Brian Armstrong insists on his $400,000 Bitcoin target

Coinbase CEO: Bitcoin hitting $400,000 in 2030 is still a reasonable target

Summary of core views

·Brian Armstrong believes that reaching $40 in Bitcoin by 2030 is a realistic goal.

·Based on current levels, Bitcoin needs to rise by more than 400% to achieve this goal.

· Coinbase CEO believes Bitcoin has passed the bottom of the cycle.

·The 2028 halving cycle and the U.S. regulatory environment may support this scenario.

·Bitcoin must first continue to break through the key resistance level of US$81,500 before hitting its previous record.

Expected growth of more than 400% to 2030

In an interview with CNBC on September 10, Brian Armstrong reiterated his prediction. When asked if Bitcoin could reach close to $400,000 by 2030, he said he still believed that goal was realistic.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately US$77,000, still nearly 39% below the all-time high of US$126,198 set in October 2025. Multiple data indicators demonstrate the scale of this forecast:

·Bitcoin needs to rise by about 420% from US$77,000;

·Its price needs to rise by nearly 5.2 times;

·The target will be 217% higher than the October 2025 record;

·As circulation reaches 20 million units, its market value will approach US$8 trillion.

In an interview broadcast on CNBC, Armstrong emphasized: "I think it is reasonable to achieve this goal by 2030." It should be noted that such statements only represent personal opinions and not Coinbase's official forecasts. Executives did not elaborate on the market value model that could accurately support a $400,000 valuation. This calculation is mainly based on the assumption that institutional and individual demand will continue to grow faster than available supply.

Armstrong believes the market bottom has passed

First of all, Coinbase's CEO's optimism is based on Bitcoin's historical cycle. These cycles typically last about four years, alternating with mania, pullbacks and recovery phases, followed by the next halving that reduces the mining reward. "I personally think we have seen the bottom of Bitcoin in this cycle," he pointed out. According to comprehensive information, Bitcoin fell to US$57,717 on July 1, and then rebounded to approximately US$79,000 in September.

In addition, Armstrong pointed out that bear markets typically last about a year. In fact, the market has just passed this stage since peaking in October 2025. However, due to the small number of completed cycles, this cannot be a reliable statistical rule.

The next halving, expected to take place around April 2028, also supports his prediction. The incident will halve the amount of new bitcoins allocated to mining companies. As a result, Armstrong expects investors to absorb the impact of this reduction in supply ahead of time in the next two years.

U.S. regulation will also play a role. As a result, executives are mainly focused on the CLARITY Act and future rules that will apply to the industry. Legal clarity will help bring in new money, while political failure could delay the arrival of this scenario.

Bitcoin must first recover the US$81,500 mark

Before considering the US$400,000 target, Bitcoin must confirm that it has emerged from the bear market. At the beginning of this month, its 50-week moving average was approximately $81,473. Prices have not yet been able to achieve a sustainable close above this level.

According to a study by Galaxy Research, four of the five previous bear markets fell below the moving average and confirmed that a bottom had been formed. Therefore, a weekly close above this threshold will strengthen Brian Armstrong's analysis.

Positive signals first emerged in the rebound in August. During the month, Bitcoin rose 25.4%, and U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted $3.4 billion in inflows. However, part of the market stems from the covering of short positions and momentum-related acquisitions. Such capital flows could quickly disappear.

As ETFs and corporate coffers become increasingly important, the halving effect may diminish. As a result, interest rates, global liquidity and regulatory decisions may have a stronger impact on markets.

Taken together, the two price points of $81,500 and $126,198 represent the first verifiable step. Without a sustained breakthrough, Bitcoin's reach of $400,000 will only be a long-term scenario rather than a certain trajectory.