1 billion dollars liquidated! Will last year's crash repeat itself?

Bitcoin falls back to US$80,393, with more than US$1 billion cleared in 24 hours

As Bitcoin prices fall back to US$80,393, the cryptocurrency market has experienced more than US$1 billion cleared in the past 24 hours. Of this, approximately $930 million came from the unwinding of bullish (long) positions. The sell-off comes as the anniversary of the October 10 market crash that led to a $19 billion liquidation last year.

However, there is currently a significant difference between the two events. The scale of this liquidation is only about one-nineteenth of the total liquidation scale last year. Still, Bitcoin's fall to near $80,000 has prompted analysts to discuss the possibility of a new bottom. Currently, the market focus is concentrated in the US$80,000 to US$82,500 range.

Why did Bitcoin fall back from high levels?

Bitcoin once rose to US$87,250 after the September employment data was released, but the rise failed to last. Prices fell more than $3,000 in a few hours, falling below the $84,000 mark. Although Bitcoin returned to US$87,000 at the beginning of the week, it failed to effectively break through that resistance level. Subsequently, it lost approximately US$2,000 in 20 minutes. The first rebound stopped at $84,300, while selling pressure continues to this day, pushing the price lower to $80,393.

Macroeconomic factors have also intensified downward pressure on the market. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting released on October 7 showed that most officials believed that it might be appropriate to raise interest rates further at the end of the year. At the same time, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond remained at around 5.3%, and Brent crude oil prices approached $105.

Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs are also accelerating. According to SoValue, funds divestment reached $487 million, setting a record for the highest one-day outflow since the end of June.

Bitcoin's decline has spread to the altcoin market. Ethereum fell 4.1% to $2,460; market-wide unwinding of leveraged positions further accelerated the selling process. Glassnode's analysis pointed out that the previous round of gains was mainly driven by purchases from existing investors rather than new funds. As inflows from ETFs, stablecoins and corporate treasuries weaken, prices appear more vulnerable to a new round of selling.

Will the $19 billion crash of October 10, 2025 repeat itself?

The market crash on October 10 last year resulted in the liquidation of approximately US$19 billion in positions in the cryptocurrency sector. Bitcoin hit a high of about $126,200 that week, but has since failed to hit that level again.

This year's sell-off also occurred near the anniversary of the date. According to CoinGlass data, the total amount of liquidations in the past 24 hours has exceeded $1 billion, of which approximately $930 million came from long positions. In addition, liquidations are highly concentrated: more than US$600 million of positions were closed in just one hour, which is the largest single long liquidation in the past 90 days and the highest total amount of liquidations in a single hour in a month.

Despite this, the current liquidation amount is not yet close to last year's size. The current liquidation amount is only about one-nineteenth of the previous US$19 billion incident. Therefore, the approaching anniversary date does not in itself herald a new full-blown collapse.

The main risk for the market is that highly leveraged positions may accelerate price declines. If Bitcoin loses key support levels, forced liquidations may increase. However, available data does not suggest a repeat of last year's scale liquidations.

Can Bitcoin hold on to the US$80,000 mark?

Bitcoin's volatility around US$80,000 has caused analysts to split their views on the short-term outlook. After Glassnode's previously pointed out $81,000 buying area was broken through, although prices briefly rebounded above that level, this was not enough to prove that support had been firmly maintained.

Analyst Rekt Capital believes this week's closing price is crucial. He pointed out that if Bitcoin closes below $82,500 and re-establishes that level as resistance, prices could return to a broader consolidation range.

Trader Ted Pillows warned that if the US$81,500 -82,000 range fell, the price could drop further to US$75,000. In contrast, Michaël van de Poppe is more optimistic.

The next key area in front of Bitcoin is around $75,000, as Glassnode points out, due to intensive leveraged transactions. Although the price may not fall to this position, if the US$81,500 -82,000 range is effectively broken below, the downside risk will be significantly amplified.

In the next few days, the market will pay close attention to the weekly closing price, ETF fund flows and the performance of government bond yields. If US$82,500 can be recovered, the possibility of a rebound will be enhanced; if it continues to operate below this level, the potential scenario of US$75,000 will become more prominent.

This article is written based on general market data and does not constitute investment advice. Readers are advised to conduct independent research.