Zcash prices surged 13% again-what could disrupt this rally?

Core Points

Prices fell back after hitting US$1,220.

US$1,200 remains the current direct resistance area.

If it falls below US$1,000, it will weaken the breakthrough trend.

U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on September 11.

Zcash broke through US$1,000 and hit US$1,220

According to the ZEC/USD daily chart on the Coinbase platform, as of 12:50 UTC time on September 6, Zcash's trading price was approximately US$1,165, an intraday increase of 13.8%. The opening price of the day was US$1,025, with an intraday low of US$1,023 and a high of US$1,220, with a intraday fluctuation of about 19%.

At the time of the screenshot, the price had retreated by about 4.3% from its high, indicating selling pressure above $1,200. Since the daily candle chart has not yet closed, neither the rejection signal near US$1,220 nor the trend breaking through US$1,200 have been finally confirmed.

The rise follows a gain of about 16% recorded on September 3. At the time, Zcash was still near the resistance level of $952 and the psychological level of $1,000, as noted in previous analysis of Zcash's gains. At present, these two key levels have been exceeded.

US$1,000 became the main support test point

The high of the day established a direct resistance zone between US$1,200 and US$1,220. If the intraday price crosses the region but reverses before the daily close, it indicates that there is insufficient upward momentum; if it can close at a price higher than the region and successfully backtest, it shows that demand continues throughout the trading day.

The three-month chart shown shows that there is no near-term resistance above $1,220, so it cannot provide an accurate next price target. A more useful reference point is the support level below current prices.

Key price after Zcash breakthrough

• US$1,200 -1,220: Direct resistance from the latest intraday high.
• US$1,025 -1,000: The first support area covers the daily opening range and previous resistance levels.
• US$950 -930: If ZEC cannot maintain above US$1,000, this area is the previous breakthrough stage.
• US$850 -800: Deeper bottoms formed during the consolidation period before the latest gains.

At $1,165, Zcash's price is about 87% above its 50-day simple moving average ($625). The 100-day and 200-day moving averages are even lower, at about $547 and $449 respectively. These moving averages describe long-term trends, but are too far from the market to identify short-term support. The recently traded range of $930 to $1,025 provides more information on where buyers have previously entered.

Return to the U.S. Market after the market closed

The rally occurred over the weekend, just before the U.S. Labor Day holiday. The New York Stock Exchange calendar shows that U.S. stocks will be closed on Monday, September 7.

Cryptocurrency markets will continue to trade, but U.S. stock markets and exchange-traded crypto products will not resume providing the usual signal of market linkage until Tuesday. This trading session will show whether ZEC can maintain its relative strength as U.S. cash market trading resumes.

The direction of Bitcoin is equally relevant. In a broader crypto market correction, if Bitcoin can remain above $1,000, it will enhance ZEC's performance relative to the market. If it falls below US$1,000 at the same time, it indicates that ZEC has failed to withstand the retreat of the entire market.

Inflation data released before Federal Reserve meeting

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics calendar schedules the August producer price index (PPI) to be released on September 10, and the consumer price index (CPI) to be released on September 11. The CPI will be the last major consumer inflation reading before the Federal Reserve meets on September 15 - 16.

If the data is higher than expected, it could push up market speculation about interest rate expectations and U.S. Treasury yields, an environment that could reduce demand for speculative assets. Recent examples are Bitcoin falling below $80,000 and Ethereum falling below $2,500 after the strong jobs report, and the market reassessed the possibility of the Federal Reserve tightening policy.

This reaction suggests that macroeconomic surprises may interrupt the upward trend of cryptocurrencies, but this does not mean that CPI will produce the same results. The milder inflation data could relieve pressure on yield and interest rate expectations, while another upside surprise could drag down the market as Zcash attempts to build support above $1,000.

The Federal Reserve calendar marks the September meeting as one that accompanies updates economic forecasts. As a result, markets will receive policy decisions and policymakers 'latest forecasts for growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.

Futures positions expand as prices rise

At the time of writing, data showed that ZEC's 24-hour futures trading volume was approximately US$7.68 billion, and spot trading volume was approximately US$755 million. Futures turnover is about 10 times higher than spot activity.

The size of open interest was close to US$2.73 billion, compared with US$2.15 billion at the time of the September 4 analysis (when Zcash was still approaching US$1,000). This represents an increase of about 25%, although the data is rolling in real time, so it should not be interpreted as an exact two-day inflow.

The combination of approximately US$2.78 billion in open interest and futures changes that exceed ten times spot trading volume has increased the importance of monitoring clearing. This does not predict the next step, but suggests that the leveraged market is much more active than the underlying spot market.

Daily close will be clear

If a close above US$1,200, it will show that ZEC has broken through the resistance encountered by intraday highs. A break below $1,000 would weaken the breakthrough trend and redirect attention back to the $950 -930 area. A high of $1,220 remains tentative until the end of the trading session.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.