The Ethereum ETF saw its largest outflow of funds since January this week, with its price falling be

Disclaimer: Content does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risks—please invest with caution!

Ethereum Price Forecast: Weighing ETF outflows versus whale buying

Below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), Ethereum's price forecast is bearish. $2,370 is the key support level, and the 100-day average price is around $2,200, which constitutes the next level to watch.

In the week ending October 9, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF experienced an outflow of approximately US$542 million, the largest weekly outflow since the end of January. Among them, BlackRock's ETHA fund accounted for approximately US$477 million in weekly divestments, while the total outflow of U.S. Bitcoin ETF also reached US$681 million.

Although exchange balances increased by 90,000 ETH and futures open interest fell, whale investors reportedly increased their holdings of more than 166,000 ETH in 72 hours. This interweaving of long and short signals has caused traders to pay close attention to the $2,370 support level. If this support level falls, it may expose the US$2,200 region; if it can be held, the market is expected to stabilize. ETF redemptions and rising exchange balances remain major risk factors.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Trend

Ethereum Price Forecast: Weighing ETF Outflows and Whale Buying

数据显示，截至10月9日当周，美国现货以太坊ETF净撤资约为5.42亿美元，创下自1月底以来的最大单周流出纪录。贝莱德的iShares以太坊信托（代码：ETHA）占据了约4.77亿美元的份额，这也是该基金自2025年12月以来最大的单周撤资额。在此期间，比特币ETF也面临压力，共有6.81亿美元资金流出。

这些以太坊ETF的资金流出表明市场参与度降低。虽然这并不意味着所有投资者都在抛售ETH，但在价格下跌期间，它削弱了一个关键的需求来源。如果流出趋势持续，可能会限制价格突破阻力位的尝试。然而，鲸鱼投资者的积累使这一看跌前景变得复杂。

分析师Ali Martinez指出，大型钱包地址在72小时内增持了约1.5万枚BTC和超过16.6万枚ETH，同时也增持了约4,500万枚XRP。鲸鱼余额的增加可能与中小持有者或基金的抛币行为同时发生。对于以太坊价格预测而言，这种分歧至关重要。钱包需求可能会吸收部分供应，但不会迅速逆转ETF资金流出或散户抛售的趋势。交易者需要观察现货买盘的后续动能，以判断这一信号是否具有持续性。

鲸鱼逢低买入

在过去72小时内，鲸鱼投资者累计买入：

近1.5万枚 BTC
超过16.6万枚 ETH
约4,500万枚 XRP

ETF fund flows and on-chain wallet data track different activities. ETF data reflects the flow of funds from listed products, while whale estimates track large on-chain balances. If ETF investors withdraw funds and other holders increase their holdings, these two signals may diverge.

Ethereum price forecasts depend on whether whale buying can continue beyond the 72-hour window. Continued purchases can absorb some supply, but if suspended, ETF redemptions will become a clearer signal of demand.

Exchange inflows and futures deleveraging exacerbate ETH pressure

Exchange data adds caution. CoinGlass data showed that Ethereum's balance on the trading platform on October 8 was 11.71 million ETH, and rose to 11.8 million the next day. The increase of 90,000 ETH pieces hit the highest balance level since September 23. Coins transferred to the exchange may be ready for sale, but the transfer alone does not prove that liquidation has occurred. At the same time, open interest fell from 13.29 million ETH to 12.77 million ETH.

Lower open interest in futures means fewer open positions and possible deleveraging. This can reduce liquidation risks, but it also shows a weakening willingness to go long with leverage. Taken together, the rise in exchange balances and the decline in open interest suggests that traders are reducing exposure as spot supply increases. For Ethereum price forecasts, exchange balances now add another warning.

On the daily chart, Ethereum's Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell to 39, its lowest reading since June. Prices also fell below the 50-day simple moving average. After ETH fell below that level,$2,500 has turned into resistance above.

ETH price forecast depends first on the support level of US$2,370. If the daily line closes below this support level, bearish views will be strengthened and the $2,200 area near the 100th SMA will be brought into view. This price forecast requires continued selling pressure or weak demand to confirm. If the buyer is able to defend the $2,370, ETH may enter a consolidation phase. A recovery in the 50-day moving average will provide a stronger signal to bulls, but as of press time, ETH has not yet recovered that moving average.