ZRO解锁日10月20日触及流通量5.92%：持有还是卖出？

LayerZero's next lock-up period will expire on October 20: The scale exceeds the expectations of the unlocking calendar.

LayerZero's next lock-up period will expire on October 20. Its actual scale is larger than what the unlocking calendar shows: approximately 23.63 million ZRO tokens will become tradable, accounting for 5.92% of the circulating supply. These two parts of the allocation flow to insiders, and the user side has no share. However, if measured by daily transaction volume, this batch of tokens is only equivalent to half a day's transaction volume. As a holder, the decisions you face are trade-off between these two data.

This article has sorted out the key dates for you: the true size of the batch relative to the market, the token recipients, the repurchase strength of the LayerZero Foundation, and the German tax deadline that you need to consider if you want to sell before the date.

LayerZero lockdown content released on October 20

LayerZero is a protocol used to transfer messages and value between different blockchains;ZRO is its token. The total supply limit is 1 billion ZROs, a large part of which is in the allocation state and needs to be gradually unlocked in stages before trading.

Vetting: refers to the allocation amount that has been vested in the recipient but has not been transferred on the contract. In LayerZero, lockups are carried out in monthly installments, each period making more token blocks tradeable.

According to the unlocking calendar, the unlocked volume on October 20 was approximately 23.63 million ZROs; the scheduling report on October 6 gave the same number and split ratio. Data providers vary slightly, ranging from 23.08 million to 23.63 million ZROs based on different data bases, and these providers are not official sources. The exact date and release mechanism are the exact ones, not the third decimal place of the quantity. Therefore, this article uses the upper limit value to avoid underestimating the selling pressure.

accounts for 5.92% of the circulation supply: Why unlock calendars often show too low numbers

Most unlock calendars mark percentages next to each batch. The accuracy of the percentage depends on its denominator, and mistakes often start here. If the calendar divides the batch by the total unlocked amount or outdated data, the percentage will be significantly smaller.

As of October 10, ZRO's circulation supply was 399.2 million units (a total supply of 1 billion units). For the batch of 23.63 million ZRO, the proportion was 5.92%. If you divide it incorrectly by 654 million (a figure that appears in the scheduling overview of such events but is not the circulation supply), the result is only 3.61%, an underestimation of nearly two-thirds.

Three supply concepts are often confused here, resulting in three different results: Circulation supply (tradable and the correct denominator), Unlock supply (no longer locked, but some have not yet entered the market), and Total supply (1 billion here, used as the denominator of the fully diluted valuation). For the calculation method of how to set any token by yourself, please refer to our "ZRO Monthly Dilution Guide" released in August 2026, which also explains the difference between cliff unlocking and linear unlocking.

Core contributors and strategic partners: Who will receive these 23.63 million ZROs?

According to the unlocking overview, the October batch is divided into two parts: approximately 10.63 million ZROs are allocated to core contributors (i.e., core teams and agreement contributors), and 13 million ZROs are allocated to strategic partners (i.e., backers and partners in early financing rounds). This date does not list the user's share of airdrops or distribution plans.

This split is fundamentally different from most unlocking events that flow to many small recipients. Backers and teams hold large single positions, entry prices are well below current levels, and need to meet term obligations to their respective investors. Although it is impossible to judge whether they will sell based on the date alone, compared with 10,000 wallets, it is more likely that two receiving groups will sell in a concentrated manner.

Prices provide background information. ZRO is currently priced at $2.02, down about 73% from the all-time high of $7.47, but has increased by about 92% in the past 30 days and about 15% in the past seven days. As a result, recipients of this batch of coins are facing a strong recovery rather than a trough, and in this environment, the possibility of profit-taking increases.

The key lies in the "basin" of capacity: measured by daily trading volume, the October batch is only equivalent to half a day's trading volume

The percentage of supply in circulation tells you how much new supply is likely to emerge, but it does not tell you whether the market can absorb it. For this, you need a second metric, which is trading volume.

Based on US$2.02, the batch is worth approximately US$47.7 million (approximately 42.5 million euros). ZRO's daily trading volume fluctuates between US$89 million and US$103 million, depending on data sources. Therefore, this batch is equivalent to 0.46 to 0.53 times the average daily trading volume, or about half a day's trading volume. Even if each recipient sells everything immediately, this is still the volume that the market can absorb in half a day.

This criterion distinguishes harmless dates from heavy dates better than any percentage. An unlock that accounts for 2% of the circulating supply could be equivalent to ten days of trading volume on thinly liquid tokens and suppress prices for weeks. An unlock that accounts for 6% of liquid tokens may be digested within two trading days. ZRO belongs to the second category: large percentages and small impact on the market. If you want to evaluate such dates regularly, it will be helpful to see an in-depth overview of the exchanges where the token is located.

The repurchase amount of the LayerZero Foundation only covers one-tenth of the monthly batch.

The repurchase plan is a means of hedging and unlocking. The LayerZero Foundation buys back ZRO on the market, funded by ecosystem income; its official overview lists purchases by month. These data are the clearest indicator of how to compete with unlocking calendars because they come from the entity that performs the purchase.

从 2025 年 9 月到 2026 年 9 月共十三个月的报告显示：累计回购 2,537,790 枚 ZRO，花费 3,680,825 美元。占总供应量的 0.25%。这些数据公开刊登在 LayerZero 基金会的回购概览中。

现在来看解锁日历中从未出现的关键对比：十三个月的所有回购总额仅略低于单月批次的 11%。历史上最强的回购月份是 2025 年 11 月，回购 346,020 枚 ZRO，花费 514,058 美元，仅覆盖 10 月解锁量的 1.5%。最近报告的月份是 2026 年 9 月，回购 162,433 枚 ZRO，花费 351,543 美元，仅覆盖 0.7%。

因此，回购计划并非对解锁的直接对冲，而是一个信号：表明生态系统的收入产生并回流至代币。作为应对 2363 万枚新增可交易代币的缓冲，在此数量级上它并不起作用。任何引用回购的人必须同时陈述这一比率。

此处需加一项限定条件。概览报告截至 2026 年 9 月。10 月的数据尚无线索，本月回购多少取决于当月收入。基金会列出 Stargate 为其唯一的活跃收入来源，即我们在 8 月描述 LayerZero 关闭 15 条链时提到的桥接服务。

费用开关已四次被否决，这使得回购规模保持较小

有一个杠杆可以大幅增加回购，但从未被使用过。费用开关是指是否对协议传输的每条消息收取费用的投票。如果该费用产生，根据基金会自己的描述，它将被兑换成 ZRO 并销毁，永久性地缩小供应量。

LayerZero 基金会的治理页面列出了四次完成的投票，分别在 12 月和 6 月：2024 年 12 月、2025 年 6 月、2025 年 12 月和最近的 2026 年 6 月。所有四次投票结果相同，即不收取费用。因此，协议杠杆仍处于关闭状态，回购仍绑定于单个应用程序的收入。

对持有者而言，这意味着每月解锁在纸面上存在结构性对冲效应，但该效应在四次投票中均未获得多数支持。押注于此意味着押注一个结果重复四次的投票。页面上没有关于下一轮投票的公告。

解锁不等于卖出指令

围绕解锁日期最常见的谬误是直接从未解锁金额推断抛售压力。解锁意味着可转移。这并不意味着接收者会卖出，也不意味着他们会立即卖出，更不意味着他们会在当天的价格卖出。

In practice, large recipients spread sales over several weeks, sell them to individual buyers in over-the-counter transactions, or hedge them through futures before the token becomes tradable. The second option explains why price pressure around large batches tends to occur before the date rather than the day: Anyone who wants to hedge will do so while prices are still strong. Therefore, also pay attention to the situation in the days leading up to October 20. If you are following the derivatives market, please check the funding rates for perpetual contracts.

What ZRO batches are there after October 20?

October 20 is not a one-time event, but an issue in the series. Allocation of core teams and backers continues to be phased monthly after the initial lock-up period, and the unlock calendar lists batches that extend further into 2027. Since the stages are from the same distribution pool, the orders of magnitude for each batch remain similar.

This led to a dispassionate expectation that as long as the series continued, supply blocks equivalent to half a day's trading volume would be added every month. This is not a disaster and there is no reason to panic, but it is a permanent headwind that any price expectation must factor in. Conversely, as trading volume grows, the headwinds shrink: if daily trading volume doubles, the weight of the same batch halves.

Sell before date: One-year holding period under German tax law

For German investors, decisions before the unlock date have a second side that has nothing to do with price. According to Article 23 of the German Income Tax Code (EStG), the proceeds from the sale of cryptocurrency assets are private disposal. If you sell it within one year of buying it, the proceeds are subject to personal income tax rate. If purchased for more than one year, the proceeds are exempt from tax.

This period is calculated per acquisition, not per token, and is determined by your purchase date, not LayerZero's unlock date. Specifically: Anyone who bought ZRO during the rally in recent weeks will face taxable income if they sell before October 20. Given that prices have risen by about 92% in the past 30 days, taxes may even exceed the difference between the two sell dates. Tax exemption applies to small amounts of income; once exceeded, all income will be subject to tax. The specific applicable amount and deadline depend on your tax return status. In order to record purchase data, it is recommended to refer to our cryptographic tax software comparison tool.

People who converted STG to ZRO hold precisely this token

There is a group of readers who are directly affected by this date but have never bought ZRO: those who converted STG to ZRO during the Stargate and LayerZero merger. The person who did this today holds the same token that insiders unlocked in batches on October 20. See the article "Converting STG to ZRO" for the specific deadline, fixed exchange rate and terms of the conversion.

对于这一群体，税务状况值得特别审查，因为兑换本身可能被视为处置行为，从而开启新的期限。适用于第 23 条的购买日期可能不再是原始的 STG 购买日期，而是兑换时刻。

我们的评估：百分比令人恐惧，但市场影响有限

在编辑部的观点看来，10 月批次是典型的大标题数字掩盖小市场影响的案例。证据如上：占流通供应量 5.92% 听起来很沉重，但实际上相当于 0.46 至 0.53 倍的日均交易量，即使完全清仓也会在半天内执行完毕。我们同样直白地指出反对因素：该批次 exclusively 流向持有大额单一头寸的两个内部群体；价格在 30 天上涨约 92% 后，处于适合获利了结的区域；回购计划（十三个月累计仅覆盖单月批次的 11%）不起对冲作用；可能改变这一局面的结构杠杆已被否决四次。

因此，我们的结论不是关于价格的声明，而是关于方法论：按流通供应量百分比排序解锁日期是错误的做法。衡量标准应是相对于每日交易量的比率。按此标准，ZRO 的 10 月 20 日只是长期系列中的一个中等规模日期。任何加密货币资产都可能归零，解锁可能会放大在其他原因导致的弱势市场中的下行走势。

ZRO 解锁：2360 万枚代币对阵 250 万枚回购

The dates have been released, and both sides point in the same direction: a lot of new supply, a little hedging, but the market can absorb these volumes in half a day. Translate this into three steps in your own decision-making:

Establish your own metrics.
The dollar-denominated batches are divided by daily transaction volume rather than by the supply in circulation. Less than a day's trading volume is manageable; more than five times becomes a problem. Tools for an overview of volume and scheduling are listed in our comparison of crypto analysis platforms.

Check your purchase date before checking the price.
If your acquisition is less than a year old, selling will generate income tax. The most convenient way to seamlessly record the purchase date and amount is by using one of our crypto tax tools.

Decide on how to custody, not just sell.
If you plan to hold through the entire unlock series, there is no need to leave the tokens on the exchange. See our hardware wallet comparison for suitable equipment.

(As of October 10, 2026. This article does not constitute investment advice. Price and fee structures are subject to change; please check terms with your provider before purchasing.)