比特币价格分析:日线图
过去几个月,比特币从6万美元区域强势反弹,目前交易价格在8.4万美元左右。图表显示,BTC已重新站上主要移动平均线之上,短期结构依然向好,但受到清晰供应区的压制。与此同时,调整后的实现利润率(SOPR)已回升至1以上,表明 realized profitability(已实现盈利能力)正在改善。
日线图显示,比特币从6万美元的需求区域经历了显著的结构复苏。随后,BTC收复了6.7万美元的阻力区,并在8月份大幅走高,强势突破100日和200日移动平均线。
目前,200日移动平均线位于7.1万美元附近,而100日移动平均线正从下方7万美元附近汇聚。两者均低于当前市场价格,且已开始拐头向上,正处于潜在看涨交叉的边缘,这使得更广泛的市场结构保持建设性态势。因此,此前6.7万美元附近的阻力位已转化为重要的结构性支撑区域。
在8月突破之后,BTC在7.5万至8万美元区间建立了另一个整合区域,随后向8.8万美元区域推进。该7.5万至8万美元区域仍是最近的重大日线支撑区,而6.7万美元区域则代表更深层的结构性支撑。
The main obstacle is supply pressure above. The first major resistance area is roughly between $88,000 and $90,000, followed by the high supply area around $95,000. BTC needs to recover these areas to extend its current recovery beyond $100,000 and could point to new historical highs.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart
The 4-hour chart provides a more immediate view of the current consolidation market. BTC quickly pulled up from the US$75,000 region, crossed the US$82,000 region, and then accelerated towards the US$86,000 resistance level.
Prices have encountered a rejection since touching the region and are currently consolidating around US$83,000. Bullish order blocks near the US$80,000 to US$82,000 area are a key near-term demand area that has served as basic support after the breakthrough.
On the upside side, the US$86,000 to US$90,000 area is the immediate supply area. Prices have tested the area but have failed to establish sustained breakthroughs, making it a major obstacle to continued gains.
Despite this, the 4-hour RSI is currently around 50 after recovering from low levels. This suggests that short-term momentum has stabilized rather than overstretched, but has not yet shown a significant bullish shift.
If it can break through US$86,000 strongly, the upper half of the upper supply area will become the focus of attention; if it falls below US$80,000, it will weaken the current short-term structure and increase the possibility of a deeper pullback towards the US$75,000 area.
On-chain analysis
The adjusted SOPR chart shows that Bitcoin's on-chain profitability has improved significantly. The adjusted SOPR measures whether the coins spent are generally profitable or losing, with a value above 1 indicating that profit expenses dominate.
The indicator has recently rebounded above 1.0, with its 30-day exponential moving average currently at around 1.01, and has remained below 1 for most of 2026.
This recovery is consistent with BTC's move from approximately US$60,000 to the current level of US$84,000. As a result, improvements in aSOPR support the view that recent price recovery has been accompanied by improvements in achieved profitability, rather than occurring while indicators continue to deteriorate.
However, the current reading is only slightly above 1. The indicator fell short of the much higher levels seen during previous periods of strong gains. Therefore, on-chain data currently indicates that conditions are improving, but does not in itself confirm that the trend has expanded significantly again. Still, this suggests that market participants are profitable again, which reduces the immediate fear that panic selling will lead to oversupply in the market, triggering further capitulation and collapse.

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