month high above $87,000, before falling back to around $84,000, while treasury yields and broader macro pressures continue to create resistance for risky assets.

Can this really be a bull market trap?

It is too early to conclude that the current trend is a confirmed bull trap. Bitcoin is still well above its 2026 lows, and institutional demand has not disappeared. Even as BTC struggled around $84,000, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF even recorded a net inflow on September 28. However, CryptoCon's chart makes a reasonable point: this cycle has not yet completed some of the same valuation resets that occurred in previous cycles.

This means that traders are actually placing bets in one of two situations: either Bitcoin's cycle structure has changed sufficiently that the old MVRV bottom is no longer necessary, or the market still has unfinished business before entering the next major bull market. Currently, Bitcoin around $84,000 lies right between these two interpretations.

CryptoCon clearly leans towards patience. Even if the main low is over, he doesn't expect a period of real optimism to begin immediately.