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BTC “十月行情”与历史性的教训
在加密货币市场中，十月一直享有坚实的声誉，被称为“Uptober”（上涨的十月）——一个历史上往往带来重大收益的绿色月份。去年的这一时期尤为具有历史性意义：一方面，比特币（BTC）飙升至约 126,000 美元的最新历史新高；另一方面，它也经历了有史以来最严重的清算事件。本周末标志着后者的周年纪念日。
值得铭记的一天
在 10 月 10 日之前的几天里，BTC 一路强劲攀升，赢得了“Uptober”的称号。最新的纪录出现在 10 月 7 日，价格略高于 126,000 美元。分析师和长期看多者迅速称赞这一走势，并指出年底前可能达到 200,000 美元甚至 500,000 美元的下一个巨大目标。
然而现实截然不同，且更加痛苦。2025 年 10 月 10 日，由于包括中美贸易紧张局势升级在内的多种因素，引发了剧烈的抛售潮，而庞大的杠杆头寸进一步加剧了这一趋势。据多数估计，在 24 小时内被摧毁的头寸总价值超过 190 亿美元。这在当时是加密货币行业 16 年历史上最糟糕的一天。
Bitcoin led the decline, plunging from $122,000 to $105,000 on most exchanges, and even falling to $101,000 on a few exchanges. More than 1.6 million traders were caught off guard and were liquidated. The timing of the crash was particularly brutal: Just 48-72 hours earlier, BTC had just hit a new high of more than $126,000 (and the highest record at the time). Today, a year later, that price point sounds like a mirage.
Difficult recovery in different markets
That crash opened a long bear market that, at least for now, ended with prices falling below $58,000 on July 1. In other words, Bitcoin plunged 53% in a few months after the worst liquidation event on record. It is currently in the $82,000 -83,000 range, still about 34% below its 2025 high.
While things look much better now than in July, there are still some warning signs, such as the correction experienced in the past week: BTC fell from $87,000 to $80,400 before bouncing back to current levels. On the positive side, at least five indicators tracked by BIT have entered areas related to bullish markets.
But the events of October 10, 2025 must be remembered. Hopefully, it will teach some traders a lesson: they tend to put their full position when the market is performing well, and vice versa. I wish I could say that people did learn lessons, but last week's pullback proved the opposite: in less than a day, more than $1 billion in leveraged positions were erased.
