Bitcoin News Today: Why Bitcoin fell, BTC price plummeted to around $76,000

Bitcoin fell 1.74% on Thursday, with inflation data and interest rate hikes being the main reasons for the market downturn.

On Thursday, Bitcoin prices fell 1.74% and were trading close to US$77,124.70. Many investors are asking: Why did the cryptocurrency market fall today? The short answer is: strong inflation data and the rising probability of a Fed rate hike. This article will sort out relevant data, analyze chart trends, and discuss possible market trends in the future.

The final demand producer price index (PPI) rose 0.4% month-on-month in August, in line with market expectations. However, on a year-on-year basis, the PPI inflation rate jumped sharply to 5.4% from 4.8% in July. The report usually sets the tone for the capital's consumer price index (CPI) to be released on Friday, and the CPI data is expected to determine Bitcoin's next major trend.

Why did Bitcoin prices fall today?

This is the most concerned issue in current Bitcoin news, and the main reasons can be boiled down to the following three points:

1. Strong inflation data

Bitcoin prices fell after the PPI report showed higher than expected data. Rising inflation increases the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, which often have a negative impact on risky assets such as cryptocurrencies. This is one of the main reasons why Bitcoin continues to weaken this week.

1. Weak spot demand

Spot demand for Bitcoin has dropped to levels close to $70,000, a warning sign for BTC price movements. If real buyers cannot re-enter, downward pressure on the crypto market may intensify further.

1. ETF Fund Outflows

On September 10, the Bitcoin Spot ETF recorded a net outflow of US$283 million, with capital outflows for three consecutive days. This shows that institutional investors are currently adopting a wait-and-see or retreat attitude, which also explains why the entire crypto market is generally under pressure today.

Why did cryptocurrencies and the overall market fall today?

It's not just Bitcoin that is affected. When Bitcoin falls due to inflation concerns, most cryptocurrency markets tend to follow suit because Bitcoin still dominates overall risk sentiment.

Since this week, market expectations for interest rate hikes have rapidly heated up, causing widespread shocks to various risky assets from cryptocurrencies to stocks. Traders chose to cut exposure ahead of Friday's CPI data rather than wait for the data to come out before making a decision.

Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in September 2026?

Currently, market pricing shows a 69.6% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 16 meeting. This will increase the target interest rate range from 350 - 375 basis points to 375 - 400 basis points.

A week ago, this probability was only 59.4%; a month ago it was as low as 48.4%. The rapid rise in interest rate hike expectations is an important factor in Bitcoin's recent decline. The specific probability changes are shown in the following table:

The probability of a time period interest rate hike is currently 69.6% 1 day ago 61.2% 1 week ago 59.4% 1 month ago 48.4% interest rate hike will increase borrowing costs and may lead to more funds flowing from cryptocurrencies to safer assets such as bonds.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: What Does the Chart Show?

The 4-hour chart of Bitcoin/U.S. dollar (BTC/USD) shows that a "top of the arc" pattern is forming, and prices are currently testing the lower edge of the rising channel, i.e. the US$76,000 to US$76,500 range. This level is critical for short-term Bitcoin price forecasts.

• If support holds: A rebound above $77,500 - 78,000 may open up space to $78,400 - 79,400. Above that,$80,000 - 82,000 will become the next major resistance area.
• If the support level falls below: The confirmation of the 4-hour closing price below US$76,000 will mark a break in the channel. Based on channel height calculations, the downside target points to approximately US$70,000. The "dome top" pattern also projects a similar $70,000 target, consistent with market concerns about a deeper plunge.

Type Price Range/Conditional Support $76,000 - 76,500 Break Confirmed 4 hours Close Below $76,000 Downward Target About $70,000 Rebound Resistance 178,400 - 79,400 Rebound Resistance 280,000 - 82,000 Bullish Inevitability Continue to close above $82,000 The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is at 37.35, Close to oversold areas but not yet fully entered. This shows that the seller is still in control of the situation, but the possibility of a rebound still exists.

Is this a crypto market crash or a normal correction?

Not every decline is a crash. Prices fell from the $82,000 region to about $77,000, a routine correction by crypto market standards rather than a full-blown market meltdown.

That being said, if a break below US$76,000 is confirmed, the probability of a significant move towards US$70,000 will increase. Traders paying close attention to real crash signals should focus on the key level of $76,000 rather than daily percentage swings.

Bitcoin clearing and market sentiment today

Leveraged traders have been hit hard. According to CoinGlass data, more than 94,000 traders have been liquidated in the past 24 hours, totaling $449.82 million. Among them, long positions suffered even greater losses: during the same period, the long liquidation amount was US$111.71 million, while short positions were only US$9.3 million. This suggests that traders betting on a rise in Bitcoin prices were caught off guard by the fall.

Despite this, the overall long-short ratio is still 0.9175, which is in a relatively balanced state. But on major exchanges such as Binance and OKX, top traders have a long and short ratio of more than 1.5, favoring the bulls. That could mean large investors are expecting a rebound, even as retail traders are being squeezed out of the market.

24-hour futures trading volume reached US$59.45 billion, and open interest was US$53.25 billion. Options trading volume rose 13.57% month-on-month to US$4.03 billion, indicating that traders are actively hedging or positioning positions ahead of Friday's CPI data release.

Indicator value 24-hour clearing amount US$449.82 million Number of cleared traders 94, 353-person long clearing amount US$111.71 million short clearing amount US$9.3 million long short ratio 0.917524 hours futures volume US$59.45 billion open interest US$53.25 billion options trading volume US$4.03 billion (+13.57%) Factors that may push Bitcoin prices this week

CPI data will be released on Friday, which may be the biggest catalyst for Bitcoin prices this week. Historical data shows that the past three CPI releases have caused violent fluctuations in Bitcoin prices, with one of them fluctuating by more than 30% in a single month.

If the CPI data is lower than expected, it may allay concerns about interest rate hikes and provide Bitcoin with the opportunity to recover to $78,000 and above. Conversely, if the data is strong, it may confirm a break scenario, pushing Bitcoin to move towards the US$70,000 region, thereby continuing the current market pessimism.

Currently,$76,000 is a critical watershed. Anyone who follows why Bitcoin has fallen should watch how prices react at this position over the next 24 to 48 hours, as it is likely to set the tone for the broader crypto market.

Disclaimer : This article is for reference only and does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice. The cryptocurrency market has high volatility and significant risks. Be sure to research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making an investment decision. Past performance does not guarantee future results.