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BTC Logical transformation of the Bitcoin cycle: The halving effect is weakened, and liquidity dominates the key.
Due to the inherent characteristics of blockchain, Bitcoin has long been regarded as a four-year cycle driven by a "halving" event. This halving mechanism usually occurs every four years. However, in the past year or so, this regular pattern has been broken. Well-known online analyst Willy Woo takes a similar perspective in his latest views.
Wu suggested that Bitcoin may be gradually transitioning to a six to eight year cycle and is increasingly subject to the same debt and liquidity conditions as traditional financial markets.
From "half driven" to "liquidity driven"?
Wu's reasoning begins with the weakening of the impact of cryptocurrency supply. After the most recent halving in April 2024, the number of newly issued BTC dropped to approximately 0.8% of existing supply per year. The next halving is expected to take place in early 2028, when the proportion will be further reduced to about 0.4%.
Wu believes that as new mining supply becomes increasingly insignificant relative to the existing market share, the control of "halving" over the broader price cycle of Bitcoin is weakening. Instead, the asset's price movement may more closely follow the six to eight year short-term debt cycle of traditional financial markets.
For most of Bitcoin's history, the halving framework has performed quite effectively. Today, however, the market structure has changed dramatically, thanks in large part to the emergence of the US spot Bitcoin ETF. Current data shows that these financial products hold nearly 1.3 million BTC, accounting for more than 6% of the circulating supply. The total number of bitcoins owned by listed companies that currently hold at least 1,000 BTC has exceeded 1 million.
Taken together, Bitcoin controlled by ETFs and the treasury of these companies accounts for almost 12% of the total circulation, far exceeding the current annual output of miners.
Others who support the "four-year cycle is dead" narrative include Arthur Hayes, who claimed in 2025 that traders were paying too much attention to it; and Fidelity Digital Assets. In a report last year, analysts questioned whether Bitcoin's mature market would produce a more moderate upswing and correction than the sharp boom-and-bust cycle of the past.
Not everyone is convinced
Galaxy Research also looked at the same issue in June this year, but came to a different conclusion-Bitcoin's four-year cycle is still visible in the data. Researchers pointed out that Bitcoin peaked again in October 2025, about 18 months away from the halving in April 2024, which is within the historical window.
The difference is that the extremes of each cycle are decreasing. Bitcoin's previous bear markets resulted in retracements of about 85%, 84%, and 77%, while the decline to July lows was relatively modest, at just over 53%.
