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BTC 比特币与黄金关系新分析：相关性趋近纪录高点，但走势出现分化
近期出现了一项关于比特币和黄金的最新分析。多年来，这两种资产一直被视为彼此最大的竞争对手。Coinbase Institutional 发布了一份新的评估报告，重点阐述了比特币与黄金之间的关系。
Coinbase Institutional 指出，比特币与黄金的90天相关系数正接近历史高位。然而，该机构强调，高相关性并不意味着两种资产将产生相同的回报。
比特币近期表现领先，与黄金走势背离
Coinbase Institutional 的分析显示，尽管比特币（BTC）与黄金的90天相关系数接近纪录高点，但在近期的收益表现上，比特币优于黄金。
分析指出，在过去一个月中，比特币价格上涨，而同期黄金价格下跌。这意味着，虽然这两种资产往往朝相似方向移动（即相关性较强），但在特定时期内，它们的价格走势可能会出现显著分歧。
分析报告中的另一个关键点是，在利率上升的环境中，新增的投资需求转向了比特币。Coinbase Institutional 表示，尽管利率较高，边际需求仍青睐比特币。
The report concluded: "Bitcoin is superior to gold. The correlation between Bitcoin and gold is close to record levels. But similar correlations do not represent similar rates of return. In the past month, Bitcoin has risen while gold has fallen. The lesson we learned is that despite rising interest rates, marginal demand remains biased towards Bitcoin."
Bitcoin faces its first major test
Cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute also evaluated Bitcoin. In its latest market analysis, Wintermute pointed out that Bitcoin closed above the 50-week moving average for the first time last week, the first time since November 2025.
The company said that after this recent round of gains, market attention has shifted to the US$82,500 price.
Wintermute believes that the US$82,500 price is a key position for Bitcoin this week. This area constitutes the upper limit of the previous consolidation range, and maintaining this level is crucial to the sustainability of the recent rally. According to Wintermute, if prices can continue to operate above this level-although prices have struggled to break through this resistance in previous weeks-this could indicate that the first close above the 50-week moving average points to a more persistent price pattern rather than short-term volatility.
However, Wintermute also pointed out that although the US$82,500 price is expected to be tested several times in the short term, if the price closes below that level, it may raise questions about the effectiveness of this upward breakthrough.
此外，Wintermute 还注意到，尽管美国10年期国债收益率升至5%以上，创下2007年以来的最高水平，但风险资产上周依然保持强劲势头。
以上内容不构成投资建议。
