Title: If you invested $10,000 in Bitcoin and gold when the U.S. -Iran war broke out: Here are the r

Asset performance under the U.S. -Iran conflict: An unexpected comparison between Bitcoin and gold

Tensions between the United States and Iran have brought severe tests to Bitcoin and gold, which are often seen as alternative assets in times of uncertainty. Shipping interruptions, energy supply pressures and stalled negotiations make this comparison beyond conventional price games and have deeper significance.

A post posted on the social media account Fthegus (@ fthegus) quantified the comparison into specific dollar figures. The account calculates the final return of US$10,000 invested in Bitcoin, gold, silver and major stock indexes in the early days of the U.S. -Iran conflict. The results challenge the common assumption that conflicts are bound to benefit precious metals and undermine risky assets.

Bitcoin achieved significant appreciation in comparison

Fthegus data shows that Bitcoin's return on investment was 28%, increasing from the initial US$10,000 to US$12,800, with a profit of US$2,800. This performance puts it first among all listed assets, surpassing the two stock market benchmarks of the Nasdaq (20% return) and the S & P 500 (13% return).

However, the price results of Bitcoin need to be interpreted with caution. Achieving positive returns during this period does not directly prove that the war caused price increases. Prices may be affected by multiple forces at the same time, including liquidity, interest rate expectations, changes in demand, and market position adjustments.

If an investor invested US$10,000 at the beginning of the U.S. -Iran conflict, its assets would behave as follows:

• S & P 500: US$11,300 (+13%)
• Nasdaq: US$12,000 (+20%)
• Bitcoin: US$12,800 (+28%)
• Gold: US$7,830 (-22%)
• Silver: US$6,440 (-36%)

Fthegus said in a post: "A year ago, if someone had told me that war would be good for stocks and Bitcoin, but bad for gold and silver, I would have thought he was crazy."

In addition, this comparison does not reflect the volatile experience during the investment process. Bitcoin may have fallen during the period before recovering, but the post did not provide charts or price history to confirm this path. The key difference is the difference between the end result and the process. Just because the endpoint is worth $12,800 does not mean Bitcoin will always provide protection when military tensions escalate.

Gold retracts significantly

In Fthegus comparisons, gold gives the opposite result. The initial US$10,000 shrank to US$7,830, resulting in a loss of US$2,170. The post described the decline as 22%, although it was actually about 21.7% in dollar terms, and the data may be rounded.

This is the most eye-catching contrast between Bitcoin and gold: Bitcoin ends up above the starting value, while gold is below the starting value, with a value difference of US$4,970 in the final combination.

Gold's reputation as a defensive asset may make this outcome seem unexpected. However, reputation does not guarantee positive returns in any conflict or in any investment window. The starting price is no less important than the asset's reputation. If you buy after a strong rally, assets can depreciate even if the macro environment is full of uncertainty. Factors such as interest rates, currency movements and demand can also affect gold prices, although the post did not clearly identify the specific factors that led to this particular decline.

The performance of stocks and silver broadens the perspective of comparison

The rest of the data shows that reported deviations are not limited to Bitcoin and gold. Silver recorded the largest loss in this comparison, with a final value of US$6,440, a drop of approximately 35.6%, close to the 36% quoted in the post. Fthegus expressed surprise that stocks and bitcoin rose while gold and silver fell during the war. This observation captures the contrast, but these data alone are not enough to determine whether the war itself is good or bad for various assets.

Asset Class Initial Investment Report Final Value Report Return Rate Profit and Loss Amount Bitcoin $10,000 $12,800 +28% +$2,800 Gold $10,000 $7,830 About-22% -$2,170 S & P 500 $10,000 $11,300 +13% +$1,300 Nasdaq $10,000 $12,000 +20% +$2,000 Silver $10,000 $6,440 About-36% -$3,560

Shipping interruptions and negotiations remain key factors affecting subsequent prices

Background information shows that shipping, energy supply and diplomatic negotiations are under pressure. Damage to military facilities does not automatically mean that these issues have been resolved. Further shipping disruptions could increase transportation and insurance costs; continued energy pressures could also complicate the economic outlook. Although the agreement reached can relieve some of the pressure, the market still needs to evaluate other developments.

Therefore, this comparison leaves several open questions:

• The post did not specify an exact starting price or valuation date.
• The data does not state whether stock returns include dividends.
• Calculation does not explain fees, taxes or investment instruments.

These details are crucial to those trying to recreate the results.

常见问题解答 (FAQs)

到 2030 年，1 枚比特币的价值是多少？

虽然比特币的未来价格本质上不可预测，但金融机构和加密货币专家预测，到 2030 年，1 枚比特币的价值可能在 150,000 美元至 150 万美元之间。保守的机构共识和基础案例分析模型通常设定的目标区间在 160,000 美元至 300,000 美元之间，而极度乐观的行业领袖则预计会出现七位数的估值。

比特币能在 2026 年达到 20 万美元吗？

大多数分析师和市场数据表明，比特币在 2026 年达到 20 万美元的可能性不大。目前交易价格徘徊在 82,600 美元左右，主要预测指向较低的范围或较晚的周期峰值。