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BTC Analysts interpret Bitcoin price rebound: Key resistance determines future trends
Analysts at CryptoQuant commented on Bitcoin's recent significant price recovery. In just a few weeks, the price of Bitcoin climbed from below $65,000 to more than $82,000. More specifically, they analyzed the subsequent price rejection and possible next trends. Although they believe that the overall market structure remains constructive, cryptocurrencies must overcome a series of resistance levels on the technical chain that are close at hand.
Which price will determine the fate of Bitcoin?
The weekly report published by CryptoQuant points out that Bitcoin's 365-day moving average (currently at US$81,700) is the most important technical position for the asset. Looking back, Bitcoin briefly broke through this level in early September, but the bears immediately stepped forward and quickly rejected the upward trend. From historical experience, once the closing price of cryptocurrencies stands above this moving average, the bull market is considered to have started "officially". If it successfully closes above US$81,700, it may confirm a new round of bullish periods and open the channel for the next round of sharp gains. However, if we continue to fail to break through this barrier, it may lead to a longer period of consolidation and even a deeper decline.
It is worth noting that just crossing the $81,700 barrier does not fully confirm Bitcoin's rebound trend, as there are several other resistance levels above. First, CryptoQuant points to the 3 times Metcalfe Valuation Band, which is at $83,600, the next major resistance level. This level prevented Bitcoin from rising in May and has repeatedly coincided with important cyclical turning points.
If this resistance level is breached, there is also a line of defense above it at $88,700, which is the Upper Band for traders to realize prices. Historical data shows that when cryptocurrencies approach this line, selling pressure tends to intensify as active traders start holding increasingly large unrealized profits.
Analysis of Proximal Supply Wall and Support Levels
CryptoQuant pointed out that the most immediate problem currently lies in the selling pressure of long-term holders. This year, long-term holders have sold as many as 539,000 bitcoins in the price range of $77,100 to $80,200, creating what analysts call "the heaviest supply wall on the near-end chain." Bitcoin needs to absorb this supply before launching its next strong upward attempt, and the downward support level is relatively clear.
The 200-day moving average of around $70,000 represents the first major technical support level, followed by another significant on-chain cluster, between $62,000 and $65,000, with approximately 476,000 bitcoins accumulated in this range this year. Overall, CQ analysts are still optimistic about Bitcoin, but there is a key prerequisite: assets must clear the resistance of US$81,700 as soon as possible, then break through US$83,600, and finally overcome US$88,700, before the recovery trend can turn into a deeper and strong rebound.
