Bitcoin blocked around $77,100, with weekly net outflows of $462 million from ETF
On Friday, Bitcoin prices traded around $77,100, having breached the $82,000 mark in previous weeks but encountered significant resistance. The cryptocurrency's upward momentum has slowed as prices approach the technology-intensive and chain-bound obstacles identified by blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.
Resistance for Long-term Holders and Key Technology
According to CryptoQuant, investors who have held Bitcoin for a long time sold as much as 539,000 BTC during the 30-day cycle in 2026. These sales occurred mainly in the price range of $77,100 to $80,200, forming a concentrated supply area. Within this area, sellers may actively defend their positions as prices rise.
Currently, Bitcoin prices are still below the 365-day moving average of US$81,700. This technical point repeatedly rejected a rebound in prices in early September. CryptoQuant pointed out that the daily closing price standing above the moving average is confirmation of the new bull market stage, not a temporary breakthrough.
The resistance zone between $77,100 and $80,200 is particularly eye-catching because it contains the chips released by long-term holders accumulated in previous market cycles. Every attempt to break through this range will encounter selling pressure, and failed attempts often prompt these investors to take further profits.
CryptoQuant said that if Bitcoin can decisively break through $81,700, the next target resistance level will be $83,600 (defined by its network valuation model), followed by a $88,700 trader realization price band. If these points cannot be clearly exceeded, Bitcoin may continue to be limited by existing supply pressures.
If Bitcoin reverses, analysts point out that the 200-day moving average near US$70,000 will be the primary major support level. There is a larger accumulation zone between US$62,000 and US$65,000, with approximately 476,000 BTC added to this zone this year.
ETF capital flows highlight changes in demand
This week, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF experienced significant capital changes, with net outflows for four consecutive days. On Friday, the fund's net redemptions totaled $13.29 million, and despite trading volume reaching $2.6 billion, total outflows throughout the week still reached $462.73 million.
Continued ETF withdrawals are consistent with Bitcoin trading below a local resistance band of $77,100. Analysts pointed out that although institutional redemptions occurred simultaneously with price struggles, this did not constitute decisive evidence of causality. However, the data suggests that institutional investors have not provided sustained support in the face of supply pressures from above during this period.
In contrast, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF received $216.41 million in inflows on Friday, completing its fourth consecutive week of net inflows. Although differences in capital flows do not directly indicate a shift in funds from Bitcoin to Ethereum, this selective demand highlights a shift in institutional investor sentiment.
Analysts suggest that Bitcoin must break through $81,700 strongly before it can shift the focus to the $83,600 valuation cap and test the $88,700 trader cost base cluster. Failure to do this could lead to repeated testing of current supply areas and could fall to established support levels.
CryptoQuant emphasized that the future path depends on overcoming layers of resistance, with every price point above $77,100 representing a potential obstacle for buyers. Continued ETF outflows and sell-offs by long-term holders further strengthen the view that market demand needs to be increased before a sustainable breakthrough can be identified.

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