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ETH Ethereum fell below the 50-day moving average, and prices fell under pressure.
On October 10, Ethereum faced renewed pressure and its price fell below the 50-day simple moving average, trading at approximately US$2,491. In the past seven days, the value of Ethereum (ETH) has fallen by more than 7%, and trading volume has dropped sharply to US$7.2 billion, down 61% from previous levels.
ETF fund outflows hit new high since January this year.
According to SoValue data, in the week ending October 9, U.S. spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) showed net redemption, totaling US$542 million. This is the largest single-week withdrawal since January this year. The iShares Ethereum Trust Fund (ETHA) managed by asset management giant BlackRock recorded outflows of approximately $477 million, setting its highest weekly redemption record since the fund was established in December 2025. During the same period, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF also came under significant pressure, with outflows reaching US$681 million.
Outflows from these ETFs indicate that some institutional investors are reducing their exposure to Ethereum through listed products. Although not all investors are directly selling Ethereum itself, this continued trend of divestment has weakened a key source of demand against the backdrop of a broader market decline. This trend may limit Ethereum's efforts to break through resistance and rebound in the short term.
Game between whale buyers and institutional sellers
虽然ETF记录了大量资金流出，但市场分析师观察到大型投资者——通常被称为“鲸鱼”——正在买入。知名加密货币分析师Ali Martinez估计，在短短72小时内，大型持有者累计购入约166,000枚ETH和15,000枚BTC，以及约4,500万枚XRP。
鲸鱼持仓量的同步上升为以太坊的前景增添了复杂的动态。虽然这些大额钱包可能在吸收市场供给，但如果ETF流出和散户抛售继续压倒鲸鱼的买盘兴趣，整体市场影响仍具有不确定性。
交易所流入增加与期货数据引发谨慎情绪
进一步的风险信号来自交易平台CoinGlass的数据：以太坊在交易所的余额增加，从10月8日的1,171万ETH上升至次日的1,180万ETH，增幅为90,000 ETH。这一数字代表了自9月下旬以来的最高交易所持仓量。通常情况下，交易所余额的增加意味着投资者准备出售资产的意愿增强，尽管并非所有转入交易所的代币都会立即被清算。
与此同时，以太坊期货未平仓合约数量从1,329万ETH下降至1,277万ETH，显示出杠杆头寸的减少。较低的未平仓合约可以缓解部分清算压力，但也反映出交易者更为谨慎的态度，对新风险的偏好降低。交易所流入增加与期货仓位降低相结合，表明随着现货供应的扩张，许多市场参与者正在缩减敞口。
技术面分析与未来展望
从技术角度来看，以太币跌破了其50日简单移动平均线，并在2,500美元处遇到新的阻力位。日线相对强弱指数（RSI）降至39，为6月份以来的最低水平。下一个主要支撑位设在2,370美元，若跌破该位置，可能进一步下探至接近2,200美元的100日均价附近。若要实现看涨反转，以太币必须重新站稳2,500美元及50日SMA之上。
市场观察人士指出，ETF数据和链上鲸鱼活动的信号可能出现背离，这反映了不同类型的参与者行为。ETF流量监控的是通过受监管产品进行的机构活动，而鲸鱼追踪则关注大型链上动向。如果大型投资者的持续需求能够超越短期的交易窗口期，或许可以抵消抛压，但这取决于该趋势能否持续。
Looking forward, traders will be watching closely whether whales continue to accumulate chips or whether ETF investors will withdraw further. If ETF outflows continue and selling pressure increases, Ethereum may continue to face downside risks; conversely, if demand stabilizes and prices return to above key technical levels, it is expected to stabilize price movements in the near term.
