Understand the hottest Web3 track in recent times from a \"bet in advance\" transaction: Forecas

After many major events in 2025 were \"priced by the market before the news\", the prediction market has quickly become one of the most watched tracks for Web3. On-chain data shows that some seemingly small advance bets often complete the pricing of risks and information before the results are implemented, and bring rewards to participants far beyond traditional markets. From political trends to macroeconomics, to changes in asset prices, real funds are using prices to express judgments. Through a \"bet in advance\" deal, we may be able to see why predicting the market will become the hottest Web3 narrative in 2025.

1. Introduction

At the beginning of January, Beijing time, overseas social platforms and many crypto communities circulated news: the U.S. government has taken tough action against the situation in Venezuela, and relevant developments have attracted great attention from the international community. At almost the same time, a transaction record that occurred on a decentralized forecasting platform was quickly amplified and discussed by the market.

Data shows that in just four days from December 27, 2025, an account on the prediction market platform Polymarket has invested a total of approximately US$32,537, continuing to bet that \"Venezuelan President Maduro will step down before January 31.\" It is worth noting that the account established large positions in a concentrated manner within hours before the relevant news was widely discussed.

At that time, the market\'s overall pricing for the probability of related events was not high, at about 6%. As the situation changed and the release of the U.S. official statement, the price of the positions held in the account rose rapidly, and finally achieved a book gain of more than 400,000 US dollars, with a return rate of more than ten times at one time.

Whether this transaction involves inside information remains to be further investigated by regulators and platforms. But it is enough to raise the question-what is this frequently mentioned Polymarket? Why will the forecast market become popular quickly in 2025?

2. What is a forecast market? Why it can \"gather collective wisdom\"

The Prediction Market is essentially a mechanism for aggregating decentralized information through financial incentives.

In the prediction market, participants need to trade the outcome of an event with real money. When different judgments continue to play games in the market, prices will gradually converge to a level that reflects the \"collective judgment probability\". This mechanism allows the forecast market to be closer to the true results in certain scenarios than traditional questionnaires or subjective judgments.

This advantage will be fully demonstrated during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The forecasting market platform represented by Polymarket is significantly ahead of traditional polling agencies in judging the probability of election results at multiple key time points. After the final result was implemented, the accuracy of its prediction was also verified afterwards.

As credibility continues to accumulate, the forecast market begins to be cited more widely:

● Mainstream financial media (such as Bloomberg) directly quote its odds data in reports;

● Search engines and AI Q & A products (such as Perplexity) display predicted market results as reference information;

● The prediction market is gradually moving from an \"internal tool in the crypto community\" to a source of public information.

In terms of market size, the industry growth is also significant. Several research institutions predict that:

● The total market transaction volume in 2025 is expected to increase from approximately US$900 million in 2024 to US$40 billion;

● The user scale is expected to increase from approximately 4 million to 15 million;

At the capital level, the forecast market is also highly recognized. In 2025, the two platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, have attracted a total of more than US$3.15 billion in funds, occupying an absolute dominant position in the industry. In October 2025, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, announced a strategic investment in Polymarket, and the relevant valuation was pushed to the US$8 - 9 billion range. At the same time, Kalshi has also completed multiple rounds of large-scale financing, with investors including a number of global leading institutions.

With multiple factors combined, the forecast market is widely regarded as one of the most representative Web3 tracks in 2025.

3. Prediction market ≠ gambling: The essential difference between the two mechanisms

As the popularity of the prediction market increases, a common controversy has also emerged: Is the prediction market just a \"gambling with a changed shell\"?

From the perspective of the underlying mechanism, there are fundamental differences between the two.

1. Different price formation mechanisms

The forecast market adopts market-based pricing logic. Prices are formed by games between buyers and sellers in the public order book. All transaction data can be audited. The platform itself does not set probabilities and does not bear outcome risks. It only charges transaction fees.

Gaming platforms set odds by the platform, with internal calculation logic invisible, and ensure long-term profits through \"dealer advantage\". The goal of adjusting odds is not to discover true probabilities, but to control platform risks.

2. Differences in functions and uses

Forecasting the price generated by the market is essentially a data product that can be used externally and can be used for macro event judgment, policy expectation analysis, corporate risk management and other scenarios, and may even adversely affect media narratives and decision-making references.

Gambling behavior mainly belongs to entertainment consumption, and its odds do not have spillover value, nor does it assume the function of information discovery.

3. Differences in participant structure

Predicted that market liquidity comes from information-driven participants, including researchers, macro traders, data analysts, institutional users, etc. The core goal is to use information differences for arbitrage and price discovery.

The liquidity of the gaming market mainly comes from ordinary consumers, which is more easily driven by emotions and preferences, and does not focus on information accuracy.

For this reason, forecasting markets are often viewed as \"information liquidity markets,\" rather than as recreational gambling in the traditional sense. [TAG

IV. Why is the forecast market concentrated in 2025?

Forecasting the market is not a new concept, but its theoretical foundation dates back to the last century. However, truly achieving large-scale growth is inseparable from the maturity of multiple external conditions in 2025.

First of all, it is a key breakthrough at the regulatory level. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has gradually clarified its compliance positioning for the forecast market, making it clear that it belongs to the category of commodity derivatives, not gambling. This change allows the forecast market to be distributed across a wider range of channels. After compliance, the forecast market coverage in the United States will even exceed some traditional gaming businesses, reaching 50 states across the United States.

Secondly, there is the restoration of institutional confidence and capital entry. After the compliance boundaries were clarified, the financing path of the forecast market platform was rapidly broadened, and multiple rounds of large-amount financing provided support for product experience, liquidity and risk control systems.

Once again, it is an expansion of the event category. From macro political events, it gradually extends to economic data, encryption industry events, and even sports events, making the application scenarios of predicting the market more diverse.

Finally, there is maturity at the technical level. On-chain settlement, automated market making, and the application of AI tools in information analysis and transaction assistance have jointly lowered the threshold for participation and use.

These factors work together to make 2025 the year when the forecast market truly \"goes out of the loop\".

5. Risks and Boundaries: A Rational View of the Forecasting Market

It should be emphasized that forecasting the market is not without controversy. The case of \"opening positions in advance\" mentioned at the beginning of the article also reflects that inside information, anti-manipulation and compliance enforcement are still issues that need continuous improvement in this field.

At the same time, it needs to be clear that mainland China has a clear attitude towards related predictions and disguised gambling, and ordinary users should not participate in any activities that do not comply with local laws and regulations.

However, from the perspective of research and industry observation, the prediction market, as an information aggregation and probability expression tool, still has value worthy of attention and learning at the institutional, technological and product design levels.

For the Web3 industry, it provides a new direction: not just around \"asset speculation,\" but around information, decisions and real-world events to build a data infrastructure that can be used by real society. This may be the real reason why the forecast market is widely discussed in 2025.